Saturday and Sunday
| 66. Houston Cougars |
| #4 in American |
Houston proved they are serious about being the marquee program in the conference by firing Major Applewhite after only two years and a 15-10 record to poach Dana Holgorson away from West Virginia. Simply being good mostly, isn’t good enough. This program seemed right on the cusp before losing Tom Herman to Texas, and they now see Central Florida, and want that. Really, there’s no reason not to, they see a currently top 10 ranked basketball program, hosting College Gameday, and have the resources the fund it. He takes over a team that has plenty of offensive weapons, but is a very, very sad case on defense. That’s where things began to tumble under Applewhite, although I’m not sure how exactly Holgorson is a guy who is going to change that trend. Yes, Houston was about offense, but they had elite defensive talent, and up until last year had been also one of the best defenses in the league too, even aside from Ed Oliver. But that side, even starting 7 seniors, plus Oliver last year took a total nosedive, allowing over 500 ypg, which was (everyone together again) the most in the league of anyone not named UConn. Looking at the returning talent, it’s tough to find much of it. Seven of the nine leading tacklers are gone. The Cougars return a solid pair of starting safeties, but how much you want back from a secondary that allowed 277 passing yards per game, is anyone’s guess. Holgorson is still an elite offensive mind, but offense was not an issue for Applewhite last year. The Cougars averaged 43.9 ppg, most in the conference, and fifth most in the nation, and yet went 8-5, including losses in four of their last five, and a pair of losses when scoring 49 points themselves. The other four teams in the top five in scoring lost 5 games...COMBINED. So unless you think a guy like Holgorson, replacing 8 starters, is actually going to make the defense better in 2019, the question is can the offense be any better? Actually, it possibly could. With McKenzie Milton suffering his horrific injury, no AAC school enters 2019 with more certainty at the quarterback position than Houston. D’Eriq King is dynamic, rushing for 674 yards and 14 touchdowns on 6.1 ypc. But where he has surprised everyone is in his development as a passer. There was always room for improvement, but he blew past his supposed ceiling last year, completing 64% of his passes with 36 touchdowns to go with just 6 interceptions, to lead the conference in passing yards, completion percentage, passer rating, and total offense. Honestly, if not for his reputation going into the year, Milton may not have even won AAC Player of the Year over King. He returns his top 5 receivers to throw to, although tight end Romello Brooker, and his 7 touchdowns will not be easy to replace. Patrick Carr gets overlooked as a back in probably the conference with the deepest stable of production, but he averaged 5.7 ypc. The interior of the line needs to be revamped, but both tackles, who were first year starters a season ago, are back. With those rave reviews, it’s hard to remember how low I have this team, until you remember everything I just said could be said about last years team, except the defense may actually be worse, and it’s tough to average more points than the Cougars did. Long term, the program should be fine. The commitment has never been higher. You could argue their level of commitment exceeds any other Group of 5 school right now, and they have a wealth of talent in their backyard. So it should continue to be good enough for now, and better in the future.
| KEY PLAYERS |
| QB | D'Eriq King, Senior |
| RB | Patrick Carr, Senior |
| WR | Marquez Stevenson, Junior |
| . |
| LB | Leroy Godfrey, Senior |
| S | Gleson Sprewell, Junior |
| S | Deontay Anderson, Junior |
| 65. Maryland Terrapins |
| #12 in Big Ten |
If nothing else, 2019 hopefully provides the Maryland football program with some stability after a 2018 that was anything but. That has already been hashed out plenty, and speculating on how much it impacted on the field results is pointless. It is worth noting that Maryland was one of the hardest teams in the nation to peg last year, looking as good as anyone in the Big Ten on some days, and looking like they belonged in the basement on others. The beat Texas, should have beaten Ohio State, and their three Big Ten wins all came by 27 points or more. But they also got throttled by Temple, Michigan State, Iowa, Penn State and Michigan, all by 21 points or more. Gone is Ty Johnson, and his low usage, freaky ypc numbers, but in Anthony McFarland Jr., they found a freshman, who actually put up better ypc, and did it on 11 carries per game, as opposed to just 7 for Johnson. The chunk play reliant ground game has been a staple of Maryland for a few years now, so it will be interesting to see if the new staff can keep that aspect rolling. It has made their offense far more fun to watch than a typical offense with similar overall numbers. It’s not the guy(s) carrying the ball that concern me, it’s the guys blocking for them, with Maryland graduating three all-Big Ten offensive linemen. Granted, those honors may have been more a product of those rushing numbers, than their actual performance, because the S&P+ numbers for their offensive line, are not pretty. #83 in the nation in line yards, #108 in stuff rate, bottom ten nationally in sack rate, for both all downs and standard downs. At least just bottom twenty in passing downs. Oddly, that may actually be a positive for Maryland fans, that the guys they lost weren’t actually as good as the postseason honors would suggest. One of the odder decisions of the previous regime was how adamantly they stuck with Kasim Hill at quarterback. Between the two, Tyrrell Pigrome was the better runner, and Hill thought to be the better passer, except he never looked right passing last year, failing to throw for even 100 yards in six of his ten starts. Hill suffered his second torn ACL, and entered the transfer portal, but Pigrome is not getting the job by default. Virginia Tech transfer Josh Jackson, and incoming four star recruit Lance LeGendre should be in the mix. It does not appear LeGendre is enrolling early, so him winning the job out of the gate would be surprising. New defensive coordinator Jon Hoke, who at 62 is getting his first solo coordinating job since 1999-2001 under Steve Spurrier at Florida, is tasked with continuing the growth from a year ago. The Terps rose from being probably the worst defense in the Big Ten in 2017, to firmly in the middle last year, led by an outstanding secondary, that could be even better this year. Maryland was susceptible to the big passing play, but held opponents to just 54% completions, and forced the second most interceptions in the Big Ten. With a pair of all-conference cornerbacks returning, the back line will need to lead the defense again.
| KEY PLAYERS |
| RB | Anthony McFarland Jr., Sophomore |
| WR | Jeshaun Jones, Sophomore |
| K | Joseph Petrino, Sophomore |
| . |
| CB | Antoine Brooks Jr., Senior |
| CB | Tino Ellis, Senior |
| S | Antwaine Richardson, Senior |
| 64. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets |
| #12 in ACC |
Very few coaches anymore are allowed to plateau for as long as Paul Johnson did at Georgia Tech. After a great start, that included the school’s first ACC Championship in 11 years in 2009, his second season. Since then the Yellow Jackets went 4-4 or 5-3 in ACC in eight of Johnson’s remaining nine seasons, with a 6-2 season in 2014, which included a win as an at large Orange Bowl participant. That was also the only time during that stretch that Georgia Tech finished ranked. So, while it’s unfortunate that we don’t get to see his offense at the highest levels of college football anymore, it’s also understandable. The school hired Geoff Collins away from Temple as their next coach. A Georgia native, who has made two previous stops at the school, as a graduate assistant under George O’Leary from 1999-2001, then in an administrative role under Chan Gailey in 2006. By bringing his offensive coordinator, Dave Patenaude, with him from Temple, Collins made clear that the offensive philosophy is in for a major overhaul. His style is more of the tempo, spread look, that has seemingly become commonplace. Prior to Temple, he honed his style at Coastal Carolina, where in five years, he had four of his players named as finalists for the Walter Payton Award, which is the FCS Heisman. Give this thing a minute though. Transitioning to this offense from a pro style look was much less dramatic than going from a triple option look, and even still Temple ranked #97 in offensive efficiency in his first year in Philadelphia, improving to #56 last year, while setting a school record with 34.9 ppg. Putting up that many points, while only ranking #56 in terms of efficiency means a lot of pressure on the defense, there are going to be a ton of possessions in Georgia Tech games. That looks to spell trouble for a group trying to replace 7 starters off a defense that was fairly lousy against the pass a year ago. The Yellow Jacket pass defense was the worst in the ACC outside of Louisville, ranking second to last in yards per attempt allowed and pass defense efficiency, allowing opponents to complete 64.7% of their passes, worst in the ACC. The biggest difference is simply going to be the number of plays they are on the field for. Georgia Tech allowed a respectable 369 ypg last year, fourth best in the ACC, but when you consider that, thanks to their offensive style, they were only on the field for 805 plays (61.9 per game), fewest in the ACC, their 6.0 ypp allowed was actually third worst. Adjusting to Temple’s pace for last year, that jumps up to nearly 440 ypg allowed. And that’s assuming a defense with 7 new starters can maintain that same 2018 level. But all eyes truly are on the offense, where KirVonte Benson returns as running back after suffering a season ending injury in the second game a year ago, but Parker Braun, Georgia Tech’s best player, became the best offensive lineman in the transfer portal, and wound up at Texas. The quarterback issue isn’t getting fixed this year. Lucas Johnson, coming off a serious injury himself, is easily the best passer of the group. Tobias Oliver saw action in 12 games last year, but to show how confident they are in him as a quarterback, he attempted 16 passes, and had 152 rush attempts. I think it’s more likely he winds up at a different position once the quarterback depth chart fills out a bit. But James Graham has academic issues, and both quarterback recruits in the 2019 class are dual threat guys who committed to Johnson. It’s no surprised that Collins jumped on a 3* pro style kid from Tampa as the first commit to his 2020 class. He may take a second one. The goal is to avoid the systemic change disaster season, previously mentioned in regards to Rich Rodriguez at Michigan and Chip Kelly at UCLA, that kills the thing before it even gets started.
| KEY PLAYERS |
| RB | KirVonte Benson, Senior |
| WR | Jalen Camp, Senior |
| T | Jahaziel Lee, Senior |
| . |
| LB | David Curry, Senior |
| S | Tariq Carpenter, Junior |
| P | Pressley Harvin III, Junior |
