Perhaps the BEST B1G Forum anywhere, here at College Football Fan Site, CFB51!!!

They may be slowing their transition rates.

Possibly. Until/unless BEV can become less expensive than ICEV for a reasonable (300+ mile) range, there will always be a natural impediment to mainstream adoption. 

Economics uber alles

Luxury-priced cars are a limited market. Battery costs need to come down if they want to move more volume. And that's a technology problem, not a manufacturing problem. There's no shortcut--need to get the $/kWh down, and that'll happen through chemistry, not manufacturing efficiency. 

This whole talk about battery swapping is utterly wrong.  You're looking at it like the old mobile phones of yore where you could pop the battery out and pop a new one in.  

Modern BEV have extensive cooling and conditioning to keep them under optimal temps.  I'm talking radiators, cooling pumps, heating pumps, miles of piping.  Etc.  Thermal conditioning is everything on a BEV.  Not only that, but the amps/volts are quite large, with big wires and big cables coming and going.  Not something you're going to be able to swap out like the old cartridge's from a video game from the 80's/90's.  The battery packs themselves weigh tons, and they are embedded into the body of the car in such a way that they are not easily removed.  

Unless the packs themselves can be massively shrunk (high energy density) and the thermal requirements eliminated you're never going to see much in the way of swapping battery packs in BEV's outside of some very unusual circumstances.  

WASHINGTON — As part of its ongoing effort to replace diesel-fueled school buses, the Biden administration on Wednesday said it will provide approximately 530 school districts across nearly all states with almost $1 billion to help them purchase clean school buses.

The initiative, part of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s Clean School Bus Program rebate competition, will give funds to school districts in 47 states and the District of Columbia to help them buy over 3,400 clean school buses. Alaska, Hawaii and Nevada are not part of this round of funding.

Nearly all of the clean school buses purchased will be electric, at 92%, according to the administration.

“This announcement is not just about clean school buses, it’s about the bigger picture,” EPA Administrator Michael S. Regan said during a call with reporters on Tuesday, prior to the announcement. “We are improving air quality for our children, reducing greenhouse gas pollution and expanding our nation’s leadership in developing the clean vehicles of the future.”

In Nebraska, the Omaha School District will receive $1.45 million for three electric buses. The Winnebago district will receive $1.035 million, also for three electric buses.

Low-income, rural and tribal communities — accounting for approximately 45% of the selected projects —  are slated to receive roughly 67% of the total funding, per the administration.

Regan noted how “low-income communities and communities of color have long felt the disproportionate impacts of air pollution leading to severe health outcomes that continue to impact these populations.”

As for business and economic opportunities, Regan pointed to the development of new, well-paying manufacturing jobs and investment in local businesses stemming from the increasing demand for these clean school buses.

“As more and more schools make the switch to electric buses, there will be a need for American-made batteries, charging stations and service providers to maintain the buses supercharging and reinvigorating local economies,” he added.

The Clean School Bus Program has now collectively awarded nearly $3 billion to fund approximately 8,500 electric and alternative fuel buses for over 1,000 communities across the United States, according to the administration.

The program started through the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law passed by Congress and signed by President Joe Biden, which includes $5 billion over five years to transform the country’s existing school buses with “zero-emission and low-emission models,” per the EPA.

Among many negative health and environmental effects, especially for communities of color, diesel exhaust exposure can lead to major health conditions such as asthma and respiratory illnesses, according to the EPA.

Exposure to diesel exhaust can also “worsen existing heart and lung disease, especially in children and the elderly,” the agency said.

I agree based on what seems to be happening over time with battery recharging and range.  The infrastructure will develop pretty rapidly from here and EV users will be basically locked into recharging, as will mfgers.

I suspect the inductive recharging MIGHT have some application down the road.  I "fantasize" about the notion of single use high speed lanes with EVs positioned nose to tail traveling at 120 mph like a train with inductive charging.

Yup, is my reason for thinking HSR could be obsolete by the time much is in place.

It's fine.
I'm dreaming or hoping for a breakthrough or 3 that will provide clean green inexpensive power.

I don't have a great amount of faith

I don't even have hope (if nuke is not in the cards).

At least you have faith.

@Gigem  It goes back a ways, and OAM and I have sparred on it quite a bit. I personally believe that it doesn't make sense for mainstream passenger cars, and that by the time there might be solutions to the very significant technological/logistical issues with battery swaps, charging solutions will be so ubiquitous to make the point moot.

However, I reopened the discussion by posting this link: https://cleantechnica.com/2024/05/27/data-on-battery-swapping-for-heavy-and-light-vehicles-is-nuanced/

I know you only check in every few days, so if you missed that, I recommend checking it out.

It doesn't disagree with the "battery swaps probably won't be a thing for mainstream passenger cars" thesis, but it does expand on some of the areas where battery swap technology may actually make some sense, including covering some use cases I hadn't thought of previously.

I thought it was a well put together piece, which is why I shared it.

I skim most of the posts, I did not check on the link.