Michigan 2017 Season Thread

[MaximumSam]

It should be an interesting 15 game stretch for Michigan.  They have three more games this year against good teams, and no Michigan fan should be ashamed of a 11-2 or even 10-3 type of season.  9-4 or 8-5 may be a little tougher.  But next year is really the kicker - their defense really can't be much better than it has been the past couple years.  A Michigan team that plays great defense and can run the ball is a heck of a team.  But if they look bad offensively the next two weeks and don't improve much next year, then that' probably as good as it's going to get under Harbaugh.  

[ELA]

It should be an interesting 15 game stretch for Michigan.  They have three more games this year against good teams, and no Michigan fan should be ashamed of a 11-2 or even 10-3 type of season.  9-4 or 8-5 may be a little tougher.  But next year is really the kicker - their defense really can't be much better than it has been the past couple years.  A Michigan team that plays great defense and can run the ball is a heck of a team.  But if they look bad offensively the next two weeks and don't improve much next year, then that' probably as good as it's going to get under Harbaugh.  

Next year is their make or break year.  OSU and PSU lose a ton.  They get Wisconsin at home as their toughest crossover.  It's year 4, it's Harbaugh's team.  If they don't at least make it to Indy next year, I think you'll start hearing from a more discontent portion of the fan base.

9-3 was always "fine" this year, maybe a bit of a bummer because it simply meant beating a bunch of mediocre teams, and losing to all the good ones.  But then the MSU loss became the fly in the ointment.  8-4 isn't bad, but they have to win one of the last two to call this season anything other than somewhat of a disappointment.

[Mdot21]

It should be an interesting 15 game stretch for Michigan.  They have three more games this year against good teams, and no Michigan fan should be ashamed of a 11-2 or even 10-3 type of season. 9-4 or 8-5 may be a little tougher. But next year is really the kicker - their defense really can't be much better than it has been the past couple years. A Michigan team that plays great defense and can run the ball is a heck of a team.  But if they look bad offensively the next two weeks and don't improve much next year, then that' probably as good as it's going to get under Harbaugh.  

I'd take 9-4 all day and be happy with it. They just lost 11 guys to the NFL draft AND a few others who were starters that signed UFA/mini-camp deals like Kalis, Dymonte Thomas, Erik Magunson, and Ben Braden- that's 4 starters right there that weren't even drafted to go along with the 11 that were.

There are 105 players on a roster, 85 of them are scholarship- but 105 total. Michigan lost 43 seniors from that roster. Not all of them were starters/scholarship players- but all of them play a role on the TEAM. That's 41% of the roster. Gone. And A LOT of starters gone- seeing as how 11 of them alone were drafted by the NFL.

Expectations went up a little bit for the season after the opener when they man-handled Florida. Really if not for two Speight pick 6's that game would've probably been 33-3 or even worse for Florida. Turns out Florida just wasn't that good. Expectations reset a little bit when Michigan lost it's starting QB for the year a few weeks later against Purdue. Funny how no one ever mentions that. FSU seems to be getting a pass for losing it's starting QB and falling to like 2-5 or 3-6 or whatever they are- but Michigan catches all this shit because they aren't undefeated right now. They went through musical chairs trying out 3 different RT's before Juwann Bushell Beatty settled in that job. Michigan has been a banged up team all year. Lost their starting QB early on. Their starting LT Newsome won't be back until next year. Their best WR was Tarik Black and he's missed most of the year. Their starting RG Mike Onwenu has missed the last 3 games and a true freshman Cesar Ruiz has been filling in for him.

If Peters can finish this season out strong and carry that momentum into bowl practices, spring practices, summer workouts, and then fall camp- 2018 could be a special year. They return basically everybody on offense next year. I think they only lose Mason Cole who is playing LT, but they should get Grant Newsome back. And that defense returns everybody in the two deep except DT Maurice Hurst and LB Mike McCray. Literally everybody else returns. I don't think McCray is that good to be blunt with you, and losing Hurst is going to be a bitch- it's hard to replace a guy that fricken good- even BAMA would struggle with that- truth is those kind of interior havoc wreckers don't grow on trees. But everyone else comes back. And you're just starting to see true froshies DT Aubrey Solomon, CB Ambry Thomas, and Safety Jaylen Kelly-Powell get actual playing time these last couple games. I'm a big fan of LaVert Hill and David Long. Both of those young CB's have started coming into their own in their second seasons with the team. I think I'm an even bigger fan of Ambry Thomas. Really think that secondary has the potential to be really special next year. Wouldn't be surprised if Jaylen Kelly-Powell steals playing time from one of the safeties. Don Brown loves man coverage, his starting safeties struggle in man coverage. Jaylen Kelly-Powell recruiting profile was noted for his man to man cover abilities- kid played a lot of CB in high school and went to all of those Nike/Opening non-sense things and play a lot of corner there and stood out doing so.

[Mdot21]

Next year is their make or break year.  OSU and PSU lose a ton.  They get Wisconsin at home as their toughest crossover.  It's year 4, it's Harbaugh's team.  If they don't at least make it to Indy next year, I think you'll start hearing from a more discontent portion of the fan base.

9-3 was always "fine" this year, maybe a bit of a bummer because it simply meant beating a bunch of mediocre teams, and losing to all the good ones.  But then the MSU loss became the fly in the ointment.  8-4 isn't bad, but they have to win one of the last two to call this season anything other than somewhat of a disappointment.

2018 sets up pretty nicely. Defense returns everybody in the two deep except Hurst and McCray. Defense should continue to be really good. If Ambry Thomas makes the same sort of jump Long and Hill did in Year 2 that secondary will be featuring 3 future NFL CB's.

On offense a real-life QB will have to emerge between Peters and Speight. I really hope it's Peters. Not a believer in Speight, never have been. They've got to get LT Grant Newsome back healthy though because they lose Mason Cole, and they need to continue to develop their young offensive linemen. I really like what I've been seeing out of Mike Onwenu and Cesar Ruiz as run blockers. Both have some work to do in pass protection, but that's what interior offensive linemen should look like at the point of attack. Ruiz goes 6'4, 316 and Onwenu 6'3, 350 PLUS, and they straight up maul people into the dirt on run block plays. Year two is usually when you see WR's come into their own. Hard position for rooks to come in and play at a high level. I know Braylon, Terrell, Desmond, Manningham- all of them really broke out as a true sophomores. Hoping DPJ and a healthy Black do the same.

[Honestbuckeye]

Like I said in the other thread, Michigan looks like they are rounding into form. I would not even be a little surprised if they won their last two.

A stifling defense, paired with a team that can run the ball, and a QB that doesn't lose the game. Is a hard formula to beat,  

If Michigan can be that against quality opponents, there will be a nice surprise for those who count them out.   That is the " if" that will get answered soon.  

[Mdot21]

Like I said in the other thread, Michigan looks like they are rounding into form. I would not even be a little surprised if they won their last two.

A stifling defense, paired with a team that can run the ball, and a QB that doesn't lose the game. Is a hard formula to beat,  

If Michigan can be that against quality opponents, there will be a nice surprise for those who count them out.   That is the " if" that will get answered soon.  

I'd be surprised as hell if they won their last two. 1 of the two? There's a remote shot at that. Both? I think that's downright impossible.

Peters is the real key to the last two games and really to 2018. So far he's really just taken care of the football, played smart and hasn't been asked to do a whole lot. Not saying he's remotely close to Andrew Luck, but that's basically what Luck did his RS Frosh year at Stanford. Luck wasn't the focal piece of that offense his frosh year, he was basically asked just not to F it up and they leaned on Toby Gearhart and that running game in '09.

Andrew Luck's RS Frosh season at Stanford he only threw 13 TD's- against 4 INT's- which is a great stat-line showing he was taking care of the ball and being smart with the football and not turning it over- but he only completed 56% of his passes and he averaged 21 pass attempts per start. He was more game manager than superstar QB. It was that quantum leap he made in the 2nd year as a RS Soph that really catapulted him to super stardom and really that entire Stanford program.

He went from 56% completion to 70.7%, touchdown passes went from 13 to 32, and his pass yards went from 2,500 to 3,400. That kind of production from the QB position is a complete program changer. Peters makes anywhere near that sort of quantum leap from year 1 to year 2- Michigan is going to be a problem in 2018. He doesn't- I don't see them being much better than they are this year.

[CatsbyAZ]

I'd be surprised as hell if they won their last two. 1 of the two? There's a remote shot at that. Both? I think that's downright impossible.

I can't tell if you're cautiously intending to oversell a "2017 is a rebuilding year" mindset, but I find it inexcusable to hire the one and only Jim Harbaugh and pay him $7 Mil/Yr only to have a remote shot at winning one of two vs Wisconsin/OSU down the homestretch of Year 3.


Either way I'm not as patient as you.

[Mdot21]

I can't tell if you're cautiously intending to oversell a "2017 is a rebuilding year" mindset, but I find it inexcusable to hire the one and only Jim Harbaugh and pay him $7 Mil/Yr only to have a remote shot at winning one of two vs Wisconsin/OSU down the homestretch of Year 3.


Either way I'm not as patient as you.

you can't win every game every year. They lost 41% of their roster from the previous year. 11 guys drafted by the NFL. Like 4-5 more starting plays signed UDFA contracts. 43 seniors.

The only gripe I have with him is how unprepared they were to take on Penn State at night on the road. They got wiped off the field. That is not acceptable. Ever. It's one of only two games he's coached where his team wasn't competitive for 60 minutes and just got obliterated off the field. The other was his first game vs. Ohio State in 2015 where they just got crushed.

The team is young. Most of it's starters are all freshman, RS frosh, or sophomores. Starting line-up last week:

DE- Rashan Gary, true Soph.
DT- Aubrey Solomon, true frosh.
DT- Mo Hurst- 5th Sr.
DE- Chase Winovich - RS Jr.
LB- Mike McCray - 5th Sr.
LB- Devin Bush- true Soph.
LB/Viper- Khaleke Hudson- true soph.
CB- David Long- RS Frosh.
CB- LaVert Hill- true Soph.
S-Josh Mettelus- true soph.
S-Tyree Kinnel- Jr.

7 of their 11 starters on defense last week were either true freshman, RS Freshmen or true sophomores. A lot of guys backing those guys up are just as young. Another 6 defensive players who were the next men off the bench in that two deep- true frosh, RS frosh, or sophs. CB Ambry Thomas, CB/S Jaylen Kelly-Powell, DE Kwity Paye- all 3 true freshman. LB Josh Uche and DT Mike Dwumfour- RS Frosh, DE Carlo Kemp - true sophomore.

13 of their top 22 players on that defense are basically pups. That's just the defense. On offense they've lost their starting QB and are starting a RS freshman at QB. Starting a true freshman at RG. All of their best receivers are true freshman- and the best one of that bunch is Tarik Black and he's been hurt.

It's actually pretty impressive the defense is as good as it's been. A lot of that has been the schedule, but a lot of that is Don Brown is just really good at his job and he's got a lot of talent to work with.

[FearlessF]

you can't win every game every year. They lost 41% of their roster from the previous year. 11 guys drafted by the NFL. Like 4-5 more starting plays signed UDFA contracts. 43 seniors.

when the program is paying 7 mil a year, winning ALL the games is the goal.  Not realistic, but 7 mil a year is crazy too.
only season 3 so he gets a pass on the HUGE loss to the senior class and NFL exodus with the roster he inherited
next season the highly paid super coach better be neck and neck with his adversary, Urban, for the East and have a derned good chance in "the game"

[Mdot21]

when the program is paying 7 mil a year, winning ALL the games is the goal.  Not realistic, but 7 mil a year is crazy too.
only season 3 so he gets a pass on the HUGE loss to the senior class and NFL exodus with the roster he inherited
next season the highly paid super coach better be neck and neck with his adversary, Urban, for the East and have a derned good chance in "the game"

2018 was always going to be his make or break year. If he's not winning the B1G and in the playoff hunt next year, he'll start to hear whispers.

You might see some staff changes this off-season on that offense, and if 2018 is a let down year he probably feels the heat and you probably see major staff on that offense.

If he feels that heat and doesn't make those changes on his offensive staff though and the losing mounts- he might not make it to year 6. That marriage could wind up pretty bad fast. He wouldn't make changes to the 49ers offensive staff- that's one of the big reasons he fought with the GM. GM apparently demanded that Greg Roman be gone as OC. Harbaugh wouldn't budge. We all know how that ended. Harbaugh lost all of his battles with that GM and Owner. The GM wasn't wrong- Roman should've been fired by the way, he absolutely sucks and he's sucked everywhere he's been. The way he went about it probably wasn't bright. Leaking stuff about Harbaugh to the press 24/7 and the GM's daughter going on twitter trashing Roman. Harbaugh is a stubborn prick. That kind of shit is just going to make him dig in harder. He needs to be handled with kid gloves.

[CatsbyAZ]

You might see some staff changes this off-season on that offense, and if 2018 is a let down year he probably feels the heat and you probably see major staff on that offense.

Showing Drevno the door should be the obvious starting point. How was Drevno ever qualified for Michigan OC when his highest job has only been at San Diego? (Not State). He's in over his head and holding back a good team. Hire a proven P5 OC and relegate Drevno to driving Harbaugh's golf cart. That way he can still do the piggybacking he's been doing on Harbaugh's staff for a decade.

[bayareabadger]

2018 was always going to be his make or break year. If he's not winning the B1G and in the playoff hunt next year, he'll start to hear whispers.

You might see some staff changes this off-season on that offense, and if 2018 is a let down year he probably feels the heat and you probably see major staff on that offense.

If he feels that heat and doesn't make those changes on his offensive staff though and the losing mounts- he might not make it to year 6. That marriage could wind up pretty bad fast. He wouldn't make changes to the 49ers offensive staff- that's one of the big reasons he fought with the GM. GM apparently demanded that Greg Roman be gone as OC. Harbaugh wouldn't budge. We all know how that ended. Harbaugh lost all of his battles with that GM and Owner. The GM wasn't wrong- Roman should've been fired by the way, he absolutely sucks and he's sucked everywhere he's been. The way he went about it probably wasn't bright. Leaking stuff about Harbaugh to the press 24/7 and the GM's daughter going on twitter trashing Roman. Harbaugh is a stubborn prick. That kind of shit is just going to make him dig in harder. He needs to be handled with kid gloves.

DVOA rank of offenses Roman has coordinated
6
4
7
11 (the rough last Harbs year)
12 (Bills under Rex)
17 (Bills under Rex)


We think all OCs suck, much like we think all coaches suck.

[Temp430]

Michigan needs to recruit better when in comes to QBs.  A premium needs to be placed on QBs that can have their head repeatedly slammed to the turf or speared with a helmet containing a 310 lb. DT and not miss a single down.

[ELA]

Here it is.  The Big Ten is actively conspiring against Michigan, one of their largest and most profitable fan bases, and have been, since the days of Bo.  I know this represents like 0.1% of the fan base, but it's making the rounds on laughter across all the college football blogs this morning.

The abridged version

https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2017/11/20/16676414/michigan-wisconsin-fan-reaction-week-12

Or if you want to read the full 3,200 word version

http://michigannation2.blogspot.com/2017/11/this-football-season-and-possible.html