We have around 276 millions autos and light trucks on the US roads, responsible for about 28% of GHGs.. Folks buy around 16 million a year new, about 300,000 have been EVs per year.
Let's imagine, magically, that jumps to 8 million per year, now, somehow. So, if flat, each year for nine years, 8 million more EVs on the road, a tidy 72 million in the fleet now, leaving 200 million NOT EVs, in 2030 (assuming no growth). And we'd need more power from the grid.
We generate in the US about 5 million metric tons of CO2 per year. How could you cut that in half, in 9 years? Well, you could have a MASSIVE economic downturn of course that would put the COVID recession in the shade, and the Great Depression as well.
The above, which can't happen, would barely dent the 5 GGT per year figure. So, what else? The power sector? Do you think wind and solar are going to make a dent, in nine years? The projection below would be fine, but is not nearly enough. Math.
Whaley said, the current rate of renewable energy deployment will see wind and solar overtaking fossil fuels as the source of the majority of U.S. energy by the early 2030s. Wood Mackenzie expects the renewable sector will continue to enjoy incremental growth through roughly the same time period, with growth beginning to stabilize around 2033.