I really thought the article I posted would get more response.
Sorry, like Badge I rarely watch videos. I prefer to consume written content. I also saw the "clickbait" title and it was a bit of a turnoff. I usually try to stay away from anything with a clickbait title.
I just watched that video and it was a well-done explainer on solid state batteries. So thank you for posting and for following up to draw attention to it. Per your comment, in a way it is "old news" because people who follow the EV market know that solid state batteries carry enormous promise. But as the video points out, they
currently don't have the technological or manufacturing capability to be a better solution than lithium ion. There are a LOT of startups and other companies, beyond Toyota, that are trying to crack that nut. If they are successful, it could make a major improvement in the BEV value proposition and thus adoption.
That said, the fact is that Toyota is seen in public as being "behind" in BEV, opting to spend their time with hybrids. So I can look at all the attention that Toyota specifically is giving to solid state batteries in press releases and public materials two ways:
- Trusting: Toyota is a very smart company with long-range plans. They see a BEV future but they believe that the short-term lithium ion technology is a dead end and that the future market will be dominated by solid state. So they have been biding their time supplying the market with ICEV and hybrid vehicles where there is a known, viable, and profitable, market that they excel in. All while in the background spending R&D funds on where they see the BEV market actually hitting a true transition point. I.e. they decided not to skate to where the puck is, they're skating to where it's going.
- Cynical: Toyota has been seen--rightly so--as behind in BEV development. Because they ARE behind, and they know it. They realize that being behind is a market risk, but by pointing to a solid state future they can both act like they're ahead on future tech, while also fomenting FUD that the current crop of lithium-ion based BEVs are "short term tech". And it's easy to do that, because all it takes is some press releases and marketing collateral, even if they end up missing the mark and solid state batteries come out 2, 5, or 10 years later than projected. It's a low-cost way to protect their reputation while steering customers to ICEV, conventional hybrid, and PHEV, which they have available to sell today.
Personally, I've learned over the last couple of decades been deep in the world of data storage technology not to be all that trusting of press releases that don't accompany actual products. There are a lot of cool technologies that are being worked on in labs and have the
potential to revolutionize data storage; but getting it out of the lab and actually scaling it is a lot harder.
I see solid state batteries for electric vehicles in this category. The promise is there, but the products are not. When we actually see companies delivering on that promise, I'll sit up and take notice.
