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Topic: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
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OrangeAfroMan · « **Reply #5726 on:** June 23, 2020, 01:01:35 PM »

The 2 things that bother me most about this are:
1 - the apathy some of you have with the elderly being eviscerated by this thing
and
2 - the fact that the average person (the masses) aren't smart and won't take 0.00001% more of a precaution than they're told to by their elected officials. And that's why we can blame mayors and governors (AZ & FL, especially) and presidents - they know the masses are stupid and don't overly protect them from themselves.

The U.S. is a giant preschool full of toddlers with guns and no one is taking the guns away, because they want to avoid the inevitable meltdown from the toddler. And we call it freedom.

FearlessF · « **Reply #5727 on:** June 23, 2020, 01:06:58 PM »

Quote from: bwarbiany on June 23, 2020, 12:47:57 PM

I think this keeps getting stated, but I'm not sure it's true at all.

Remember, the flu ALSO disproportionately kills the old and those with comorbid health factors. So if you want to figure out how this affects "a class of people" relative to the flu, you have to factor that in.

This is not the flu!

I agree with your entire post, but remember that we don't have a vaccine yet.
We do have a flu vaccine

CDC conducts studies each year to determine how well the influenza (flu) vaccine protects against flu illness. While vaccine effectiveness (VE) can vary, recent studies show that flu vaccination reduces the risk of flu illness by between 40% and 60% among the overall population during seasons when most circulating flu viruses are well-matched to the flu vaccine. In general, current flu vaccines tend to work better against influenza B and influenza A(H1N1) viruses and offer lower protection against influenza A(H3N2) viruses.

the numbers might be closer if we didn't have a flu vaccine.
That said, THIS IS NOT THE FLU

847badgerfan · « **Reply #5728 on:** June 23, 2020, 01:25:35 PM »

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on June 23, 2020, 01:01:35 PM

The 2 things that bother me most about this are:
1 - the apathy some of you have with the elderly being eviscerated by this thing
and
2 - the fact that the average person (the masses) aren't smart and won't take 0.00001% more of a precaution than they're told to by their elected officials. And that's why we can blame mayors and governors (AZ & FL, especially) and presidents - they know the masses are stupid and don't overly protect them from themselves.

The U.S. is a giant preschool full of toddlers with guns and no one is taking the guns away, because they want to avoid the inevitable meltdown from the toddler. And we call it freedom.

How do you feel about the governor of New York? He sentenced a lot of older people to death by returning them to their nursing homes. Of course, he's a superstar on TV every day (Is he still on every day??).

Why are AZ and FL different than anywhere else? They opened their economies, just as everyone else is doing. Some did it earlier than others, as they were showing good numbers. Some are doing very well, like Wisconsin, which hasn't spiked since the State's Supreme Court struck down the Governor's order on May 13. Maybe that should be more talked about - how they are doing it??

The economy HAS TO BE OPEN. Not all of us are on the government tit, and can stay at home forever without worry of being paid. I don't think you get this part - at all. The drug use, the drinking, the depression and the suicides have taken root with this thing. People need to get out and get to work, period. Just do it smart, is all I ask - like Wisconsin.

Will the Illinois governor be an asshole when (not if) the state spikes again? I see more and more people around here not wearing masks. Dining in, gyms, trails, etc. are all gonna open on Friday.

Honestbuckeye · « **Reply #5729 on:** June 23, 2020, 01:33:12 PM »

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on June 23, 2020, 01:01:35 PM

The 2 things that bother me most about this are:
1 - the apathy some of you have with the elderly being eviscerated by this thing
and
2 - the fact that the average person (the masses) aren't smart and won't take 0.00001% more of a precaution than they're told to by their elected officials. And that's why we can blame mayors and governors (AZ & FL, especially) and presidents - they know the masses are stupid and don't overly protect them from themselves.

The U.S. is a giant preschool full of toddlers with guns and no one is taking the guns away, because they want to avoid the inevitable meltdown from the toddler. And we call it freedom.

I don’t see it as apathy. I think everyone agrees- that sucks, especially when they think about people in their own lives like parents or neighbors. They just believe that it is substantially more damaging to the health, wellbeing of the majority to to shut down the world as opposed to try to manage this situation, accepting that you can’t eradicate it completely- as best we can.
as for the guns- sure, like everything else there are idiots who own them.
But there is a reason it is protected- and is in fact the second amendment.
So peace loving people, like me, can at least try to defend ourselves from the toddlers running around destroying property, causing chaos and anarchy, and chastising you or sometimes beating you if your exercise of the first amendment does not agree with theirs. That’s why sales of guns have skyrocketed/ people have TVs and can see for themselves what is happening.

Cincydawg · « **Reply #5730 on:** June 23, 2020, 01:39:59 PM »

It seems ironic to excoriate people for apathy for the elderly and then excoriate the masses.

betarhoalphadelta · « **Reply #5731 on:** June 23, 2020, 01:43:17 PM »

Just to clarify, let's make some comparisons with the flu...

The CDC estimates somewhere in the 25-35M symptomatic illnesses for the flu and 10-15M medical visits required for the flu annually. To date, COVID-19 only has 2.4M confirmed cases. Even if you assume that half of all people who were symptomatic were mild enough to never be tested, that only gets you to 5M symptomatic illnesses, 20% of the low estimate for the flu. If you make a much more wild assumption and that there was a 4x gap between symptomatic illnesses and confirmed cases, you're still only at 40% of the low end of the annual flu infections.
We don't have hard numbers, but it is widely believed that COVID-19 is more transmissible than the flu. General belief is that it's somewhere near 2x the R0 value
it's somewhere near 2x the R0 value.
As a species, we have no COVID-19 immunity. No vaccine, no natural immunity, and we're nowhere near herd immunity. The yearly flu has a significant amount of herd immunity built in each year due to people getting vaccinated, and there is research suggesting that past influenza exposure can confer some level of immunity to future strains.

So we have something that's more contagious than the flu, carries higher mortality than the flu, and a population that has NO defense against it.

In 3 months, it's infected 2.4M people (known) and killed twice as many as the worst flu season in the last decade, and at least 50% more than the worst flu season in the last decade in people under 65.

Even if you assume a 10x difference between confirmed cases and actual infection/antibody rate (likely much too high), that leaves over 300M people in this nation alone who are not immune, infected, or recovered. That's a green field for potential infection that absolutely doesn't exist with the flu.

So our response to this NATURALLY should be completely different than to the flu.

Cincydawg · « **Reply #5732 on:** June 23, 2020, 01:46:23 PM »

I don't agree either with saying "this is just a bad flu season".

Now, how best to reduce area under the curve? The early fear was hospitals would be inundated. We seem to be past that (if we don't catch it now).

Cincydawg · « **Reply #5733 on:** June 23, 2020, 01:50:22 PM »

Some early fears back in March:

1. Mortality rate is 3.4%. It is probably nearer 1%.
2. Not enough testing. It's far from clear that more testing earlier would have helped.
3. Not enough hospital beds.
4. Not enough intubators.
5. Not enough medications to allow intubations.
6. Medical providers would contract this in droves and go down.

"We" have passed those fears, for now anyway, none of them materialized except testing was delayed by a CDC mishap.

Now folks think governors should reshut their economies? Really? I don't. I think that criticism is largely political and ignores what has happened with governors of the other party and their states.

betarhoalphadelta · « **Reply #5734 on:** June 23, 2020, 01:52:55 PM »

Quote from: Cincydawg on June 23, 2020, 01:50:22 PM

1. Mortality rate is 3.4%. It is probably nearer 1%.

That was always taken out of context.

In an apples to apples comparison to THAT number, the reality is worse--CFR in the US is over 5%.

IFR is probably somewhere in the realm of 0.5-1%. But that's not the rate the WHO director was quoting, and everyone knows [or should know] it.

Cincydawg · « **Reply #5735 on:** June 23, 2020, 02:03:21 PM »

It was an early fear. It got my attention at least, even if I wasn't sure it was right. Even 2% would lead to some horrific figures.

My point is those early fears have been navigated. Let's not bring them back unless this thing takes off like crazy.

We know more now, we still don't know enough IMHO.

FearlessF · « **Reply #5736 on:** June 23, 2020, 02:37:48 PM »

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on June 23, 2020, 01:01:35 PM

The 2 things that bother me most about this are:
1 - the apathy some of you have with the elderly being eviscerated by this thing
and
2 - the fact that the average person (the masses) aren't smart and won't take 0.00001% more of a precaution than they're told to by their elected officials.

are the elderly being "eviscerated"

we know a very high percentage of deaths are elderly, but what percent of folks over the age of 70 have died? 10%, 20%, 5%??? I don't know.. just asking

elderly housing / retirement and nursing homes that were infected were eviscerated. This I can agree with.

as has been encouraged by almost everyone on this thread, the elderly need to been very careful and take all precautions. This is not apathy.

Cincydawg · « **Reply #5737 on:** June 23, 2020, 02:46:25 PM »

n the United States, the population age 65 and over numbered 49.2 million in 2016 (the most recent year for which data are available). They represented 15.2% of the population, about one in every seven Americans.

If we use round numbers, 100,000 deaths perhaps out of almost 50 million people over 65. Percentagewise ....

FearlessF · « **Reply #5738 on:** June 23, 2020, 02:58:58 PM »

less than a half of a percent?

so, if you're not living in a care facility. Chances are, you're pretty safe

MrNubbz · « **Reply #5739 on:** June 23, 2020, 03:12:51 PM »

Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 23, 2020, 01:25:35 PM

The economy HAS TO BE OPEN. Not all of us are on the government tit, and can stay at home forever without worry of being paid. I don't think you get this part - at all. The drug use, the drinking, the depression and the suicides have taken root with this thing. People need to get out and get to work, period. Just do it smart, is all I ask - like Wisconsin.

AMEN - In another year or two things could degenerate into the wild west.With Amazon/UPS Delivery Vans being the new stage coaches,people are hurting and what is coming will cause alot more Death/Destruction than we've yet seen - I hope it doesn't go there.But your right there are too many pigs for the tits

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Topic: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas

OrangeAfroMan

Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas

FearlessF

Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas

847badgerfan

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Honestbuckeye

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Cincydawg

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betarhoalphadelta

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Cincydawg

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Cincydawg

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betarhoalphadelta

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Cincydawg

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FearlessF

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Cincydawg

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FearlessF

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MrNubbz

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