| Chalk this one up as a big "who knows?" Nebraska is clearly a far, far better team than the one we saw in September. But all that said, their best actual win is a home win over 5-5 Minnesota. They do have a pair of close losses to Northwestern and Ohio State in their last five though, and could have been playing for a bowl down the stretch if one of those breaks their way. For the second week in a row, we have to determine if Michigan State's defense is more elite than an elite offense. They did all they could do against Ohio State, forcing the Buckeyes off the field time and again, only to have their offense put them back in a terrible situation. So Michigan State's defense doesn't just have to overcome Nebraska's potent offense, averaging a conference best 6.8 ypp, they have to overcome their own offense, averaging only 4.7 ypp, third worst in the conference. The Spartans have simply been unable to extend drives, converting third downs at a horrific 22.9% clip, nearly 9% worse than anyone else, including Rutgers. So they aren't just giving opposing offenses the ball in good field position, they aren't even giving their defense a break, averaging only 19.1 first downs per game, third worst. Granted they are also only allowing 16.6 first downs per game, second best in the conference. To flip that, Nebraska is second best, averaging 24.3 first downs per game, but giving up 25, second worst. So the Spartans have gotten used to playing games with a lot of possessions, a lot of special teams play, while the Cornhuskers are accustomed to long, extending drives, on both sides of the ball. What makes this game hard to predict is Michigan State's quarterback situation. Brian Lewerke is clearly hurt, and has been for some time. But it seems to be getting worse. This much seems clear to even Lewerke himself at this point, but not to Mark Dantonio. Rocky Lombardi looked plenty capable in the win over Purdue, after getting first team reps all week, and a gameplan built to his strengths. Coming in cold off the bench against Maryland and Ohio State he looked like a different guy. Dantonio has spoken of using him like a reliever, but it doesn't seem like he's capable of that at all. If Michigan State rolls with Lewerke again, then flips to Lombardi when that inevitably doesn't work, Nebraska will win this game. If the staff handles Lombardi like they did against Purdue, they still, even with all of the running back and receiver injuries (sounds like now only Cody White may play among the WR group, in addition to L.J. Scott officially being shut down for the year), Michigan State still has enough offensive talent against what is a lousy defense. But Nebraska is not even asking their defense to just do enough, they've won 2 of their last 3 Big Ten games while surrendering 33 ppg. While Nebraska's offense is good, I don't think it's as good as Ohio State's, and the Buckeyes managed only 250 total yards, on just 4.2 ypp and 7 points until the defense finally said no mas after MSU's 6 offensive drive of three plays or less, out of 7 drives to start the second half. The problem is Ohio State won the field position battle all game long. If Nebraska is working short fields, it means their defense played over their heads, or Michigan State played the wrong quarterback, or both. If either happens again, Nebraska wins. But every time this year, I've been ready to write the season off, Michigan State pulls one out. Nebraska has been Dantonio's fly in the ointment since joining the league, only looking good against them once, 2013. But if Nebraska holds Michigan State to "only" 33 points, it would mark Nebraska's second best defensive effort in Big Ten play, and Michigan State hasn't allowed more than 31 points all season. It'll take some big turnovers for Nebraska to get there. |
