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Topic: Playoff Picture heading into Week 8 - Does M control their own destiny?

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Cincydawg

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Re: Playoff Picture heading into Week 8 - Does M control their own destiny?
« Reply #84 on: October 18, 2018, 08:06:17 AM »
I think often a ranking based on who would beat who (a power poll) is different from an AP kind of a poll.

In the AP, we almost never see an 8-3 team ranked ahead of a 10-1 team (both P5s).  They basically ranked teams on record, with some minor adjustments.  That 8-3 team could well have played a very tough schedule and looked good even in losing while the 10-1 team played almost nobody and edged a lot of weak teams.

Maybe the best "poll" is based on Vegas theoretical odds.

MrNubbz

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Re: Playoff Picture heading into Week 8 - Does M control their own destiny?
« Reply #85 on: October 18, 2018, 09:22:30 AM »
I've always kind of agreed that head to head is over valued.  It's a good metric, but is too much the end all be all.  

Example:  Two teams are fighting for a division.  Team A blows away everyone else but loses a close one on the road to Team B.  Team B has several close games and drops one of them to a so-so team.  They both finish with 1 conference loss.  Which is better?

In that situation team B gets the tie-breaker and I am not saying I disagree with that per-se, but Team A's resume overall is clearly better to me too.  That's why I never had a problem with co-champs.  If you can't finish with a better record, don't complain about having to share just because you got the head to head.
That's a good scenario,there are coaches that will RUTS.Then there are still a dwindling few that will run out the clock or sit on the ball while substituting /rotating back-ups in.Ya know old school sportsman ship.That would be another wrench in the gears if in your scenario Coach A was the 1st and coach B was the 2nd.Then H2H would be the gauge,plenty of iffy/weird scenarios
« Last Edit: October 18, 2018, 09:24:20 AM by MrNubbz »
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Brutus Buckeye

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Re: Playoff Picture heading into Week 8 - Does M control their own destiny?
« Reply #86 on: October 18, 2018, 10:28:15 AM »
If the on-field results take a back seat to the beauty contest, then you'd be foolish not to run up the score. 

ELA

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Re: Playoff Picture heading into Week 8 - Does M control their own destiny?
« Reply #87 on: October 18, 2018, 01:23:19 PM »
My issue is if we determine a playoff field, by who we *think* is best, why stop there and even have a playoff?

It's like we want a beauty contest, until we don't.

If that's the case, cancel the CFP, and award Alabama the national title now.  They may not win it, but they are certainly the best team, no matter what happens from here out.

medinabuckeye1

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Re: Playoff Picture heading into Week 8 - Does M control their own destiny?
« Reply #88 on: October 18, 2018, 05:29:24 PM »
Except when Baylor beat TCU head to head, and finished with the same record, TCU was still higher based on the eyeball test, or maybe the "better loss" test since their loss was to Baylor, and Baylor's loss was to WVU.

Same would apply to 2015 MSU-OSU.  Each had 1 loss, OSU passed the eyeball test over MSU (even the most homer MSU fan can admit that), and OSU's one loss to MSU was certainly better than MSU's 1 loss to Nebraska.  And OSU had helmet factor.  But MSU was still ranked higher, because they were the conference champ, and OSU wasn't.

That's why I continue to believe helmet is not a factor, and yes a 1 loss Big Ten champ Indiana I believe would get in over a 1 loss non champ Alabama.
On the Baylor/TCU debate:  I agree and just want to point out that not only was TCU's loss to a better team (Baylor) but it was also only by a FG whereas Baylor's loss to WVU was by two TD's.  
On the second part, I have been having this debate with @utee94 for ages now and I never thought of that example, thank you.  MSU/tOSU 2015 is strong evidence that the committee is NOT biased in favor of helmet teams for all of the reasons you laid out.  

medinabuckeye1

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Re: Playoff Picture heading into Week 8 - Does M control their own destiny?
« Reply #89 on: October 18, 2018, 05:29:55 PM »
Medina, you should've been an appellate lawyer.  You have a way with commanding old facts and relitigating .
LoL, thanks!  I almost finished law school.  

medinabuckeye1

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Re: Playoff Picture heading into Week 8 - Does M control their own destiny?
« Reply #90 on: October 18, 2018, 05:34:42 PM »
I strongly agree with @OrangeAfroMan on this issue.  I have always thought that the oddity of using H2H as a tiebreaker is that in most cases it rewards a team with a worse loss.  Ie, if Michigan loses to Rutgers but beats Ohio State such that both finish 8-1 it is odd to reward the team that lost to a horrible Rutgers team with a Championship.  I understand why we use it but I see no reason why the committee should be forced to use it.  

Another example:
If Notre Dame loses a game and finishes 11-1 while Michigan wins out to finish 12-1 I would absolutely put Michigan in the CFP over Notre Dame despite the H2H result.  Michigan would have a much better loss AND a much better collection of wins.  

medinabuckeye1

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Re: Playoff Picture heading into Week 8 - Does M control their own destiny?
« Reply #91 on: October 18, 2018, 05:37:28 PM »
H2H may not be the end all, be all but you better have a pretty compelling case to overcome it and I don’t think TCU’s case was strong enough it.  I don’t think “better loss” is enough or a win over Minnesota as compared to Buffalo is either.
I agree that you need a pretty compelling case to overcome H2H but I have a sliding scale as to how compelling that case needs to be.  In the TCU/Baylor case I didn't feel that TCU hit that bar in part because Baylor's H2H win was so close and at home.  I would look at it very differently if Baylor had defeated TCU in Fort Worth by two scores.  What I am saying is that, to me anyway, the relative strength of the H2H win is relevant to determining how much is needed to overcome it.  

ELA

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Re: Playoff Picture heading into Week 8 - Does M control their own destiny?
« Reply #92 on: October 18, 2018, 05:44:16 PM »
I strongly agree with @OrangeAfroMan on this issue.  I have always thought that the oddity of using H2H as a tiebreaker is that in most cases it rewards a team with a worse loss.  Ie, if Michigan loses to Rutgers but beats Ohio State such that both finish 8-1 it is odd to reward the team that lost to a horrible Rutgers team with a Championship.  I understand why we use it but I see no reason why the committee should be forced to use it.  

Another example:
If Notre Dame loses a game and finishes 11-1 while Michigan wins out to finish 12-1 I would absolutely put Michigan in the CFP over Notre Dame despite the H2H result.  Michigan would have a much better loss AND a much better collection of wins.  
It also means Michigan has a win over OSU, while OSU has a win over Rutgers.
So the gap between the quality of the different win matches the gap in quality of loss.

medinabuckeye1

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Re: Playoff Picture heading into Week 8 - Does M control their own destiny?
« Reply #93 on: October 18, 2018, 06:56:07 PM »
It also means Michigan has a win over OSU, while OSU has a win over Rutgers.
So the gap between the quality of the different win matches the gap in quality of loss.
That is true but note your wording, "the quality of the different win matches the gap in quality of loss" (emphasis added).  
That is my whole point.  They match.  One team has a better win and a worse loss while the other has a better loss and a worse win.  They match, so why do we routinely assume that the team with the better win and worse loss is obviously the better team?  

Kris60

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Re: Playoff Picture heading into Week 8 - Does M control their own destiny?
« Reply #94 on: October 18, 2018, 07:07:41 PM »
One of the issues when trying to decide between these teams are so few of them play each other.  So if I get a result between two teams it means something to me.

I find it odd that other games mean more to you than a game between two teams you are comparing.

Lastly, I’m probably more interested in a team’s ceiling than their basement. Best win probably means a little more to me than worst loss. I know anyone is capable of getting crushed by Bama. I want the precious few capable of beating them.

ELA

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Re: Playoff Picture heading into Week 8 - Does M control their own destiny?
« Reply #95 on: October 18, 2018, 07:42:38 PM »
That is true but note your wording, "the quality of the different win matches the gap in quality of loss" (emphasis added).  
That is my whole point.  They match.  One team has a better win and a worse loss while the other has a better loss and a worse win.  They match, so why do we routinely assume that the team with the better win and worse loss is obviously the better team?  
Nobody is, I'm talking about the more deserving team.  I don't care who the best team is.  BTW, it's Alabama.  If what you care about is who is the best team, then stop the season now, it's Alabama.  If Alabama loses in the semifinals, they should still play in the national title game if what you want is the best team.

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Playoff Picture heading into Week 8 - Does M control their own destiny?
« Reply #96 on: October 18, 2018, 09:39:37 PM »
One of the issues when trying to decide between these teams are so few of them play each other.  So if I get a result between two teams it means something to me.

I find it odd that other games mean more to you than a game between two teams you are comparing.


A sample size of 11 > a sample size of one (h2h)
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Kris60

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Re: Playoff Picture heading into Week 8 - Does M control their own destiny?
« Reply #97 on: October 19, 2018, 08:51:09 AM »
A sample size of 11 > a sample size of one (h2h)

If that sample size of 11 is definitively in the corner of the team that lost I’m happy to consider that.

 

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