The SEC Forum at College Football Fan Site, CFB51!!!

I was hoping Arkansas and A&M would remain hapless and underperform their talent, so that Ole Miss would be our only loss in October and help our (increasingly un)realistic goal of getting to 9-3.  But they both look pretty good when not shooting themselves in the foot.  In particular, if Arkansas can turn their yards into points at a better clip, they look like a team that can punch anybody and get away with it. 

Heck, even Florida showed signs of life (and let's face it, Mertz was gonna shred LSU's pathetic D no matter what), and even Vanderbilt used a triple option look to light up a far better defense than ours.  And there's OU, who hasn't looked great, but is certainly capable of winning. 

Suddenly, every game left looks loseable. 

Good thing I'm a Longhorn fan now.  

I was hoping Arkansas and A&M would remain hapless and underperform their talent, so that Ole Miss would be our only loss in October and help our (increasingly un)realistic goal of getting to 9-3.  But they both look pretty good when not shooting themselves in the foot.  In particular, if Arkansas can turn their yards into points at a better clip, they look like a team that can punch anybody and get away with it. 

Heck, even Florida showed signs of life (and let's face it, Mertz was gonna shred LSU's pathetic D no matter what), and even Vanderbilt used a triple option look to light up a far better defense than ours.  And there's OU, who hasn't looked great, but is certainly capable of winning. 

Suddenly, every game left looks loseable.

Good thing I'm a Longhorn fan now. 

Geez...LSU got screwed on their schedule.  Games left V OM, A&M, Alabama, and OU.  

Geez...LSU got screwed on their schedule.  Games left V OM, A&M, Alabama, and OU. 

?? 

LSU's schedule has been viewed as pretty favorable, avoiding UGA, Texas, and Tennessee, and the toughest teams, Ole Miss and Alabama, having to play in BR.  Also, there were no tough conference games early on, allowing the team to reach full potential (lol) before the hardest games get here. 

This has been considered a good year for the team to still be rebuilding and aim for 9 wins and grab the 10th with a bowl victory.

Insert opinion here as to whether a team with a third year coach should still be rebuilding...

Texas misses several heavyweights, sure, but with a handful of top teams, that's probably par for the course.  It would be unlikely, not to mention a bit unfair, if a team caught all of the tough teams.  Texas gets UGA, and then as mentioned, several of the other teams are looking better than previously expected.  Then there's the identity property....Texas is one of the teams other teams would prefer to avoid for an easier schedule, and since Texas can't play themselves, they have that much less of a chance of drawing a high number of the "elite" teams, because there's less of them when you are one of them. 

Plus there's just a lot of teams in the league now, with only 8 conference games.  Everyone misses a lot of other teams.  I'm not so sure that the league is less tough than it was, as much as the good teams aren't as likely to show up on any one schedule.  

Overall, I look at Texas' schedule similar to LSU's....favorable, but still can't be taken lightly.  And since I think UT is a top team, I expect them to perform well against it.  Which is what folks should be watching for.  Not how good is the league or how many tough teams did UT draw.....rather, how do they do against the schedule they're given.  

For LSU, I'd call 9-3 a win.  For Texas, I think they can get through with 1 loss or less, and if they do, it's as much a signal of the quality of the team as much or more than a function of the schedule.  Besides, if UT makes the SECCG and the playoffs, there'll be that many more tough games to judge the team by.  If you do well there, then "they got an easy schedule" won't fly even with the homerest of homers. 

Maybe. 

One thing worth noting is Texas' schedule is full of old foes, and most everyone understands that throws regular SOS assessments out the window.  OU, A&M and Arkansas aren't as good (I think) as Texas, but it should shock absolutely no one if any of them played out of their minds against Texas and either won or gave them all they wanted.  It's really not an easy schedule, imo.  Favorable, yes.  Easy?  Well, winning games is hard, so, no. 

Arkansas looks much improved.  Georgia will be tough.  OU will be tough as always.  And the last game could be an all time barn burner. 

Yup, plenty of tough games on the schedule.  No different now, than it was 2 months ago before the season, or two years ago when it was announced.

It's tough for any team to go undefeated.  Despite his great success, Saban only did it twice.  And one of those was a COVID asterisk season.

We long time SECers are facile at contorting any set of data to fit our notions. 

True... true.  Good point.  It'll probably take me years to get the hang of that.

I think a rivalry is defined, in part, as being one where the underdog wins more often than is usually the case.

They also are usually intrastate or with border states, I'd guess ND has an exception with USC.  They also usually are nationally significant but not always.

I wonder if betting the "dog" consistently is a winning approach.