~2020 NFL Season Thread~

[FearlessF]

an indoor stadium has many cubic feet of air, very few droplets of virus

but, I understand it

[medinabuckeye1]

Steelers and Ravens are my picks in AFC to make it to Super Bowl. Kansas City defense looks worse this year vs last, and they made and won the SB by the skin of their teeth and it was because Mahomes got white hot in the playoffs. Players typically don't have those kind of runs back to back years. Rodgers had an incredible playoff run that one year when Green Bay won the SB- and they haven't been back since.

IMHO, neither the Browns nor the Steelers are as good as their respective records.  Last week a lot of Browns fans in this area were pointing out that Pittsburgh was 3-0 against three teams that were a combined 0-9.  Then on Sunday the Steelers finally beat a team with a win (Philly, 1-3-1) and two of their previous victims (Denver and Houston) got wins so now I'm hearing that they are 4-0 but their opponents are a combined 3-15-1 which is both true and pathetic. 

As a Browns "fan", I'd love to gloat about that but the Browns SoS isn't significantly better except for the fact that the the Browns played Baltimore.  That might be impressive if the Browns had beaten or at least been competitive with the Ravens but they weren't.  The Browns got run off the field by the Ravens (38-6).  The Browns five opponents are 11-13-1 which isn't bad and a lot better than Pittsburgh's opponents but the four teams that Cleveland has defeated are a combined 7-12-1 which is only marginally better than Pittsburgh's victims' 3-15-1.  

So the Browns and Steelers have eight combined wins.  Here they are sorted by record of opponent:

• Cleveland beat 3-2 Indy by 9
• Cleveland beat 2-3 Dallas by 11
• Pittsburgh beat 1-3-1 Philly by 9
• Cleveland beat 1-3-1 Cincy by 5
• Pittsburgh beat 1-3 Denver by 5
• Cleveland beat 1-4 Washington by 14
• Pittsburgh beat 0-5 NYG by 10

The concerning thing is that not only are their eight victims basically terrible but neither Cleveland nor Pittsburgh has been lighting these bad opponents up either.  The biggest MOV by either team was Cleveland's two TD win over Washington.  By way of comparison, here are Baltimore's games:

• Beat 4-1 Cleveland by 32
• Lost to 4-1 KC by 14
• Beat 1-3-1 Cincy by 24
• Beat 1-4 Houston by 17
• Beat 1-4 Washington by 14

Those are vastly better results than anything either the Browns or Steelers can point to. 

That said, I do think there is a decent chance that the Browns could be a playoff team this year.  Here are all of their opponents sorted by current record:

If the Browns beat the teams that are 3-2 and worse (as they have done so far) that would get them to 11-5 with two losses each to Baltimore and Pittsburgh and the fifth loss being to Tennessee.  11-5 is almost a sure thing to get a playoff bid. 

I don't think the Browns will actually go 11-5.  My guess is that they'll win one of the remaining four games against teams 4-1 or better and lose two of the remaining seven games against teams 3-2 or worse.  Thus, my prediction is 10-6 and either a fringe playoff team or barely out. 

The Browns might actually be better than the Steelers this year but neither of them are as good as the Ravens and it isn't close. 

[medinabuckeye1]

With all of the above said, it is still exciting for Clevelanders that it looks like there will be meaningful NFL football in Cleveland into December and probably even January: 

The Browns host the Ravens on December 14 then travel to NY for back-to-back games against NY's two NFL teams which are currently a combined 0-10.  Finally, the Browns host the Steelers in the last game of the regular season on January 3, 2021. 

If the NFL Playoffs started today the AFC seeds would be:

• AFC-S Champions Tennessee 4-0
• AFC-N Champions Pittsburgh 4-0
• AFC-W Champions KC 4-1
• AFC-E Champions Buffalo 4-1
• Wildcard Baltimore 4-1
• Wildcard Cleveland 4-1
• Wildcard Vegas 3-2
• out Indy 3-2
• out New England 2-2

Thus, the divisional round match-ups would be:

• #1 seed Tennessee, bye
• #7 Vegas at #2 Pittsburgh
• #6 Cleveland at #3 KC
• #5 Baltimore at #4 Buffalo

However, as I said above, I think that Baltimore is, by far, the best team in the AFC-N.  Consequently, my guess is that the Browns will lose to them at home on December 14 (albeit a lot closer than the 38-6 shellacking to open the season in Baltimore).  That loss will eliminate any practical (if not mathematical) chance of the Browns winning the Division but the Browns should rebound with wins over the two hapless NYC teams then come home to face Pittsburgh in the regular season finale.  That game most likely will be either for a playoff spot or for playoff seeding for both teams. 

Seeding can be very important.  If we assume that Baltimore will win the AFC-N then as of right now the Browns/Steelers games will determine which team gets the #5 seed (and the worst Division Champion in the Wildcard round).  That would appear to be the AFC-E Champion (probably either Buffalo or New England).  If the January 3, 2021 Pitt@Cle game is for the #5 seed that could be huge.  If the #4 seed is a questionable Buffalo team while the #3 is a very strong Baltimore, KC, or Tennessee then there is a humongous difference between being the #5 and travelling to a winnable game in Buffalo compared to being the #6 seed and being basically cannon-fodder in Baltimore, KC, or Nashville. 

[medinabuckeye1]

AFC Predictions roughly 1/3 of the way through the season:

• AFC-S Champion Tennessee:  They are 1.5 games up and I don't think they'll be caught.  
• AFC-N Champion Baltimore:  The Ravens are 0.5 games down on the Steelers but that is just because the Ravens have played opponents with a pulse and the Steelers haven't.  The Ravens are also tied with Cleveland but beat the Browns 38-6 to open the season.  
• AFC-W Champion KC:  I think the Chiefs are easily the best team in the AFC-W.   
• AFC-E Champion New England:  The Pats are 2.5 games down on the Bills so this may seem like a reach but Buffalo has been mostly escaping with close wins.  I think New England is the better team and will come out on top.  
• Wildcard Buffalo:  They are 0.5 down to Pitt and tied with Cleveland but I think they'll win that provided that the Browns and Steelers split their series.  
• Wildcard Cleveland:  They are 0.5 down on Pitt but I think they'll win that.  
• Wildcard Pittsburgh:  I think they'll get caught by Baltimore (in the Division) and Buffalo and Cleveland in the wildcard race but they'll still finish ahead of the rest.  

Thus the Wildcard round match-ups and predictions are:

• #1 Tennessee, bye
• #7 Pittsburgh at #2 Baltimore:  Baltimore wins easily.  
• #6 Cleveland at #3 KC:  KC wins easily.  
• #5 Buffalo at #4 New England:  New England wins.  

Those predictions are chalk so the Divisional Round match-ups and predictions are:

• #4 New England at #1 Tennessee:  Tennessee wins.  
• #3 KC at #2 Baltimore:  Baltimore wins.  

The AFC Championship would thus be:

• #2 Baltimore at #1 Tennessee:  Baltimore wins.  

[MrNubbz]

Browns on the road to take on the Squeelers.Have had good luck not watching

[ELA]

Browns looking very much like the product of an easy schedule.  Baker benched.

[Mdot21]

Browns looking very much like the product of an easy schedule.  Baker benched.

Baker is inconsistent as hell. 

Steelers easily have one of the top 3-5 defenses in the NFL. They have an excellent front 7 and the addition of Minkah Fitzpatrick was huge for a secondary that was lacking play-makers.

[ELA]

Baker is inconsistent as hell.

Steelers easily have one of the top 3-5 defenses in the NFL. They have an excellent front 7 and the addition of Minkah Fitzpatrick was huge for a secondary that was lacking play-makers.

Thats the thing with the NFL.  Minkah Fitzpatrick on the Dolphins or Joe Haden on the Browns is an unnecessary luxury.  You throw them on the Steelers, with other good players, they are amazing.

[CatsbyAZ]

Browns on the road to take on the Squeelers.Have had good luck not watching

So glad my local market switched over to the Patriots eventually losing to the Broncos. Watching Packers-Bucs.

[Mdot21]

Bucs are destroying the Packers. Didn't think that would happen. At all. Thought it'd be close and Pack would actually win by 3-7 pts.

If not for the 1,000x penalties on the OL and the personal foul on that dumb center who head-butted a Bears LB'er- which those penalties killed all Tampa's good drives last week vs the Bears- this team would be 5-1 right now and maybe the leader in the pack for the #1 seed in the NFC, instead of 4-2.

How the F are the Bears 5-1 again? That offense is such trash. That defense is excellent though.

Edit: also- how in the world did the Patriots lose to the Broncos? 

[FearlessF]

I enjoy watching the Packers take a beating, especially when Rogers is frustrated and acting like a bitch

I had money on the Packers.  Didn't see this coming, but I'll enjoy it

[Mdot21]

Someone should ask Packers RB Jamal Williams what down is it. Down 38 to 10. Lol.

[rook119]

Bucs are destroying the Packers. Didn't think that would happen. At all. Thought it'd be close and Pack would actually win by 3-7 pts.

If not for the 1,000x penalties on the OL and the personal foul on that dumb center who head-butted a Bears LB'er- which those penalties killed all Tampa's good drives last week vs the Bears- this team would be 5-1 right now and maybe the leader in the pack for the #1 seed in the NFC, instead of 4-2.

How the F are the Bears 5-1 again? That offense is such trash. That defense is excellent though.

Edit: also- how in the world did the Patriots lose to the Broncos?

Foles always fascinates me. He usually looks no different than any interchangable backup QB but seems to have a knack for pulling out of his behind when you need it most. Not in a game winning drive kinda way, but if its 3rd and 5 and a 1st ices the game, he'll get you 5 yards and 2 inches. 

[rook119]

AFC Predictions roughly 1/3 of the way through the season:

• AFC-S Champion Tennessee:  They are 1.5 games up and I don't think they'll be caught. 
• AFC-N Champion Baltimore:  The Ravens are 0.5 games down on the Steelers but that is just because the Ravens have played opponents with a pulse and the Steelers haven't.  The Ravens are also tied with Cleveland but beat the Browns 38-6 to open the season. 
• AFC-W Champion KC:  I think the Chiefs are easily the best team in the AFC-W. 
• AFC-E Champion New England:  The Pats are 2.5 games down on the Bills so this may seem like a reach but Buffalo has been mostly escaping with close wins.  I think New England is the better team and will come out on top. 
• Wildcard Buffalo:  They are 0.5 down to Pitt and tied with Cleveland but I think they'll win that provided that the Browns and Steelers split their series. 
• Wildcard Cleveland:  They are 0.5 down on Pitt but I think they'll win that. 
• Wildcard Pittsburgh:  I think they'll get caught by Baltimore (in the Division) and Buffalo and Cleveland in the wildcard race but they'll still finish ahead of the rest. 

Thus the Wildcard round match-ups and predictions are:

• #1 Tennessee, bye
• #7 Pittsburgh at #2 Baltimore:  Baltimore wins easily. 
• #6 Cleveland at #3 KC:  KC wins easily. 
• #5 Buffalo at #4 New England:  New England wins. 

Those predictions are chalk so the Divisional Round match-ups and predictions are:

• #4 New England at #1 Tennessee:  Tennessee wins. 
• #3 KC at #2 Baltimore:  Baltimore wins. 

The AFC Championship would thus be:

• #2 Baltimore at #1 Tennessee:  Baltimore wins. 

Would definitely put the Ravens behind KC, Tenn, and Pittsburgh right now. Buffalo has also impressed me more. I think the Pats are also in the mix even though their record doesn't show it. 

The Ravens blitz all the time Gerg Williams approved gimmick defense will sure break the likes of Burrow and Daniel Jones in half but any offense w/ a pulse like KC will eat it alive.