Wolves vs 'Dawgs Thread

[betarhoalphadelta]

It’s just computer rankings. The answer to almost any question about lines is computer rankings

That's a little funny... Vegas, the ones with hundreds of millions of dollars on the line in any year of sports betting, mostly follows computer rankings to ensure 50/50 betting splits. And as my former coworker (part-time bookie) told me, when you see a line moving a lot due to lopsided bets, it's best to bet the other way, because usually it's the BETTORS that got it wrong, not Vegas. 

But the fans and TPTB hated computer rankings SO much in the BCS era that they had to eliminate them entirely to remain a beauty pageant.

[OrangeAfroMan]

But the fans and TPTB hated computer rankings SO much in the BCS era that they had to eliminate them entirely to remain a beauty pageant.

Ugh, don't get me started.  

[Cincydawg]

It’s just computer rankings. The answer to almost any question about lines is computer rankings

I have never seen this asserted.  I thought the initial line would be set by "pros from Dover".  Then it would move depending on the betting.  Vegas has no reason to take a stake in any game, they win every time if they balance the betting volume.  It's a sure thing.

I'd imagine they could have an algorithm to help guide the initial line, but computer rankings get bizarre especially early in the season.

[FearlessF]

seems impressive to me that the initial lines usually don't move much unless there's an injury or other reason for a player or players to not play

they seem to nail it 90% of the time

[Cincydawg]

Yeah, the initial lines are 90%+ on point, they know their betters apparently.

[bayareabadger]

I have never seen this asserted.  I thought the initial line would be set by "pros from Dover".  Then it would move depending on the betting.  Vegas has no reason to take a stake in any game, they win every time if they balance the betting volume.  It's a sure thing.

I'd imagine they could have an algorithm to help guide the initial line, but computer rankings get bizarre especially early in the season.

So, a writer at one point noted that CBB lines are almost all within a few points of the KenPom projection. I thought it wouldn't make sense to use him as a base in one sport, but not another. 

And, in fact, most computer rankings are built to mimic and improve on Vegas power ratings, often for the sake of beating Vegas (and it often worked). So those oddsmakers just absorbed the methods being used to beat them. Let me put it this way, if I see a weird line, I check SP+ or FPI, and 90 percent of the time, I see why the line is weird. 

The preseason stuff tends to use a blend of info that serve as good predictors. Things like recruiting rankings and recent success factor in there. And as you get more games, other data filters out. 

[Cincydawg]

I had thought humans set the lines using a variety of metrics, including various computer rankings.  I doubt they are set completely by some computer.  They do a good job generally from what I've seen.