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Michigan at 8, OSU at 7, and Clemson at 6.

you've seen his list, haven't you?

6. Georgia Bulldogs

#5 in SEC

Georgia still reached the SEC Championship Game, and went into December controlling their own destiny, and you can argue just how much anyone cared about the Sugar Bowl, but it’s still hard to view the end of last season as anything other than a disaster.  For the second consecutive season the Bulldogs had their dreams dashed because they couldn’t hold a lead against Alabama.  This time blowing a 14 point third quarter lead to a backup quarterback, after a missed chip shot field goal that would have given them a three score lead.  It was the 16 play, 80 yard, 7+ minute drive to tie the game that was the back breaker, with Jalen Hurts converting three third down conversions with passes of 10 yards or more.  That was the problem too often last year, is that while the defense was good, it was not great, like it was in 2017, dropping from #7 to #29 in the nation in ypp allowed, and not coming up big in big moments.  They gave up 27.8 ppg over the final four games of the season, which included UMass and Georgia Tech, and in their lone regular season loss, let LSU score 36.  The back seven looks to be both experienced and loaded, but the front, in a league known for dominating defensive lines, is what holds Georgia back from getting farther than they did last year.  The Bulldogs averaged only 1.8 sacks per game a year ago, #84 in the country.  D’Andre Walker had 7.5, nobody else on the team had more than 2.  Where is the pass rush going to come from?  Offensively, Georgia was hit hard by early draft departures, losing one-half of their running back tandem, their top two receivers, and their starting tight end, all a year early.  Still, most teams would kill for a backfield of Jake Fromm and D’Andre Swift.  Fromm too often gets passed over among elite quarterback talk, simply because of the style of Georgia perhaps?  He was third in the nation in Total QBR last year, behind only Kyler and Tua, ahead of Dwayne Haskins, Trevor Lawrence, Will Grier, etc…  He’s doing that with the worst Run Expected Points Added of any quarterback in the top 40, one of only four in the top 40 with an actual negative points added per run.  D’Andre Swift averaged 6.4 ypc, splitting time with Elijah Holyfield.  So there are no questions there, but at the rate Georgia runs the ball (which at 60.3% was second highest in the SEC) another back needs to step up to shoulder the load.  Granted, at this point does anyone doubt that Georgia is going to find another running back?  Brian Herrien, who averaged 5.9 ypc on 50 carries a year ago, and James Cook who had 41 carries for 6.9 ypc seem like the obvious choices.  Zamir White was a tantalizing talent out of high school, but after redshirting as a true freshman last year with a torn ACL, you do wonder what he has.  And with this much competition among underclassmen, and another 4* freshman on the way in Kenny McIntosh, you wonder if White finds himself buried.  It’s a good problem to have for Georgia.  Receiver is a much different issue.  Jeremiah Holloman, who started 5 games and had 24 receptions is the only guy with any sort of meaningful experience.  There is a major opportunity for new guys to contribute here, with the Bulldogs reeling in two of the top 5 receiver recruits in George Pickens and Dominick Blaylock.  They could both find their way into the starting group, with Pickens on the outside, and Blaylock in the slot.  They also have an interesting resurrection option in Demetris Robertson, a Cal transfer, originally from Georgia, who was the #1 WR in the 2016 class.  He saw limited action last year, but was getting a lot of work in the spring as the #1 guy in the slot.  The line is a competition that should go into the fall at several positions, but not left tackle, where junior Andrew Walker is almost certainly in his last season in Athens.  He was First Team All-SEC as a sophomore, and in the CBS 2020 mock draft released yesterday, Thomas was slotted #2 overall to the Cardinals.

	KEY PLAYERS
QB	Jake Fromm, Junior
RB	D'Andre Swift, Junior
T	Andrew Thomas, Junior
	.
LB	Tae Crowder, Senior
S	Richard LaCounte, Junior
S	J.R. Reed, Senior

5th in the SEC and 6th in the nation!!!

CBS would accuse me of an anti-SEC bias

I appreciate you doing this @ELA , thank you. 

One thing I usually use it for is to get a gauge of Ohio State's schedule.  Here it is per this list:
Date   @/vs   Team   ELA Rank
31-Aug   vs   FAU   94
7-Sep   vs   Cincy   22
14-Sep   @   IU   53
21-Sep   vs   Miami, OH   109
28-Sep   @   UNL   51
5-Oct   vs   MSU   31
18-Oct   @   NU   28
26-Oct   vs   UW   18
9-Nov   vs   UMD   65
16-Nov   @   RU   102
23-Nov   vs   PSU   13
30-Nov   @   M   8

The things that pop out at me are:

Ohio State's schedule is heavily back-loaded.  Per this list, tOSU is #1 in the B1G and the last two games are against #2 and #3.  #4 Wisconsin is just before Halloween so the Buckeyes will get to late October before playing any of the other top teams in the league. 

The OOC is about average but gets there in an unusual way.  There is a bad CUSA team (FAU) and a bad MAC team (Miami, OH) then there is a very good opponent.  Cincinnati is ranked #22 which is better than a LOT of P5 teams but they are from the AAC so it will not be seen as that great of a game, we'll see. 

I know I have griped about this before, but I HATE the way the B1G has decided to back-load the big games.  Per ELA's list, the Buckeyes will play the next two best teams not only in the division but in the league overall in back-to-back weeks to end the regular season.  Then, if the Buckeyes are lucky enough to make it to the B1GCG they will play another tough opponent there.  That makes for a grueling end to the season. 

Breaking the season into chunks to get a basis for a projection, I came up with this:

The easiest games, 4-0:
 - vs #109 Miami, OH
 - @ #102 Rutgers
 - vs #94 FAU
 - vs #65 Maryland
Maryland is clearly a lot better than the others but that is at home and they gave the Buckeyes a big scare last year, the Buckeyes should go 4-0 in these games. 

The next group, 2-1:
 - @ #53 Indiana
 - @ #51 Nebraska
 - vs #31 Michigan State
MSU is a lot better (per ELA's list) than the other two but they are at home while the other two are on the road.  IF the Buckeyes really are #7 then there is a good chance that they will sweep these three but Lincoln can be a VERY difficult place to visit, the Spartans have given the Buckeyes fits in Columbus, and Indiana usually plays up for the Ohio State game. 

The tough group, 3-1:
 - @ #28 Northwestern
 - vs #22 Cincinnati
 - vs #18 Wisconsin
 - vs #13 Penn State
The thing that helps a LOT here is HFA.  If the Buckeyes were playing three of these on the road and one at home instead of the opposite then I would probably pick them to go 1-3 or *MAYBE* 2-2 but with the three toughest of these games at home, I think 3-1. 

THE GAME, 0-1:
 - @ #8 Michigan
Ohio State has been phenomenal against the Wolverines ever since Cooper got canned but you just can't project a win when your #7 team is playing #8 on the road.  I hope so, but I'll believe it when I see it. 

That adds up to 9-3. 

On the upside:  I could see 10-2 or even 11-1 if the Buckeyes win their home games (MSU, Cincy, UW, PSU) and get achievable wins at Northwestern, Nebraska, and Indiana. 

On the downside:  I could see 8-4 or even 7-5 if HFA isn't enough help against some of the tougher visitors (PSU, UW, Cincy, MSU) and/or the Buckeyes lose some of the tougher road games (NU, UNL). 

The B1G-W race based on @ELA 's projections:
ELA Rank   Team   x-over   x-over   x-over   Toughest   2nd Toughest   3rd Toughest
15   IA   @ #8 M   vs #13 PSU   vs #102 RU   @ #18 UW   @ #28 NU   vs #32 MN
18   UW   @ #7 tOSU   vs #8 M   vs #31 MSU   vs #15 IA   vs #28 NU   @ #32 MN
28   NU   vs #7 tOSU   vs #31 MSU   @ #53 IU   vs #15 IA   @ #18 UW   vs #32 MN
32   MN   vs #13 PSU   vs #65 UMD   @ #102 RU   @ #15 IA   vs #18 UW   @ #28 NU
44   PU   @ #13 PSU   vs #53 IU   vs #65 UMD   @ #15 IA   @ #18 UW   @ #28 NU
51   UNL   vs #7 tOSU   vs #53 IU   @ #65 UMD   vs #15 IA   vs #18 UW   vs #28 NU
91   IL   vs #8 M   @ #31 MSU   vs #102 RU   @ #15 IA   vs #18 UW   vs #28 NU

Two things jump out to me.  First, we have made a lot of comments over the past few years about Iowa's lucky scheduling but there will be none of that this year.  In addition to travelling to Ann Arbor, the Hawkeyes play the next two best teams in the division on the road.  It would not be impossible for Iowa to be the best team in the B1G-W and go 5-4. 

Second, Nebraska could make more noise than expected.  They get the three best B1G-W teams at home and their crossover schedule isn't too bad with a tough home game against Ohio State and games against Indiana (home) and Maryland (away). 

Wisconsin's schedule is interesting.  The bad news is that they are the only team in the B1G-W that has to play both the Buckeyes and the Wolverines.  The good news is that they host the Hawkeyes and the Wildcats so if they can win those home games and get the Axe back from the Gophers then it probably will not matter they they have the toughest crossover schedule. 

I'd appreciate a little noise

5. Florida Gators

#4 in SEC

How much of an upgrade was Dan Mullen over Jim McElwain?  Florida went 4-7 in 2017, and went 10-3, finishing #7 in the polls last year, lost five players early to the NFL Draft, and I still think they’ll be even better this year.  The talent always has been there.  In 2017, Florida got whipped up and down the field by Michigan and Florida State, last year, they closed the season by beating those teams, by a combined score of 82-29.  Mullen took largely the same personnel that was one of the 20 worst offenses in the nation in 2017, and averaged 13 more points per game, going from #108 to #37.  The biggest transformation was quarterback Feleipe Franks, who shook off a very average (at best) freshman effort, and seized control of the quarterback job, when a lot of people assumed true freshman Emory Jones was going to take it from him.  Franks improved his passer rating by 30 points, his completion percentage by 4%, his yards per attempt by 1.3 ypa, and most impressively he went from accounting for 9 touchdowns (including rushing and passing) to 8 interceptions as a freshman, and 31 touchdowns to 6 interceptions as a sophomore.  There may be some limited packages for Jones, but it seems to be Franks’ job now, but he is one shaky performance away from Jones or Kyle Trask taking it away.  He will have to make a lot more happen on his own, losing four starters off of what was one of the best lines in college football, ranking #12 in the nation in line yards, and were #1 in passing down sack rate, surrendering a sack only 0.9% of the time in such situations.  The remaining skill positions are flush with experience, particularly receiver, where every key contributor returns.  While Jordan Scarlett left early for the NFL, senior Lamical Perine, who had the better season, did not.  Dameon Pierce, who ran for 424 yards on 6.1 ypc as a true freshman, seems more than ready to step up into Scarlett’s vacated role.  The only question is whether his second half fade last year was freshman fatigue, level of competition, or limited use as the schedule ramped up.  He began the year with efforts of 75, 87, 63, 30 and 40, but didn’t play against Kentucky or LSU, and finished with 10, 9, 19, 77, 15, and -1, with the 77 coming in the SEC’s “bye week” against Idaho.  The defense lacks the obvious star power of last year, with Cece Jefferson graduating, and Jachari Polite, Chauncey Gardner-Johnson and Vosean Joseph all leaving early for the NFL.  But they still return 7 starters from a unit that allowed just 20 ppg.  The defense is led from the back, with a group that might be the best secondary in the country.  If Gardner-Johnson had returned, you could take away the might.  C.J. Henderson had no choice but to return, but probably would have been selected if eligible.  Gator fans shouldn’t plan on him for 2020 though.  He is the star of a group that allowed just 178.9 passing yards per game, 2nd best in the SEC.  They get back Marco Wilson, who became the fourth cornerback in school history to start opening day as a true freshman in 2017, but was lost for the season in just the second game last year as a sophomore.  They’ll have to figure out a way to do it with significantly less pass rush.  The Gators were 15th in the nation in sack rate last year, thanks to a front line that struggled at times against the run, but were 5th in defensive line sack rate on standard downs.  Polite was their dominant lineman, with Jefferson playing the RUSH specialist role.  Both are gone, as is linebacker Vosean Joseph, who was really the only linebacker to excel in that role.  Jabari Zuniga should play one end spot, but is better as an edge holder than a pass rusher.  The answer may be Louisville transfer Jonathan Greenard, who led the Cardinals with 7 sacks in 2017, before suffering a season ending injury in the opener against Alabama last year.

	KEY PLAYERS
QB	Feleipe Franks, Junior
RB	Lamical Perine, Senior
WR	Van Jefferson, Senior
	.
DE	Jabari Zuniga, Senior
LB	David Reese II, Senior
CB	C.J. Henderson, Junior