Teams with 1st Loss Week 7:
Ohio State
Teams with 2nd Loss Week 7:
Coastal Carolina
Utah
Oklahoma
Mississippi
Colorado
Rutgers
Toledo
Eastern Michigan
Virginia
San Jose State
Oregon State
Teams with 1st Win Week 7:
none
Percent of Teams with 1st Loss:
Week 1: 28.4% (38 of 134)
Week 2: 37.5% (36 of 96)
Week 3: 28.3% (17 of 60)
Week 4: 39.5% (17 of 43)
Week 5: 26.9% (7 of 26)
Week 6: 36.8% (7 of 19)
Week 7: 8.33% (1 of 12)
Maximum number of Undefeated Teams at the End of the Regular Season: 7
-We are down one as undefeateds BYU and Iowa State would now have to play in the Big 12 Championship game. We could theoretically have 3 undefeated teams in the Big Ten (Oregon, Indiana, and Penn State). That leaves our remaining possibilities as 2 of Indiana/Oregon/Penn State, plus Texas, Pitt/Miami (FL), BYU/Iowa State, Army/Navy, and Liberty.
Maximum Number of Games between Undefeated Teams in the Regular Season: 4
-We dropped two this week because of action in the Big Ten. We played one of them (Ohio State/Oregon) and since Oregon won, the only remaining games between undefeated teams the rest of the year will be in the conference championship games in the Big Ten, ACC, American, and Big 12.
Week 7 Thoughts:
-Kent State came close to its first victory, but fell a little short. They have yet to lead this year.
-Welcome to the Big Ten Oregon. Generally speaking, Midwest/east coast teams did better going to the west coast this week in the Big Ten as Penn State had a comeback win at USC and Minnesota won at UCLA, but, in the biggest game, Oregon beat Ohio State. Oregon can likely afford a loss at this point and still make the Big Ten Championship (something I could still see happening as they go to Michigan and Wisconsin in November). Ohio State still controls their destiny fully in the new playoff set-up and mostly in the Big Ten given schedule (still play at Penn State, vs. Indiana, and vs. Michigan). That said, the Buckeyes might not have anymore margin for error. If they lose at Penn State, they are likely out of the Big Ten race and it is at least questionable for the playoff (still far more likely than not in my view, but not a foregone conclusion).
-After disappointing losses the week before, Tennessee and Alabama won close games this week. That keeps everything in front of them still, but leaves fans much more on edge as they play each other this week. Ole Miss fell to LSU and likely has to win out now for the playoff. Texas won the Red River Shootout in a game that I miss the Big 12 implications in.
-Pitt won a close one vs. Cal to stay unbeaten and continues to slowly move up the ranks. SMU and Miami were off, while Clemson continues to look impressive. Those are probably the 4 main playoff contenders in the ACC at this point.
-Kansas State beat Colorado to remain with one loss and fully in the playoff (and Big 12) race. Colorado could still recover in the Big 12 race, but probably not for an at large spot. Utah after starting favorite to win the conference now has two conference (to both Arizona schools) losses and is likely out of everything. BYU and Iowa State continue to lead the conference with wins against Arizona and West Virginia. Those two keep winning is the best for the conference.
-Group of 5 Race: After this weekend, we have 3 undefeated teams in Group of 5 conferences and 8 one-loss teams. The American has 2 undefeated and 2 one-loss teams which probably gives it the most possibilities. Army and Navy will be a serious threat for the spot with either zero or 1-loss. That said, 2-loss Tulane is the favorite to win the conference (losses to Kansas State and Oklahoma), but would need some help.
The Mountain West now officially has only two big contenders in UNLV and Boise State, but they are quite strong. I think a 2nd loss for either might be killer for them, but Boise State is currently the highest rated Group of 5 conference team and I think can only likely be passed by an undefeated Army/Navy,
Undefeated Liberty won in overtime last Tuesday. They really need some upsets in the American and Mountain West over the rest of the season and might also need to start winning a bit more convincingly.
In the Sun Belt, the two best possibilities are James Madison who beat North Carolina convincingly, but lost to Louisiana-Monroe and Louisiana-Monroe itself. Louisiana-Monroe has one loss to Texas and still plays Auburn late the year. Win out and they would have a very compelling case.
All MAC teams have at least two losses and will need a lot of upsets to put them back in.
Week 8 Thoughts:
-We have 4 games between some combination of undefeated and 1-loss teams.
1-loss Georgia at undefeated Texas: If not for the Alabama upset, this would be a 1 vs. 2 game. Now though we get old SEC vs. new SEC. Georgia can probably afford a loss for playoff purposes, but would need a decent bit of help for SEC Championship purposes (although everyone but Texas having 2 losses or more is definitely possible if they lose here). If Texas losses, it put a jumbled mess atop the SEC standings with only possibly Texas A&M and LSU undefeated in conference.
1-loss Alabama at 1-loss Tennessee: This game is a tad smaller than it looked like would be 2 weeks ago. That said, it is very much a top ten match-up and the stakes might actually be higher than they would have been if both were undefeated. The loser will have 2 conference losses which likely won't be recoverable from for the SEC race and maybe not for the playoff race.
1-loss Nebraska at undefeated Indiana: Indiana is already bowl eligible. Nebraska's only loss was a Friday night loss to Illinois. The Big Ten would love for Indiana to keep winning and moving up the ranking. On the flip side, a Nebraska win might get them ranked or close to ranked.
1-loss North Texas at 1-loss Memphis: Winner of this game will be the only team besides Army and Navy with fewer than 2-loss in the American. Memphis will have two conference losses with a loss and close to out of the conference race.
Winless Kennesaw State at Middle Tennessee (Tuesday): Middle Tennessee only has 1 win so this might be a recipe for FBS transitioning Kennesaw State to get their first win, but they are almost 10 point underdogs.
Western Kentucky at 1-loss Sam Houston (Wednesday): Who is going to be Liberty's big contender for the Conference USA title? Both these teams are undefeated in conference and the line is close.
Florida International at winless UTEP (Wednesday): UTEP is about a touchdown underdog here to get their first win.
Oklahoma State at undefeated BYU (Friday): Opposite spots for these teams to be in based on preseason expectations. Oklahoma State trying to salvage the season, while BYU looking like a serious conference contender.
Florida State at 1-loss Duke (Friday): Duke still only has one loss, while Florida State is trying to salvage something this season. Duke is only a 3 point favorite. The conference would probably like Duke to keep winning for now.
Undefeated Miami (FL) at Louisville: Miami has had a lot of close games, but keeps winning. Louisville dropped a couple of close ones the other way. Miami is a 4 point favorite here. The ACC definitely wants them to keep winning for a chance at 2 in.
Auburn at 1-loss Missouri: Mizzou still only has a loss and everything in front of them, but are teetering a bit. They are only 4.5 point favorites here.
1-loss Arizona State at Cincinnati: Arizona State beat Utah last week to stay at 1-loss. Cincinnati had late game losses to undefeated Pitt and Texas Tech. Arizona State would have the easier time getting ranked and be better for the Big 12, but Cincinnati is a 2.5 point favorite.
1-loss Louisiana-Lafayette at Coastal Carolina: The Ragin' Cajuns are a 1-loss Sun Belt team in the running for the playoff. Coastal Carolina has one conference loss and would like to stay in the conference race. Louisiana is a 3.5 point favorite.
Michigan at 1-loss Illinois: A ranked Big Ten game with a lot of implications. A win for Michigan keeps them with 1 conference loss and in the race for the conference still. A win for Illinois gets them a lot more attention. The loser is probably out of the rankings.
Baylor at 1-loss Texas Tech: The Red Raiders one loss was to Washington State. Win the next two weeks and the game vs. Iowa State looks much bigger for the Big 12.
1-loss James Madison at Georgia Southern: James Madison remains a playoff contender, but lose this (a 2nd conference loss) and they might not even be a Sun Belt contender. Georgia Southern is undefeated in conference and a 9.5 point underdog.
1-loss LSU at Arkansas: Used to be a season ending game. LSU has made it into the top 10, while Arkansas is coming off a win vs. Tennessee before the bye. LSU is a 2.5 point favorite.
1-loss Kansas State at West Virginia: Kansas State is moving up the rankings, but it only a 3 point favorite here. The Big 12 is better off for two if Kansas State keeps winning.
1-loss UNLV at Oregon State: Best for the Mountain West for UNLV to win this for a lot of reasons. UNLV winning keeps them very much in the playoff race, which helps directly and indirectly (makes a potential match-up with Boise State bigger regardless of who wins it). Beyond this year considerations, the conference would probably love the team they got to stay to beat one of the current PAC teams.
Remaining Undefeated Teams: ACC: 2, American: 2, Big 12: 2, Big Ten: 3, Conference USA: 1, SEC: 1, total: 11
Miami (FL)
Iowa State
Texas
Pittsburgh
Indiana
Penn State
Brigham Young
Oregon
Army
Navy
Liberty
1-Loss Teams: ACC: 4, American: 2, Big 12: 3, Big Ten: 3, Conference USA: 1, MAC: 0, Mountain West: 2, PAC-12: 1, SEC: 6, Sun Belt: 3, independents: 1, total 24
Clemson
Southern Methodist
Syracuse
North Texas
Memphis
Texas Tech
Kansas State
Arizona State
Illinois
Nebraska
Sam Houston
Boise State
Washington State
Texas A&M
Louisiana State
Georgia
Louisiana-Monroe
Louisiana-Lafayette
Notre Dame
UNLV
Alabama
Tennessee
James Madison
Duke
Ohio State
Remaining Winless Teams: Conference USA: 2, MAC: 1, total: 3
UTEP
(Kennesaw State)
Kent State
