Perhaps the BEST B1G Forum anywhere, here at College Football Fan Site, CFB51!!!

States previously had prepared temporary hospitals when it appeared capacity was about to be exceeded.  Around here, those were shut down in June, but could be restarted and handle the less severe cases.  I was out today for groceries, no panic buying was apparent thought disinfectant sprays are in short supply stiff.

Georgia's numbers are not that bad, yet.

Houston is calm no panic buying Im aware of

And there you are.

What should we be doing differently, right now?

Honestly I think everyone's hands are tied here. Country won't accept another lockdown. They'll just have friends/family over to their houses. It's what people are doing now anyway. Played golf with one of my homebrew club buddies yesterday, and he was hung over because "we just had a bunch of people over for Halloween." Got home and that evening the neighbors across the street were having a pretty rocking Dia de los Muertos party. 

As stated, I'm guilty too. I'm going out and seeing people outside my household at a WAY higher rate than I was even 2 months ago. 

Lock it down again, and none of that changes unless we have draconian enforcement. 

So, we're basically just going to run the experiment and see what happens. 

Cases have been steadily increasing across Europe since August, 8-10 weeks ago, but the corresponding increase in deaths is minimal compared to what it was last Spring, even accounting for a 3-4 week lag.

Except in the Czech Republic, which I still find perplexing.

We can't really compare to Spring, as the testing was so limited that I don't think the case numbers were meaningful. I'd compare to the Jul/Aug spike, but of course that's hard because Europe was still locked down and didn't have a Jul/Aug spike. Comparing to our own Jul/Aug spike in cases and deaths, though, will give us a lot more data about whether treatments are meaningfully improving of if there's a huge demographic shift in cases. 

We can't really compare to Spring, as the testing was so limited that I don't think the case numbers were meaningful. I'd compare to the Jul/Aug spike, but of course that's hard because Europe was still locked down and didn't have a Jul/Aug spike. Comparing to our own Jul/Aug spike in cases and deaths, though, will give us a lot more data about whether treatments are meaningfully improving of if there's a huge demographic shift in cases.

The testing in Europe in Spring was limited to where it is now, for sure.  But if the current death rate is held constant and applied backward to last Spring, then the number of presumed-but-not-tested positive cases last Spring skyrockets to a really huge number.

Which might prove badgerfan's point, everyone's already had it.  Twice.

I went back and used your assumption of 80% and also using a current death rate of aprox 1.85% of positives and come up with 1,238 daily death average

this is close enough to your number so no need for debate

the question is will the 80% number and the 1.85% number remain constant or will they both decrease over time which is what I think will happen

it will be interesting to see

I hope we are going to be way too high on the estimates

I couldn't offer any reason our case counts would peak and drop short of a vaccine or lock down.  I don't know why we had the ebb in Aub/Sept really either.

The new strain idea is plausible though.

I couldn't offer any reason our case counts would peak and drop short of a vaccine or lock down.  I don't know why we had the ebb in Aub/Sept really either.

The new strain idea is plausible though.

could school openings and football both pro and college have anything to do with it

plus catching it from Europe maybe