Except that the threat isn't of an invasion of Russia by Ukraine. Literally none of history suggests that. NATO has been a defensive alliance for ~70 years with a track record of, well, not invading Russia. The former Soviet Bloc states that wanted to join NATO did so not to invade Russia, but to be protected from it. Russia has piles and piles of nuclear weapons and MAD is still a thing, so he's got quite the deterrent against invasion, should it occur [which it won't]. The idea that Ukraine is a "threat" because they they have weapons and want to join a defensive military alliance is only a "threat" if you have plans to invade at some point and don't want them to be able to protect themselves. this is hilariously one-sided thinking. NATO = the good guys. Just defensive, eh. Why? Because we say so? Iraq and Afghanistan blunders- just defensive, right? Bombing the shit out of Yugoslavia, just defensive, right? Syria, Libya, just defensive right? NATO members collaborated with their leader- the US in all of these misadventures. Call it whatever you want- but it's a
MILITARY ALLIANCE. Lead by what is
by far the most powerful military and country on planet earth. NATO by the way, was created
before The Warsaw Pact. The Warsaw Pact was created 6 or 7 years after NATO and was created as a
response to NATO and to the remilitarization of West Germany. I'm sure they were thinking: a re-armed Germany- the country that had
literally just killed tens of millions of people and wrecked the entire world twice from 1914 to 1945 - what could possibly go wrong?
NATO is a toy of the worlds greatest superpower, the United States- used to protect energy supply chains and shipping lanes and to maintain hegemony over Europe. That's basically what it is in a nutshell. Russia has valid reason not to trust and to be weary of the US. Only a nation of absolute
fools would trust the United States. Damn near every single US player from the Cold War era condemned, railed, and warned against Clinton and Bush II's expansion of NATO. Almost everyone.
Ukraine in NATO is viewed as unacceptable for Russia. It would devastate their defensive lines- and make it impossible for them to halt any kind of land invasion. MAD would be a thing for sure that you could argue would bring peace of mind against invasion- if the ABM Treaty wasn't ripped to shreds in 2002- by.....the United States. IF serious breakthroughs were made by ABM tech- and US had high capability to destroy Russian nukes- they gain first strike capability and MAD is a thing of the past. The possibility that this might happen- you can bet Russian military planners have thought about it.
This video right here from about 4 min to 9 min mark....does a
great job explaining the importance Ukraine to them in terms of geography to push back any potential land invasion- and why they don't really care too much about the Baltics as a threat...because they could easily surround and cut the Baltics off in the event of invasion...a Ukraine in NATO- they'd be wide open to invasion with no way to stop it.
VIDEO https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=If61baWF4GE