| 2. Alabama Crimson Tide |
| #1 in SEC |
Alabama has lost big games under Nick Saban. The 2011 LSU game, the Kick Six game in 2013, the 2015 Sugar Bowl and the 2016 National Championship, but it was always close, or fluky, and ultimately fine. Never has Alabama lost a big game that made you take even a half step back to reevaluate things like their four touchdown loss to Clemson in the National Championship Game last year. So on the back of that, and another mass NFL defection, it might be Alabama coming back to the pack again? Nah. There may be some minor questions involving the running game, but the passing game should be lights out. Don’t call Nick Saban old fashioned. Saban was blessed with the best quarterback he’s ever coached, and he let him throw it around. The 29.2 attempts per game is thrown by how often the Tide shot out to a big lead and stayed there. Of Tua Tagovailoa’s SEC record 43 touchdown passes, 31 (72%), came in the first half of games. Tagovailoa is back for one more go round, although he left twice last year with injuries. The backup situation if that happens again is far murkier now. He’s got his four top receivers coming back with him, led by Jerry Jeudy, who is probably the best receiver in the nation. Alabama has produced a bunch of NFL receivers under Saban, but to have this elite an NFL quarterback-receiver combo is terrifying. Really the only issue is at tight end, where Irv Smith declared early for the Draft. Miller Forristall is reliable, but is a blocker, not known for his hands. The fact that Cameron Latu was moved from linebacker to tight end in the spring, and is now a possible starter is not a good sign. The running game lost both Damien Harris and Josh Jacobs early to the NFL, but Najee Harris, who had 783 rushing yards, was the most impressive of the bunch, even though he was third in carries. At the rate Alabama runs the ball, really the only question is whether Brian Robinson Jr., who was not impressive at all last year, steps up into that top rotation, or one of the younger guys passes him. The problem is that neither Jerome Ford or Chadarius Townsend showed much in the spring to prove worth of passing him. The Tide did ink Trey Sanders, the #1 running back recruit in the nation, but he won’t arrive until August. The line also has to replace the entire left side, including left tackle Jonah Williams, the first offensive lineman chosen in the draft, and center Ross Pierschbacher, the fourth center off the board. The Alabama defense is always going to be the Alabama defense as long as Saban is there, but there was some slippage last year. The Tide ranked #7 in Defensive S&P+, which may seem quite fine, but it was the first time since 2013 that they weren’t #1, and the first time since 2010 they were outside the top 3, matching their low of the post first year Nick Saban era. In fairness, maybe we finally blindly overestimated Alabama’s ability to simply reload after losing 8 starters and 47% of their defensive production. Only 2 SEC schools lost more. That shouldn’t be the case this year. Now, Alabama is always going to lose a ton a defensive talent to the NFL, but this year will be more within their normal parameters. The strength is right in the middle with Dylan Moses, who is both the leader and the best player on defense. When your middle linebacker is your best player and your leader, that tends to lead to good things. Combined with Anfernee Jennings as an elite pass rusher on the outside, the linebackers look to be the obvious strength. It’s in front and behind them that don’t look to be quite as good as last year. Raekwon Davis returning for his senior season was huge, with the departure of Quinnen Williams, the best defensive lineman in the country, and the graduation of senior Isaiah Buggs, who led the team with 9.5 sacks. That whole Alabama front depends on that dominant force in the middle, and while he may take a big step forward, the gap from Williams to Phidarian Mathis was massive last year. Granted at this time last year Williams was engaged in a battle just to be a starter, and Saban still brought in a JUCO transfer to be safe, so things change, but the reports were that true freshman D.J. Dale passed Mathis during spring ball. That could be good or bad, but particularly at nose guard, I’m wary of just how ready an 18 year old can be physically. This Alabama team on paper looks better than last years, but there is only one game that matters in Tuscaloosa right now, and has Alabama closed what looked like a large gap between them and Clemson THAT much?
| KEY PLAYERS |
| QB | Tua Tagovailoa, Junior |
| WR | Jerry Jeudy, Junior |
| T | Alex Leatherwood, Junior |
| . |
| LB | Dylan Moses, Junior |
| LB | Anfernee Jennings, Senior |
| S | Xavier McKinney, Junior |
| 1. Clemson Tigers |
| #1 in ACC |
For the record, I had Clemson #1 last year, and never wavered on it. Figured I’d go down with the Tiger ship, when it looked to everyone like Alabama was the best team. Well, at least I got one thing right with this last year. And just like we started with the same team at the bottom as last year, we finish with the same team up top, as boring as it might be. An offense which moved up and down the field on Alabama, proving the 4th best scoring offense in the nation during the regular season was no fluke. The scariest part was that some of Clemson’s freshman seemed to actually find their footing in the Playoff, rather than be scared by the big stage. The playoff games were quarterback Trevor Lawrence’s second and third highest passing totals of the year. Receiver Justyn Ross, from Alabama, set a career high in receptions and yards in the Cotton Bowl win over Notre Dame...then broke them against Alabama. Tee Higgins had been the #1 option all season, earning All-ACC honors, and now he might be #2 on his own team. Travis Etienne, who went for 1,658 yards, fourth highest in the nation, on an ACC best 8.1 ypc, and will carry the rushing load again. Adam Choice graduated, and Tavien Feaster, who was the starter to begin 2017, before being supplanted by Etienne, chose to transfer, so the Tigers are fairly thin at the position. But it also means more carries for the exciting J-Lynn Dixon, who averaged 8.8 ypc on 62 carries as a true freshman. The offensive line lost a pair of all-conference lineman to graduation, including Mitch Hyatt, who started every game over four seasons, and was named ACC best OL each of the past two. The Cowboys getting him as an undrafted free agent might be the steal of the draft. No worries, Clemson still returns three other all-conference offensive linemen. If there is any question mark on this team, it’s the defensive front, which was pegged going into last season as the best...resoundingly. They didn’t disappoint, ranking #1 overall in line yards. But while Christian Wilkins and Austin Bryant shunned the NFL a year ago to hunt a national title, Clelin Ferrell and Dexter Lawrence did not, leaving the Tigers in need of replacing four All-American defensive linemen, three of whom went in the first 17 picks of the NFL Draft, the fourth having to wait for the fourth round. Even Albert Huggins, who acquitted himself very well filling in for Dexter Lawrence in the playoff, while the later was suspended for PEDs, has graduated. Xavier Thomas, who saw solid time last year as a true freshman, looks like a future pro, but beyond him, the entire line is just question marks, a far cry from last year. Clemson recruits well enough that this is all relative, but the gap between best positional group in the country, and biggest question mark on the team is enough to go from national champ to Playoff loss. The linebackers aren’t much better off. Isaiah Simmons led the team in tackles, and was the team’s best coverage linebacker, but the graduated Kendall Joseph, and the now pro Tre Lamar were the best players. Simmons is the lone returning starter in the entire front seven. So why the optimism? Well, by Tanner Muse returning, the Tigers have probably the best safety duo outside of Austin, Texas, in the country. Junior cornerback A.J. Terrell is probably the most sure NFL prospect on the entire defense as of now. Had Trayvon Mullens elected to return, the Tigers would have simply flipped from having the best defensive line in the nation to having the best secondary. As it is, it should still be very good. The only mild question is just how much teams try to pick on sophomore Kyler McMichael, who should start opposite Terrell. They’ll also have to adjust to the fact that it’s unlikely the group in front of them leads the country in sacks for a third straight year. But it really comes down to, who is going to stop them? On paper, this looks like the best offense I’ve ever seen while doing these write ups. Their offense actually put up a better per game average over their final 9 games, once Trevor Lawrence was healthy and starting, but against obviously better competition, than it did against scrubs in the first five games. The sky really seems like the limit. Just beware of Syracuse!
| KEY PLAYERS |
| QB | Trevor Lawrence, Sophomore |
| RB | Travis Etienne, Junior |
| WR | Tee Higgins, Junior |
| . |
| CB | A.J. Terrell, Junior |
| S | Tanner Muse, Senior |
| S | K'Von Wallace, Senior |
