Geez, that's literally one of the things I said:
I actually caught that too. When I read
@utee94 's comment I thought I remembered you saying something about voter participation then I went back and reread it and there it was.
The margins are quite thin and, as we've discussed on here previously, most of the vote chasing has shifted from "chasing the middle voter" as was done 20+ years ago to trying to engage non-voters who already agree with you ideologically.
Some of that, I think, will always have a bit of a pendulum effect. Part of the reason that the President's party almost always loses seats in the mid-terms is that the people who are ideologically in the anti-President party are more motivated by all the things that they perceive going wrong.
History of this since WWII:
Republicans currently control the HoR by a razor-thin 220-215 margin so it would be shocking if Democrats fail to take over in 2026. On average since WWII, the President's party has lost about 26 HoR seats in the mid-term.
The Senate election in 2026 is probably more interesting. In that chamber the Republicans hold a 53-47 advantage (effectively, two of the "d" are nominally independent but the caucus with the Democrats).
Republicans have more seats to defend (22 vs 13) but most seats on both sides are in States that lean fairly heavily toward the incumbent party. The exceptions (and thus the likely battleground races in 2026) are:
- New Mexico is D+3 but incumbent Democrat Ben Ray Lujan is considered safe.
- Virginia is D+3 but incumbent Democrat Mark Warner is considered safe.
- Maine is D+2 and incumbent Republican Susan Collins is a slight favorite.
- Minnesota is D+1 and incumbent Democrat Tina Smith is retiring.
- New Hampshire is D+1 and incumbent Democrat Jeanne Shaheen is retiring.
- Michigan is R+1 and incumbent Democrat Gary Peters is retiring.
- Florida is R+3 but incumbent Republican Ashley Moody is considered safe.
- Georgia is R+2 and incumbent Democrat Jon Ossoff is a toss-up.
- North Carolina is R+3 and incumbent Republican Thom Tillis is a slight favorite (depending on who you ask, some say toss-up).
This is a rather difficult map for the Democrats. I listed nine potentially contestable races and there are six Democratic seats (NM, VA, MN, NH, MI, GA) and only three Republican seats (ME, FL, NC). Even if Democrats successfully defend their six contestable seats AND pick up all three contestable Republican seats that would only force JD Vance to spend more time in the Capitol as the deciding vote to give the Republicans a 51-50 advantage in the Senate for two years.
