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Topic: CFP era performance Ranking

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medinabuckeye1

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CFP era performance Ranking
« on: January 22, 2024, 07:10:24 PM »
Here is my ranking:


What is listed above is the 75 teams that have been ranked in the final CFP rankings at least once.  These range from Alabama, Clemson, and Ohio State which have been ranked in every final CFP ranking down to UTSA which was #25 one year.  

As per usual, Ohio State gets the consistency award.  Not only did the Buckeyes appear in every final ranking of the 4-team CFP era, but the Buckeyes were in the mix for a spot every year with a lowest ranking of #7.  Bama is a very close second with a low of #13 followed by Clemson with a low of #22.  UGA, LSU, Oklahoma, and Notre Dame were each ranked in eight of the 10 final CFP rankings.  

My order (ranking) is:

  • Championships
  • Semi-Final wins
  • Appearances
  • Years ranked
  • Average ranking

This thing has been REALLY top-heavy.  Four teams (Bama, Clemson, UGA, tOSU) have at least two Semi-Final wins.  Between them those four teams account for:
  • 80% of Championships
  • 75% of Semi-Final wins
  • More than three-in-five CFP game participants
  • More than half of CFP appearances

I would give the "Doing more with less" award to Utah.  They have seven final rankings which is tied with Michigan and Oregon.  I would give the "Doing less with more" award to USC although Texas has a pretty good case as well as do their rivals, aTm.  


Mdot21

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Re: CFP era performance Ranking
« Reply #1 on: January 22, 2024, 08:41:42 PM »
Bama played in 2x as many CFP games and won 3x as many Natty's as OSU and played in 3.5x as many CFP games and won 3x as many Natty's as Michigan. DAMN. 

Even if you combine Michigan (4) and OSU's (7) CFP games (11) and Natty's (2) - they're still short of Bama. 

Nick truly was the GOAT. 

LittlePig

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Re: CFP era performance Ranking
« Reply #2 on: January 22, 2024, 08:46:24 PM »
Looking at the 2014-2023  aligmment the count in the top 25 was

SEC-5  -  Bama, Ga,  LSU,  Flor, Ole Miss

Big Ten - 6,  Ohio St, Mich, Mich St,  PSU,  Iowa, Wisc

ACC+ND - 4,  Clem,  ND, FSU,  NCSU

BIG 12 -  5,  TCU,  OK,  Tex,  OkSt, Bay

PAC -  4,  Wash, Ore, Utah, USC

G5 - 1,  Cincy

Looking at 2024 alignment

SEC-7
Big Ten - 9
ACC+ND. -  4
Big 12 -  5
Pac - 0
G5 - 0
« Last Edit: January 23, 2024, 05:22:51 AM by LittlePig »

LittlePig

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Re: CFP era performance Ranking
« Reply #3 on: January 23, 2024, 05:36:57 AM »
Some surprises

Mich St ahead of PSU,  - I guess MSU gets a lot out of its one CFP appearance while PSU never went.

Iowa ahead of Wisc -  I guess Wisc's big run came right before the CFP.  Still,  Wisc dominated the Big Ten West,  winning 4 times VS 3 times for Iowa.  Iowa and Wisc both should get credit for never having a losing season in the CFP era.

TCU ahead of Oklahoma,  it just felt like Oklahoma won the Big 12 every year (and then loss in the CFP).


medinabuckeye1

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Re: CFP era performance Ranking
« Reply #4 on: January 23, 2024, 12:40:14 PM »
Nick truly was the GOAT.
It is really amazing and by looking only at CFP era we are actually shorting him because he had success pre-CFP as well.  That said, just looking at the 10-year CFP era, Bama is #1 in EVERYTHING on my list except that their worst season was marginally worse than tOSU's worst season but even there that has more to do with how other teams finished than it does with how Bama/tOSU finished.  Bama's and tOSU's regular seasons of the CFP era 1v1, 2v2 . . . 10v10:
  • Bama-20 11-0, #1 (I put this one ahead of the 13-0 seasons because there was no fluff.  No FCS games, no mid-majors, 11 SEC Games)
  • Bama-16 13-0, #1
  • Bama-18 13-0, #1
  • Bama-21 13-0, #1
  • Bama-14 12-1, #1
  • Bama-15 12-1, #2
  • Bama-23 12-1, #4
  • Bama-17 11-1, #4
  • Bama-22 10-2, #5
  • Bama-19 10-2, #13

Ohio State:
  • tOSU-19 13-0, #2
  • tOSU-20 6-0, #3
  • tOSU-16 11-1, #3
  • tOSU-14 12-1, #4
  • tOSU-22 11-1, #4
  • tOSU-17 11-2, #5
  • tOSU-18 12-1, #6
  • tOSU-21 10-2, #6
  • tOSU-23 11-1, #7
  • tOSU-15 11-1, #7
In the 10 year CFP era Bama and tOSU each had two 2-loss regular seasons.  Ohio State was ranked #5 and #6 in theirs, Bama was ranked #5 and #13 in theirs.  

Note that Bama entered the CFP as #1 five times.  That is half.  Everybody else in the nation combined only equaled Bama on this metric.  Bama was #1 five times, Clemson twice with UGA, LSU, and M getting one each.  

The Gap between Bama and #2 is humongous, same with CFP appearances:
  • 8 Bama
  • 6 Clemson
  • 5 Ohio State
  • 4 Oklahoma
  • 3 UGA
  • 3 tie M
  • 2 Washington
  • 2 tie Notre Dame
  • 1 LSU, TCU, Oregon, Texas, Cincy, MSU, FSU

Same with Semi-Final wins:
  • 6 Bama
  • 4 Clemson
  • 3 Georgia
  • 2 Ohio State
  • 1 Michigan, LSU, Washington, TCU, Oregon

Same with total CFP Game wins:
  • 9 Bama
  • 6 Clemson
  • 5 Georgia
  • 3 Ohio State
  • 2 Michigan
  • 2 tie LSU
  • 1 Washington, TCU, Oregon

Note that on each of the above metrics #2 is as close to #4 as they are to #1.  Ie, Bama's lead is BIG.  On each metric after Bama the teams are close together but Bama stands out.  


utee94

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Re: CFP era performance Ranking
« Reply #5 on: January 23, 2024, 12:42:03 PM »
A truly remarkable run, and one I don't think we'll ever see come anywhere close to being repeated.  Just a perfect storm of circumstances meeting the right coach in the right place at the right time.

Brutus Buckeye

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Re: CFP era performance Ranking
« Reply #6 on: January 24, 2024, 09:26:06 PM »
He's come a long way since he was limp wristing challenge flags in the NFL. 


TyphonInc

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Re: CFP era performance Ranking
« Reply #7 on: January 25, 2024, 12:26:44 AM »
I think I would have OU and ND above Oregon, TCU, Wash. I feel like being ranked 8 times is more indicative of success than having 1 playoff win.

LittlePig

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Re: CFP era performance Ranking
« Reply #8 on: January 25, 2024, 06:17:16 AM »
I think I would have OU and ND above Oregon, TCU, Wash. I feel like being ranked 8 times is more indicative of success than having 1 playoff win.
Sometimes it's a perception thing.  the perception can be shewed by how well a team actually did in the playoffs and how deserving they are to be in the playoffs in the first place .

TCU is a weird one.  The year they made it to the NCG,  they did not even win their conference,  barely beat Mich in the semis, and got  annihilated in the NCG by Georgia.  So I look at TCU as a top ten team that year that got a little lucky.  Lucky to be in the playoffs in the first place.  Lucky to beat Mich.  On the other hand in 2014,  TCU had a similar resume and missed the playoffs.  Sometimes it's about timing.  I guess it evens out for TCU.

Medina has brought up several examples of Ohio St having similar resumes and half the time they make the CFP and half the time they don't.  It evens out for Ohio St, I guess.

Florida St in 2023 was a little unlucky to go undefeated in a P5 and still not make the playoffs.  Although I believe FSU would have lost to anybody in the CFP.  But in 2014 an undefeated FSU did  make the CFP and also looked unworthy.  So it evens out for Florida St, I guess

Mich St in 2015.was extremely lucky to make the CFP.  Then got shut out in their only CFP game.  And there is no other year where MSU got screwed out of the playoffs to counter balance that.  So I would put down Mich St as over-rated.

Wash in 2023 is similar to TCU in 2022.  Lucky to get to the NCG, although at least Wash was an undefeated P5 champion.  Washington's  other good year they got into the CFP with a 50/50 resume.  So I would put down Wash as a little over-rated overall.

Oklahoma is interesting because they won the Big 12 a lot and made the playoffs a lot.  But never won a CFP game.  But there was one year they took Georgia to overtime.  So Oklahoma may be a little under-rated.

medinabuckeye1

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Re: CFP era performance Ranking
« Reply #9 on: January 25, 2024, 11:36:41 AM »
Responding to @TyphonInc and @LittlePig :

How about this for a ranking system:

  • 3 points for being ranked
  • 4 points for making the CFP (7 total because it is cumulative)
  • 5 points for winning a semi-final (12)
  • 6 points for winning an NC (18).  



LittlePig

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Re: CFP era performance Ranking
« Reply #10 on: January 25, 2024, 12:00:42 PM »
Responding to @TyphonInc and @LittlePig :

How about this for a ranking system:

  • 3 points for being ranked
  • 4 points for making the CFP (7 total because it is cumulative)
  • 5 points for winning a semi-final (12)
  • 6 points for winning an NC (18).
Not a bad idea.  I might break down the rankings even further

Ranked in top 12 - 3 points
Ranked  13 to 20 -  2 points
Ranked 21 to 25 - 1 point

Or something like that.

medinabuckeye1

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Re: CFP era performance Ranking
« Reply #11 on: January 25, 2024, 03:35:05 PM »
Not a bad idea.  I might break down the rankings even further

Ranked in top 12 - 3 points
Ranked  13 to 20 -  2 points
Ranked 21 to 25 - 1 point

Or something like that.
That is a lot more work but I like the idea because I was never altogether comfortable with saying #5 gets the same number of points as #25.  Using this model appended to what I had above would result in:
NC, 18 points:
  • 3 for being ranked top-12
  • 4 for making the CFP
  • 5 for winning the semi-final
  • 6 for winning the NC Game.  
NC appearance, 12 points:
  • 3 for being ranked top-12
  • 4 for making the CFP
  • 5 for winning the semi-final.  
CFP appearance, 7 points:
  • 3 for being ranked top-12
  • 4 for making the CFP.  

Final ranking 5-12, 3 points.  


Final ranking 13-20, 2 points.  

Final ranking 21-25, 1 point.  

medinabuckeye1

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Re: CFP era performance Ranking
« Reply #12 on: January 25, 2024, 05:25:48 PM »
Re-rank using @LittlePig 's suggestions:


I think the immediate thing that jumps out is  that Ohio State is now ahead of Georgia.  As an Ohio State fan, I shouldn't be the one defending that but I'll say this:  I can see both sides of the debate here.  

I think that the VAST majority of fans would take UGA's last 10 years over tOSU's last 10 years in a heartbeat.  They would simply be choosing 2 NC's over 1 NC and that is that.  

The other side is that Ohio State had a much more consistently successful decade.  Georgia's three best seasons were 2 NC's and an NCG appearance.  That easily beats tOSU's best three years which consisted of 1 NC, 1 NCG appearance, and 1 CFP appearance.  Where Ohio State looks better is that tOSU's "other" seven years were VASTLY superior to UGA's "other" seven years.  The "other" seven years:

  • 2 CFP appearances for tOSU, ZERO for UGA
  • 5 more seasons (total of 7) in the top-12 for tOSU, 4 for UGA
  • 1 13-20 ranking for UGA, ZERO for tOSU
  • 2 unranked seasons for UGA, ZERO for tOSU.  
Thoughts?

LittlePig

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Re: CFP era performance Ranking
« Reply #13 on: January 25, 2024, 06:34:14 PM »
Yeah,  I see your point.  Maybe the points should double for each round you advance. 

3 points for being ranked in top 12
An additional 3 points for making CFP (6 points total)
An additional 6 points for making NCG (12 points total)
An additional 12 points for winning the national championship (24 points total) 

 

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