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The problem with Putin is that even if he wins, he loses, majorly.  I can't think of any good outcome for him at this point that makes him better off than before he invaded.

Right, I was wondering what the downside is of Russia not having Ukraine or Crimea or any of it?  Is there any reason they're doing this other than simply wanting to?

The United States has a pretty big track record of getting its hands on everything and threatening military action if we don't get our way. This is going to affect how other countries act.

Speaking of which, the U.S. exercised this very track record to blow apart Poland's offered help to Ukraine's skies earlier this week:

"The Pentagon on Tuesday rejected Poland’s surprise announcement that it would give the United States its MiG-29 fighter jets for use by Ukraine, a rare display of disharmony by NATO allies seeking to boost Ukrainian fighters while avoiding getting caught up in a wider war with Russia. Pentagon spokesman John Kirby said Poland’s declaration that it intended to deliver the 28 jets to the U.S. Ramstein Air Base in Germany raised the concerning prospect of warplanes departing from a U.S. and NATO base to fly into airspace contested with Russia in the Ukraine conflict."

It's worth wondering if this "rare display of disharmony" by the U.S. is a sign of our State Department willing to aid Ukraine enough with things like statements of "solidarity," deploying troops to set up refugee camps in Poland, sanctions, urging U.S. companies to wind down business in Russia, etc. But NOT willing to help Ukraine enough to potentially tip the scales against Russia, for example with fighter jets.

If so, is our State Department egging on a protracted conflict meant to bleed the Russian military, regardless of how many Ukrainians are also killed, no matter how many refugees result west into Europe, and no matter how much Ukraine's cities mirror Dresden of February 1945?


https://twitter.com/AP/status/1501356012024041474

The issue there is flying those fighters from Ramstein to Ukraine with US pilots would be, well dangerous.  The initial idea was to fly them with Polish pilots, which also would be touchy.

Probably the solution is to get Ukrainian pilots into Poland to take them.

I see a lot of people saying stuff like this.  I don't buy it for a second.

There are now two generations of Russians that never knew the CCCP, never knew bread lines, and have nothing in common with their ancestors that were notorious for bearing hardships.  They also know the world far beyond what the state-owned media ever allowed their parents and grandparents to see.  Putin is struggling to control the narrative even from state-media sources, and newer generations have had access beyond that.  Even with Facebook and instagram shut down, Youtube and Tik Tok have still been able to penetrate.

This ain't your dad's Russia.  And I don't expect them to just stoically accept their lot.

Oh I don’t disagree.  But my fear is- what can they/ will they do about it. 

my point is- how does Putin react.  I am not confident he reacts in the way most of the rest of humanity wants him to.

And Cincy- I am not questioning what has been done or suggesting any different strategy.  That’s above my pay grade. 

Just watching a deadly game from the stands, trying to figure out if it expands into the stands and out of the stadium, since conditions are quickly worsening on the field, in the stands, and beyond- and the main combatant is not stable or predictable. 

I wonder if the Russian rocket force commanders would follow a Putin order for a first strike.