Perhaps the BEST B1G Forum anywhere, here at College Football Fan Site, CFB51!!!

I'll say this again-- I think the parts of the country that have been buckled down since mid-March, are only going to be able to continue to the end of April at the longest.  Then, things are going to get ugly.  There are already millions out of work.  Hundreds of thousands starting to starve.

The risk utility function is going to look very, very different if/when those people become violent.

If we don't see a large bend downward over the next week, well, it means our efforts aren't helping.  And THAT means, there's no point in continuing them.

I disagree with this CD left a great link a few pages back.There will be a leveling off and the precautions can play a big roll to start trimming this thing back.This is a classic case of patience is a virtue,throwing caution to the wind would be disasterous at this point

The risk utility function is going to look very, very different if/when those people become violent.

Could get there and hope/pray not

I read "somewhere" it may start doubling every day, not that it has already.  Let's presume it increases by 1.3x each day, that puts us at 160,000 total by April 15, and a like amount "on the way down".  At 1.2x, we hit 76,000 total by mid April.

So, that increase per day factor merits attention.

https://www.wbur.org/commonhealth/2020/04/01/white-house-coronavirus-death-models-scarpino

It's not even close to doubling every day here in the USA, and I'm pretty sure neither Italy nor Spain nor any other country has ever reported daily doubling in deaths.

what is the actual fatality rate? I believe they are saying it’s under 2% in the US. 

But how many millions of people have been exposed to this thing and had little to no symptoms and never got tested. There was a study done by a European country I think it was Sweden or something that suggests that nearly 50% of the people who contract this virus don’t even get sick. 

All I know is, I was sicker than a dog for almost two weeks in the middle of January. Never in my life got that sick from a regular flu. I think it’s possible that I may have already had this thing already and got better. I can guarantee you this thing was circulating in the US well before March. 

So far there have been 5,000 deaths in the US. This is a country close to 350 million people if you’re including illegals. We can’t shut down the entire country and risk going into a depression over a disease that quiet honestly just isn’t that deadly. If it was a disease like Ebola that had a fatality rate of 60% or something insane like that- sure- shut the shit down. 

I think a lot of this hysteria is driven by the media and by people that want to take down Trump. This virus is terrible don’t get me wrong, any amount of people dying is just sad, but I honestly don’t believe it’s as bad as “they” say it is. Millions and millions of people aren’t going to die from this. And millions and millions wouldn’t have died even if they didn’t lock everything down.

China still needs to be dealt with over this however just purely based on the economic damage that this thing is doing and also because of the potential that something a lot worse could come out of those disgusting wildlife wet markets. I don’t get how the CCP didn’t permanently shut down the wet markets after the SARS outbreak in 2003-2004. The damn CCP let them open right back up. Freaking morons. 

what is the actual fatality rate? I believe they are saying it’s under 2% in the US.

But how many millions of people have been exposed to this thing and had little to no symptoms and never got tested. There was a study done by a European country I think it was Sweden or something that suggests that nearly 50% of the people who contract this virus don’t even get sick.

All I know is, I was sicker than a dog for almost two weeks in the middle of January. Never in my life got that sick from a regular flu. I think it’s possible that I may have already had this thing already and got better. I can guarantee you this thing was circulating in the US well before March.

So far there have been 5,000 deaths in the US. This is a country close to 350 million people if you’re including illegals. We can’t shut down the entire country and risk going into a depression over a disease that quiet honestly just isn’t that deadly. If it was a disease like Ebola that had a fatality rate of 60% or something insane like that- sure- shut the shit down.

I think a lot of this hysteria is driven by the media and by people that want to take down Trump. This virus is terrible don’t get me wrong, any amount of people dying is just sad, but I honestly don’t believe it’s as bad as “they” say it is. Millions and millions of people aren’t going to die from this. And millions and millions wouldn’t have died even if they didn’t lock everything down.

China still needs to be dealt with over this however just purely based on the economic damage that this thing is doing and also because of the potential that something a lot worse could come out of those disgusting wildlife wet markets. I don’t get how the CCP didn’t permanently shut down the wet markets after the SARS outbreak in 2003-2004. The damn CCP let them open right back up. Freaking morons.

They're already reopening in China at this very moment.

Actual fatality rate based on a model I've been running is around .6%.  When all is said and done I suspect it'll remain below 1%, but it's much more infectious than flu or SARS or any of the other things it's being compared to, so that still translates to a lot of deaths, depending on total population penetration%.

They're already reopening in China at this very moment.

Actual fatality rate based on a model I've been running is around .6%.  When all is said and done I suspect it'll remain below 1%, but it's much more infectious than flu or SARS or any of the other things it's being compared to, so that still translates to a lot of deaths, depending on total population penetration%.

Are you serious? That is reason enough for the world to declare war on China imo. CCP needs to permanently shut down the wildlife wet markets or the militaries of the world should invade and do it for them. Those wildlife wet markets are a ticking time bomb of bio WMDs.

I think your model is probably right. Under 1% is probably what this thing is actually at.