The PAC Forum at College Football Fan Site, CFB51!!!

According to this AZCentral article Jim Mora has the nation's hottest hot seat with 1-9 odds of being the first fired. Within the conference it's a three way race between RichRod, Graham, and Mora, but nationally I'm betting Butch Jones (Tennessee), Kelly (Notre Dame), and Sumlin (TX A&M) are on shorter leashes. If Mora/RichRod/Graham's were coaching at any of those three schools and delivering the W/L results they have they'd already be on the street.

Of the four Pac 12 coaches hired in 2012 - I wouldn't've predicted Leach would be in the most stable position given way much more difficult the Washington State rebuild was.

http://www.azcentral.com/story/sports/heat-index/2017/07/06/college-football-coaches-hot-seat-todd-graham-rich-rodriguez/455386001/

Of the four Pac 12 coaches hired in 2012 - I wouldn't've predicted Leach would be in the most stable position given way much more difficult the Washington State rebuild was.

This. I didn't think Leach would be a disaster or anything, but I never would have guessed he was on the least hot seat between Graham, RRod, Mora, and himself.

FWIW, I think Graham may have the tougher road to hoe to keep the gig even with a more realistic expectation level.

At least Mora has the pieces to reel off the 9-10 wins (maybe even 8) he needs to buy some time.  If Rosen comes back and is Rosen again 8 wins is do-able, 9 just needs some luck, and 10 would need everything to go right.  The O-line didn't lose much and has room to improve, the receivers are good, the RB's need to get going but Rosen passing well would help, and while the D wasn't great last year (especially at 4th down) there are athletes and the problems are fixable (seriously fixing 4th down equals 2-3 more wins right there) with the current roster.  For UCLA, it is more about staying healthy (esp Rosen) and fixing a number of little things.

Graham may not have the pieces he needs and at least some fo the fixes needed are big time.  The most glaringly obvious is the usual--another bad O-line.  In all fairness this problem preceded Graham and has basically been a perennial issue since whatsisname, the former Boise coach.  But ASU has given up 38 sacks in each of the last five seasons, last year was not a good one with 41 sacks, and this year could be worse.  Basically, with the O-line problems Graham is in the unenviable position of having to put a lot of his chips on either an unknown talent (Barnett, a transfer from a great but staid Bama offense) or a known but ho-hum QB (Wilkins 12TD, 9 INT) and have both cut off at the knees by a poor O-line no matter which bet he takes.  And no matter which way he goes there the opponents are going to be able to bomb away at their leisure on last year's worst pass D and pass rush, which doesn't have the horses to make noticeable improvement likely.  The bet here for Graham is probably to double down on a run defense that was serviceable at times and hope it stymies a few middling teams that rely heavily on the run (Utah, Oregon) and just hope they can't get it done through the air.  The odds say it won't work since Graham's scoring defense stat has slid every single year he's been at ASU.  My guess is that ASU cans him if the team does anything less than 7 wins since the downward trend is apparent in lots of stats, but I guess there is an outside chance they extend him a year if he eeks out 6 wins so long as they stomp Arizona (who may be pretty stomp-able this year).  The problem is that the schedule is not too hot.  Play the Six Win Puzzle with me below:

New Mexico State   (Almost certain W)
San Diego State    (50/50, SDSU is 2 time MWC champ rebuilding on O, but loaded on a very reliable D)
At Texas Tech aka "No Tackling Game of the Year"  (51/49 win, was shootout last year and teams are mirror images)
Oregon      (50/50, UO probably improves noticeably but until new coach tested who knows?)
At Stanford    (L)
Bye Week
Washington    (L)
At Utah   (L, see the "At")
USC     (L)
Colorado (probable L, even rebuilding CU has much much less to fix) 
At UCLA  (no more than puncher's chance, see the "At")
At Oregon State  (50/50, Devils are probably better, but away)
Arizona (probable W)

See the problem getting to 6 wins?  There is really only one guaranteed W on the schedule and only one other probable W, as opposed to three near certain losses and three likely losses (@UU, CU, @UCLA).  And getting to 7 wins?  Nearly impossible unless the Bama transfer QB is the next coming of Jake the Snake Plummer or something.  Just a very tough schedule for Graham to run into during a tough rebuilding year

Sorry, that didn't start so windy in my head but it sure veered that way.

Graham may not have the pieces he needs and at least some fo the fixes needed are big time.  The most glaringly obvious is the usual--another bad O-line.  In all fairness this problem preceded Graham and has basically been a perennial issue since whatsisname, the former Boise coach.  But ASU has given up 38 sacks in each of the last five seasons, last year was not a good one with 41 sacks, and this year could be worse.  Basically, with the O-line problems Graham is in the unenviable position of having to put a lot of his chips on either an unknown talent (Barnett, a transfer from a great but staid Bama offense) or a known but ho-hum QB (Wilkins 12TD, 9 INT) and have both cut off at the knees by a poor O-line no matter which bet he takes.  And no matter which way he goes there the opponents are going to be able to bomb away at their leisure on last year's worst pass D and pass rush, which doesn't have the horses to make noticeable improvement likely.

PR, From gleaning the usual ASU internet haunts and reading the latest from their beat writers (Haller & Metcalf) there's cautious optimism for the OL; at this point it's a matter of selecting the starting five and strategizing a rotation for four backups that have emerged since the spring. (IMO the QB and especially the secondary are the more concerning problems.) ASU is loaded at WR; it's one of the best receiving corps in the nation. If the offense can be predicated on quickly getting the ball to the WRs and letting them do the rest, while also opening a run game given the experience at RB, the offense will be in dependable shape. In other words, the hope for the OL is to only require 2 seconds of cohesive blocking to get by on play after play. But getting the ball out quickly is the problem. From the practice reports Manny isn't looking much better (against the second string) than what we've seen before and Barnett's delivery is looking slower than a bingo call. But all in all there's plenty of useful pieces on the offensive side of the ball.

On the other side I'm hearing the secondary is still in such bad shape it could lead to another lost year for the defense. Recent quotes from the beat writers include the secondary is an "open audition" and there's "basically no depth chart." Wide receivers and athletes from the track team are being tried out at corner and safety. If that's any kind of warning, I don't see how ASU's defense doesn't again give up another nation's near worst through the air.

You'd think with Graham's background he would have teams that actually play defense. It's kinda weird. 478 points allowed last year??


How do you explain this?

Swung for the fences his first few seasons recruiting DBs and whiffed with very few/poor backup plans. That's pretty much 98% of it right there.

Being as unbiased as I can here but honestly I think RRod has the least to work with going into this season. Uofa's only prayer at 6+ wins is if their RBs stay healthy which has been a big issue for them the past few seasons.

Being as unbiased as I can here but honestly I think RRod has the least to work with going into this season. Uofa's only prayer at 6+ wins is if their RBs stay healthy which has been a big issue for them the past few seasons.

6 wins + Bowl is my great hope for this coming season. If Arizona ever needed a bounce back schedule this is it - and I'm not so sure Utah and Colorado aren't winnable games given their very high volume roster of turnover and early scheduling. Throw in getting Cal, WSU, & Oregon St instead of UW & Stanford and the set up couldn't be better for an ambush here and there.

However, RichRod's tenure has staled into the inept defense and high QB & assistant coaching turnover that Wildcat fans don't expect addressed, much less actually corrected, until a new coach comes to old Tucson.

Simply put RichRod waited way too long (neglected) to recruit the numbers (and quality) needed for depth and rotation on a D1 DL. And though the roster numbers at LB and in the secondary are adequate the talent is questionable. I envy UCLA's defense of athletes with scholarship offers from across the nation, whereas most of Arizona's defensive players have maybe an offer or two from the MTN West; usually no other P5 interest.

And speaking of UCLA, though I agree RichRod has the least to work with (his fault) the leash on Mora (and Graham) is shorter. A winning season might buy RichRod a mini contract extension, whereas a successful, Rosen-powered season in Westwood only buys Mora the next year, similarly to Tom Crean at Indiana basketball winning the 2016 Big Ten conference and only earning one more year before getting canned during that very next year. Mora is one bad season away from getting fired, even if that last bad season comes on the heels of several more 8/9 win seasons.