| The drubbing in Ann Arbor sort of confirmed what we had thought, but couldn't really say, due to them pulling out the big road win in Kinnick, that something is just off about this Wisconsin team. They can still run the ball, but for a third year starter Alex Hornibrook has not really improved as a passer. He makes better and better decisions, but that arm is simply not what you want under center for a Big Ten title contender. More concerning is that the defense doesn't even begin to resemble what they had a year ago. Michigan ran all over them for 320 yards on 6.7 ypc, and did it without really threatening to stretch the field vertically. Their only completed pass of longer than 17 yards was to a tight end. So Michigan fought Wisconsin in a phone booth, and won. Those are the fights Bucky never loses. Nothing gets you right faster than the Illini rolling into town though. Last week I discussed that as bad as Rutgers is, Illinois not only beat them, but beat them soundly, and a path to a bowl still remained. I did also caution that aside from the turnover battle, the numbers in that Illinois-Rutgers game were disconcertingly equal. Well, those fears were realized last week, when Purdue closed the book once and for all on whether this Illinois team was decent enough to threaten for a bowl. After forcing Purdue to punt after picking up only 9 yards, the Illini breezed down the field, 77 yards in only 6 plays, gaining 5+ yards on each of those plays, save an incompletion. Illinois managed 83 yards and no points over the remainder of the afternoon, and got run out, 46-7. Their running game, which had carried the load in Big Ten play, was completely shut down by a Purdue defense that Nebraska ran for 6.6 ypc against the week prior. Illinois' leading rusher was quarterback A.J. Bush Jr., who tallied 24 yards on a whopping 2.2 ypc. If anything can help a Wisconsin defense which now ranks 11th in the Big Ten in rush defense both per game and per carry, it might be this. Of course getting healthy would help too. Isaiah Loudermilk is certainly still out, if D'Cota Dixon was as close to returning against Michigan as it seemed he was, then you would think he would be back. Although Scott Nelson, on that back line with him is out either way with a targeting suspension. The gap between Illinois and Rutgers is large, but so is the gap between Illinois and whoever is #12. For whatever issues Wisconsin has defensively, Illinois' are worse, although these are the two worst teams in conference play in terms of ypp allowed. S&P+ suggests Wisconsin's numbers (#63 in defense) are much more misleading than Illinois' (#111), and in spite of the dreadful performance we saw out of Hornibrook on Saturday night, Connelly still has the Badgers' offense ranked #5 nationally. Since 2009, Wisconsin has only lost once to a conference opponent that finished with a losing record, and very rarely were they even challenged. The one consistent with the program has been the ability to put the boot down on inferior competition. |
