header pic

Perhaps the BEST B1G Forum anywhere, here at College Football Fan Site, CFB51!!!

The 'Old' CFN/Scout Crowd- Enjoy Civil discussion, game analytics, in depth player and coaching 'takes' and discussing topics surrounding the game. You can even have your own free board, all you have to do is ask!!!

Anyone is welcomed and encouraged to join our FREE site and to take part in our community- a community with you- the user, the fan, -and the person- will be protected from intrusive actions and with a clean place to interact.


Author

Topic: CFP Format- The Best 5 seeds in Recorded History?

 (Read 2787 times)

FearlessF

  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 40593
  • Liked:
Re: CFP Format- Why #5 Is An Advantage
« Reply #42 on: July 23, 2024, 01:07:08 PM »
me too
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

GopherRock

  • All Star
  • ******
  • Posts: 2614
  • Liked:
Re: CFP Format- Why #5 Is An Advantage
« Reply #43 on: July 23, 2024, 02:27:54 PM »
I’d actually like to see them go to on campus sites until the championship game.
This. 

Mdot21

  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 15322
  • Liked:
Re: CFP Format- Why #5 Is An Advantage
« Reply #44 on: July 23, 2024, 02:28:56 PM »
me too
Oh no! did Harvey Weinstein or Bill Clinton touch ya in the naughty place? 

OrangeAfroMan

  • Stats Porn
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 19926
  • Liked:
Re: CFP Format- Why #5 Is An Advantage
« Reply #45 on: July 23, 2024, 03:31:21 PM »
You of all people should understand that if that extra game is at home against JMU it isn't a problem, it is a scrimmage.
I also understand that it's a simple math problem.  Even if you have a 90% chance of beating the 12 seed and a 70% chance of beating the "worse" 4 seed, you're down to a 63% chance of winning both.  

Because if you don't include them, then you have a bifurcated system where the G5 have no legitimate opportunity to EVER play for the national championship.

So you have to either find a way to at least give them a long shot opportunity, or you have to split the big boy conferences off officially and not keep this system where we pretend they're all in the same group. What you shouldn't do is lie and say they're all have the same opportunity when you have a structural impediment to half of the teams ever having any opportunity at all. 
We've had a bifurcated system since 1985.
Giving them a longshot opportunity is the same as pretending they're all in the same group.  The big, fat lie has not changed, even with inclusion.

Give me Liberty's path to the NC from last year.  13-0.  Top G5 champ.  12 seed.
They played 8th-ranked Oregon and had a 10% chance of winning, based on the spread.  I don't care that they were utterly destroyed, that's not important right now.  
They had a 10% chance of winning.  Let's say they win.  They're very likely to play 2 teams better than Oregon after that, if they win.
Lets be SUPER conservative and give them a 7% chance of beating an Alabama team and a 5% chance at beating someone like Michigan.
Congratulations, G5 programs!  Welcome to the party.  You are IN the dance!
Your NC chances are......0.035%!  Get after it, guys!!!!  Way better than no chance if you were left out!  
.
It's a sick joke.  It's honestly insulting.  It's like allowing an insistent toddler into a hurdles race.  It's mean.  It's allowing them in just to say you allowed them in.  There is no universe in which a G5 team wins the NC now, which is the same as with the 4-team playoff.  The outcome is no different, and so the big, fat lie may persist.
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

FearlessF

  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 40593
  • Liked:
Re: CFP Format- Why #5 Is An Advantage
« Reply #46 on: July 23, 2024, 03:38:44 PM »
it's a sick joke

they KNOW they'll NEVER win it

they simply want a share of the $$$

it's always about the $$$
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

OrangeAfroMan

  • Stats Porn
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 19926
  • Liked:
Re: CFP Format- Why #5 Is An Advantage
« Reply #47 on: July 23, 2024, 03:43:24 PM »
I thought most here were against a welfare state....
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

betarhoalphadelta

  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 13243
  • Liked:
Re: CFP Format- Why #5 Is An Advantage
« Reply #48 on: July 23, 2024, 04:01:11 PM »
I thought most here were against a welfare state....
It's not a welfare state. It's a mutually beneficial arrangement. If they didn't want to be FBS, it's not like they'd have to shutter their football programs. They could drop down to FCS. They remain FBS because there's an advantage to them. 

And no, they're never going to win it. They were never going to win it in the past either. 

But the situation when this was all just a beauty pageant was, well, all just a beauty pageant. Kent State was never going to win the national championship, but nobody was excluding them from it. They just never would have gotten any votes. 

But instead, we had to have an "objective" and "settle it on the field" national champion. And so we constructed a system which structurally excluded half the sport from the ability to play for the championship and "settle it on the field". 

Letting G5 into the game at least gives them a path, however hopeless it might be, to play for the championship. 

847badgerfan

  • Administrator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 28017
  • Liked:
Re: CFP Format- Why #5 Is An Advantage
« Reply #49 on: July 23, 2024, 04:02:42 PM »
I thought most here were against a welfare state....
The threat of congressional intervention (which is bullshit) makes it no choice.
U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

Kris60

  • All Star
  • ******
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 2557
  • Liked:
Re: CFP Format- Why #5 Is An Advantage
« Reply #50 on: July 23, 2024, 05:02:45 PM »
I also understand that it's a simple math problem.  Even if you have a 90% chance of beating the 12 seed and a 70% chance of beating the "worse" 4 seed, you're down to a 63% chance of winning both. 
We've had a bifurcated system since 1985.
Giving them a longshot opportunity is the same as pretending they're all in the same group.  The big, fat lie has not changed, even with inclusion.

Give me Liberty's path to the NC from last year.  13-0.  Top G5 champ.  12 seed.
They played 8th-ranked Oregon and had a 10% chance of winning, based on the spread.  I don't care that they were utterly destroyed, that's not important right now. 
They had a 10% chance of winning.  Let's say they win.  They're very likely to play 2 teams better than Oregon after that, if they win.
Lets be SUPER conservative and give them a 7% chance of beating an Alabama team and a 5% chance at beating someone like Michigan.
Congratulations, G5 programs!  Welcome to the party.  You are IN the dance!
Your NC chances are......0.035%!  Get after it, guys!!!!  Way better than no chance if you were left out! 
.
It's a sick joke.  It's honestly insulting.  It's like allowing an insistent toddler into a hurdles race.  It's mean.  It's allowing them in just to say you allowed them in.  There is no universe in which a G5 team wins the NC now, which is the same as with the 4-team playoff.  The outcome is no different, and so the big, fat lie may persist.
There is what, 130 some FBS teams?  Realistically, about 5 or 6 have a chance at actually winning it all.  It isn’t about if they can win it.  It’s just about giving them a path.  They could change it to the top 12 teams without autobids and you would still be including teams that can’t win it.

If it’s just about including teams that can realistically win it we can play the regular season, not worry about the results, and just throw those teams into the playoff.

Your argument about it being borderline cruel or insulting would hold more weight if they wait felt like that, but they feel the exact opposite.  They want to be included and I don’t think the event suffers if they are.  It’s actually enhanced.  Most years the 5 is going to put out the 12, whether the 12 is a G5 or the 5th team from the SEC or Big Ten.  And no one will really remember or care.

But if the 12 upsets the 5 that is a much bigger story for the sport if it’s Liberty than if it’s Florida (or Texas, or Wisconsin, etc.). If Florida would beat a 5 seed and then go on to lose in the QF or SF how big a deal is that to you as a Florida fan?  How memorable is it nationally?

If a school like Liberty does that it instantly becomes the biggest win in school history and is recounted by generations of fans.  It’s remembered nationally and highlights are shown every year a G5 plays a blue blood in the playoffs.  It’s a huge story.  In the end, what does it really hurt to include them?

FearlessF

  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 40593
  • Liked:
Re: CFP Format- Why #5 Is An Advantage
« Reply #51 on: July 23, 2024, 06:05:01 PM »
yup, similar to 2018 Loyola Chicago getting to the final 4

Cinderella 
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

OrangeAfroMan

  • Stats Porn
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 19926
  • Liked:
Re: CFP Format- Why #5 Is An Advantage
« Reply #52 on: July 23, 2024, 06:26:04 PM »
Fuck Cinderella. 

So under the old system they couldn't win a NC.
In this inclusion system, they can't win a NC.

How about they form their own division so that they CAN win a NC?!?

There's enough of them.  No more $$$ games where you get destroyed for cash.  You fill your schedule with teams on the same plane, the same universe as you. 

Bad idea.  Terrible.  What am I thinking!?!
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

OrangeAfroMan

  • Stats Porn
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 19926
  • Liked:
Re: CFP Format- Why #5 Is An Advantage
« Reply #53 on: July 23, 2024, 06:26:32 PM »
yup, similar to 2018 Loyola Chicago getting to the final 4

Cinderella
I'm not sure citing a sport with THE most irrelevant regular season is the way to go here.
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

Kris60

  • All Star
  • ******
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 2557
  • Liked:
Re: CFP Format- Why #5 Is An Advantage
« Reply #54 on: July 23, 2024, 06:36:18 PM »
Fuck Cinderella. 

So under the old system they couldn't win a NC.
In this inclusion system, they can't win a NC.

How about they form their own division so that they CAN win a NC?!?

There's enough of them.  No more $$$ games where you get destroyed for cash.  You fill your schedule with teams on the same plane, the same universe as you. 

Bad idea.  Terrible.  What am I thinking!?!
They were in a division where they had a better chance to win a NC.  They voluntarily chose to make the jump to FBS.  Why does that bother you?

betarhoalphadelta

  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 13243
  • Liked:
Re: CFP Format- Why #5 Is An Advantage
« Reply #55 on: July 23, 2024, 06:42:26 PM »
Fuck Cinderella. 

So under the old system they couldn't win a NC.
In this inclusion system, they can't win a NC.

How about they form their own division so that they CAN win a NC?!?

There's enough of them.  No more $$$ games where you get destroyed for cash.  You fill your schedule with teams on the same plane, the same universe as you. 

Bad idea.  Terrible.  What am I thinking!?!
Hey. I'm with you. If they don't have a chance, go form some big-boy football division and FORMALLY exclude them. 

But if we're all going to pretend they're on the same plane as the others, you have to actually have a system where they at least have a Cinderella shot to prove it. 

They're hanging on for the same reason that Purdue is hanging on in the B1G... The checks keep cashing. 

 

Support the Site!
Purchase of every item listed here DIRECTLY supports the site.