| 10. Syracuse Orange |
| #2 in ACC |
While it didn’t necessarily seem as though it was trending in any one direction, Dino Babers’ program broke out in Year 3, and Syracuse had its best season in 17 years, going 10-3 and finishing #15 in the final polls. Since going 10-3 and finishing #14 in 2001, the Orange hadn’t ever finished ranked, had been to just three bowls, and had only had a winning conference record three times, never since leaving the Big East for the ACC. It’s easy to write it off as a one season flash in the pan, with a schedule aided record, but I actually think the Orange are for real, as long as Babers remains in upstate New York. For real as in a threat to Clemson? On one hand, no. On the other, they beat them in 2017, and should have beaten them in 2018, in Death Valley, if not for a comeback led by a third string quarterback. But there were plenty of other metrics, not just human polls, that were on board. They finished #18 in the Massey Composite. Babers up tempo offense still seems to have an edge over ACC defenses. The Orange averaged 15.75 possessions per game, most in the nation, and 82.92 plays per game, second most. Only eight teams played at a faster pace than the Orange’s 2.70 plays per minute. But of those pace teams, Syracuse was the most effective (although it would take a much deeper dive than I’m willing to take to find out all of the reasons) at getting opponents to play at their pace, of any team in the nation. Of the top 11 pace teams in the nation, none had opponents play at as quick a pace as the Orange. While Babers isn’t going to change his mentality, you do wonder how much of that tempo was aided by a senior quarterback, who had been starting at least some games since his freshman year. Eric Dungey graduated as the school’s all time passing leader, and also finished second in rushing yards for a quarterback, behind only Bill Hurley, who played in the 70’s, but about 400 yards ahead of some dude named Donovan McNabb, who is now third on that list. Sophomore Tommy DeVito is the likely successor, and he saw decent action last year as a redshirt freshman, appearing in 8 games, and throwing 87 passes. As a passer he should be fine with experience, but he is nowhere near the runner that Dungey was. And Dungey’s running ability was worked into the offensive scheme with increasing frequency as his career progressed, and some adjustments will have to be made. Otherwise the ground game, which averaged over 200 yards per game, looks to be in great shape, when leading rusher, Moe Neal, who averaged 5.6 ypc, elected to return for his senior season. He’s now joined by Oklahoma transfer Abdul Adams, who averaged 9.2 ypc as a sophomore, on 59 carries. The receiving group is in equally fantastic shape, losing Jamal Custis, but returning three players who had over 40 receptions, including Taj Harris, who was a breakout true freshman star last year. They also add transfer Trishton Jackson, who was the #1 receiver at Michigan State at one point. Considering the pace Syracuse plays at, both ways, thus averaging the most possessions per game, the fact that they were 6th in the ACC in scoring defense is actually quite remarkable. They were not terrible on a per play basis, finishing 7th in the ACC, but they were very opportunistic, finishing 4th in the nation in takeaway rate, and 6th in turnover margin, first in the ACC in both. 6th nationally in third down defense and 5th in sacks per game, 2nd in the ACC behind Clemson in both. Some of those are things, that frequently revert to the mean, so while Syracuse’s defense isn’t bad at all, considering they were on the field for 73 plays per game, it still should result in more than 27 ppg allowed. They do return seven starters, led by Andre Cisco, who may have been the best safety in the ACC last year, as a true freshman, so they per play numbers should come down to compensate. What should continue to be outstanding is the special teams, with both kicker Andre Szmyt and punter Sterling Hofrichter earning first team All-ACC honors, helping a special teams unit rank #2 in S&P+, and both returning for 2019. Receiver Sean Riley also led the ACC in punt return yardage, averaging 16.4 yards per return, 5th best in the nation.
| KEY PLAYERS |
| RB | Moe Neal, Senior |
| WR | Sean Riley, Senior |
| K | Andre Szymt, Sophomore |
| . |
| DE | Alton Robinson, Senior |
| S | Andre Cisco, Sophomore |
| P | Sterling Hofrichter, Senior |
| 9. Central Florida Knights |
| #1 in American |
This is just about the hardest team to figure, because I have no idea how good they actually are. They’ve lost only one game over the past two seasons, so they are clearly the tallest of the midgets, but how much taller? Then you have the McKenzie Milton issue. Arguably the most dynamic quarterback in the nation, who suffered a horrific knee injury in the Knights’ regular season finale. When I was compiling these rankings back in January, there was too much uncertainty there. Was he done forever? Was he returning in 2019? Partway through 2019? How close to 100% would he be if/when he did return? I chose to treat it as though he was a returning player, which now seems certainly wrong. He is able to walk some without crutches now, but even by his own words, he’s planning a 2020 return. That would send UCF way down in these rankings, at least into the low teens. Darriel Mack Jr. did not exactly instill a lot of confidence in replacing Milton down the stretch. He was 5-14 for 81 yards and 51 rushing yards finishing that USF game, and 11-30 for 97 yards with -3 rushing yards in the Fiesta Bowl loss to LSU. He did play well against Memphis in the AAC Championship Game, digging the Knights out of a big early hole with 348 passing yards and 59 rushing yards. It’s the lack of consistency that is most concerning, with a completion percentage below 37% in two of those three games, and averaging just 2.7 ypc. Maybe with a full offseason to tinker the offense away from Milton’s strengths it will go better. If Milton was back and 100%, this would otherwise be the most loaded offense of the Central Florida three year renaissance. It starts up front with the return of four offensive linemen, including three first team all-conference players, from a line that ranked top 15 in the nation nearly across the board in offensive line metrics, including #8 in line yards. They’ll be blocking for a fantastic running back duo of Greg McCrae, who ran for 1,182 yards on 8.9 ypc, and Adrian Killins, who somehow was the one of the two to earn all-conference honors, while running for 715 yards on 4.9 ypc. As far as targets go, the Knights return five of their top six receivers, including receiving leader Gabriel Davis, as well as their top tight end. In other words, if this offense doesn’t work, it’s 100% on Mack. Their defense was actually better by most metrics last year than it was in 2018, but overall it still feels like they are playing with fire, regarding overly relying on turnovers. The Knights have led the AAC in turnover margin each of the last two years, finishing #2 and #3 in the nation, respectively. Hell, just being very good in back to back years is tough enough, but to be top 3 nationally? Just for comparison, the two teams ahead of UCF last year, Georgia Southern and Kansas, were #49 and #126 in 2017, and the one team ahead of them in 2017, Wyoming, fell to #48 last year. That’s how you wind up second in the AAC in scoring defense, while ranking 8th in total defense. For comparison, the 8th best scoring defense, Navy, allowed 11 more points per game than UCF. On the other hand, UCF only won one game last year (31-30 at Memphis) by less than 11 points. So maybe the gap is just that wide.
| KEY PLAYERS |
| RB | Greg McRae, Junior |
| WR | Gabriel Davis, Junior |
| C | Jordon Johnson, Senior |
| . |
| LB | Nate Evans, Senior |
| CB | Nevelle Clarke, Senior |
| S | Richie Grant, Junior |
