This is a continuation of my long-running debate with
@MaximumSam in the general BB thread.
I'm posting this to continue that but, more importantly, to get rational views from non-Ohio State fans here. It is easy for us, as fans, to assume that the program we cheer for should be doing better. We all want them to do better. I'm trying to back away from that here and look at it rationally rather than fanatically. IMHO, what I present here is a rational view of the Ohio State Basketball Program. My fanatical view is that we should be Kentucky but rationally, I think we should be better.
My general view is that the starting point has to be a realistic assessment of your program's realistic capabilities. Ie, if I were Purdue's AD I'd be thrilled with a FB coach who averaged 8-10 wins a year and got me to a bowl more often than not. OTOH, if I were tOSU's or Michigan's AD and my FB coach did that I'd be looking for a new coach.
I think that realistic assessment starts with looking at the program's history with some but not too much recency bias. Ie, I don't think looking at what the program did 100 years ago is relevant.
In this case we are dealing with BB and that changed significantly with the expansion of the tournament to 64 teams in 1985 so for Ohio State, if I were the AD, I'd look back to 1985. Since then there have been 38 seasons and 37 NCAA tournaments (one less due to the COVID cancellation in 2020). In those 37/38 tournaments/seasons the Buckeyes have:
- Won or shared the regular season league title nine times (1991, 1992, 2000, 2002, 2006, 2007, 2010, 2011, 2012). That works out to almost once every four years.
- Made the NCAA Tournament 22 times. That works out to a little better than every other year.
- Made the S16 eight times (1991, 1992, 1999, 2007, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013). That works out to a little more than once every five years.
- Made the E8 five times (1992, 1999, 2007, 2012, 2013). That works out to almost once every seven years.
- Made the F4 three times (1999, 2007, 2012). That works out to roughly once every 12 years.
To me, that is at least roughly what the Ohio State Basketball program is capable of. The BB team should be:
- Winning the league once every four or five years.
- Making the tournament a lot more years than not.
- Making the S16 every four or five years.
- Making the E8 every seven or eight years.
- Making the F4 every ~10-15 years.
If the team is achieving at least at that level then all is well. If not, then it is time to start thinking about a change.
Holtmann has been coach for five years (four tournaments) and to his credit his teams have made the Tournament every year that there has been a tournament to make and they clearly would have made it in 2020 so it is fair to him to say that his teams have made the tournament every year. That much is good. The rest is bad. The rest obviously fails to live up to what this program has achieved in the past:
- Zero league titles in five seasons.
- Zero S16's in four tournaments.
- Zero E8's in four tournaments.
- Zero F4's in four tournaments.
At this point Holtmann isn't all that far behind the averages so I'm not saying that he should be fired RIGHT NOW, but he IS behind the averages so his seat should be warm. Improvement should be expected and demanded. If Ohio State were to win the league and go to the S16 next year, then Holtmann would be at:
- One league title in six seasons. This is close to the average of one every four.
- One S16 in five tournaments. This is close to the average of one every four to five years.
The problem is that if Ohio State fails again next year to win a league title of make it out of the first weekend of the tournament then Holtmann will fall even further behind:
- Zero league titles in six seasons. Based on the average he should be at roughly 1.5.
- Zero S16's in five tournaments. Based on the average he should be at >1.
Here is the Ohio State Basketball Program's history since the expansion broken down into what I thought fit as "eras":
When Ohio State has been good, they've been REALLY good. Ayers had a two-year stretch in the 1990-1991 and 1991-1992 seasons where they won:
- back-to-back league titles
- back-to-back S16's
- an E8 appearance.
Matta had a much more impressive peak of an eight-years stretch from 2005-2006 through 2012-13 during which the team won:
- Five league titles
- Five S16's
- Three E8's
- Two F4's
For the last nine years Ohio State's BB team has severely underachieved. They haven't won a league title since 2012 (ten seasons). The last time they went that long between league titles was the 19 seasons between titles in 1971 and 1991. They haven't been to a S16 or E8 since 2013 (eight tournaments). The last S16 gap that long was before there were 16 teams in the tournament and the last E8 drought that long was 1971-1992.
