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I think the real title game was Friday night and OSU will win this one easily. Notre Dame is pretty banged up and their offensive line pretty messy. OSU is pretty talented and if they were going to fall, it was going to be Friday as Texas had the talent in the right places to pull a win, but the talent gap for this game is far bigger.

This is my view.  

Before anybody tells me not to overlook Notre Dame, I'm not playing.  You can watch the game on Monday forwards and backwards.  You can record it and watch it again later but no matter how close you look, you absolutely, positively will not see @medinabuckeye1 suiting up and taking the field.  

FWIW, I sincerely hope that my team views Notre Dame as the greatest team in the nation and is preparing to take them on as if it was some monumental uphill struggle but my view as a fan is that Ohio State is a substantial favorite for good reasons.  

Notre Dame has a good defense to be sure but I frankly think that Ohio State's is better.  Since the first Oregon game, Ohio State's defense has been lights out.  Even in the games where the Buckeyes struggled (notably Nebraska and Michigan) the defense did their job:

Nebraska:
Nebraska scored three FG's (39, 54, 47) and a TD with 2pt conversion.  On the three FG drives the tOSU defense gave up some yards but tightened up in scoring position to force FG's rather than TD's.  You shouldn't lose very often when giving up 17.  

I'll also point out that the Nebraska game was sandwiched between epic top-3 games against Oregon in Eugene and Penn State in Happy Valley.  

Michigan:
Michigan scored 13 points on two FG's and a TD but that is unfair to Ohio State's defense because the TD came on a "drive" of two yards and the first FG came on a "drive" of three yards.  Ie, Michigan got 10 of their 13 points on drives totaling just five yards.  It is hardly fair to blame the defense for that.  The defense really only gave up one FG.  

Since giving up 32 points in the first Oregon game, the Ohio State defense has given up:

• 17 to Nebraska (see above)
• 13 to #3 Penn State
• 0 to Purdue
• 7 to Northwestern 
• 15 to #5 Indiana - eight of those 15 were scored with <2 minutes remaining and Ohio State leading by 24.  
• 13 to Michigan (see above, the defense was only really responsible for 3)
• 17 to #9 seed Tennessee - seven of those were scored with <2 minutes remaining and Ohio State leading by 32.  
• 21 to #1 seed Oregon - six of those were scored in the 4th quarter with Ohio State icing a 26 point lead.  
• 14 to #5 seed Texas

It simply doesn't get much better than that.  

As some of you know, one of my favorite CFB podcasts and websites is College Football Nerds because I'm a numbers nerd and because they do their stats relative to other opponents.  By that metric:

• Ohio State is #1 in Scoring Defense at 12.20 ppg which is 57% less than Ohio State's opponents typically score.  
• Notre Dame is #2 in Scoring Defense at 14.27 ppg which is 48% less than Notre Dame's opponents typically score.  

That is to say that I think that Notre Dame's defense is really good but Ohio State's is better.  

What is astounding is that Ohio State is ALSO #1 in relative scoring offense.  The Buckeyes are scoring 35.80 ppg and that is 60% more than their opponents typically give up.  Notre Dame is #4 at 37.00 ppg which is 56% more than their opponents typically give up.  

On both metrics Notre Dame is pretty good and Ohio State is just better.  

Their model projects a 25.9-12.2 Ohio State win.  They have:

• Ohio State outgaining Notre Dame 5.93-4.30 yards per play.  
• Ohio State outgaining Notre Dame 7.40-5.23 yards per pass attempt.  
• Ohio State outgaining Notre Dame 4.62-3.51 yards per rush.  

The ONLY cause for concern that their model raises is that within their model they have what they call a "consistency score" and Ohio State's consistency is basically off-the charts low.  Ie, Ohio State is REALLY inconsistent.  


I frankly think that Ohio State got their "clunker" game out of the way against Texas.  The Buckeyes had multiple unforced errors, mostly dumb penalties.  The penalty on Henderson killed a drive and the momentum.  There was a holding* that was behind the play that killed a drive.  I can't recall off the top of my head but I thought there was another one as well.  

*I'm making a distinction here between a "smart" holding penalty that prevented a sack vs this which was a holding after the play was already past.  

Ohio State's OL is a patchwork mish-mash but guess what, so is Notre Dame's.  Some of that is dumb luck for these teams, some of it is that they are both about to play their 16th game of the season.  Injuries happen and when you play this many games they accumulate.  

I'm not saying Notre Dame can't win.  They certainly can.  I pointed out above that Ohio State is #1 in both relative scoring offense AND relative scoring defense but Notre Dame isn't chopped liver.  They are #4 and #2 respectively so they can definitely challenge the Buckeyes but they aren't better at either one.  The Irish could win but it would most definitely be an upset and a fairly large one at that.  

I have no analysis other than, Ohio State should win by 13. And I didn't read Medinabuckeye's preceding post, until after I had written the 1st sentence of my post. I also didn't view AI on this, either (yet).

Defense isn't as sexy as offense, but "defense _ _ _ _   _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _."
Now, Ohio State has a really good defense, too, and has played tougher competition.
Two options: Ohio State wins big or either team wins a defensive slugfest. ND isn't going to win big.

All of these teams are closer in talent/ability than the media and fans want to believe. 
(Trust me, I agree that Ohio State should be favored.)

It's not that hard to figure out. I would trade at least 10 losses to Iowa in a row for one national championship--particularly if those losses came in years that Wisconsin otherwise had strong seasons. Now, Wisconsin doesn't have any NCs, so maybe if your school has several, the calculus is a little different, but I'm guessing most folks would trade losing to their bitter rival for winning a national title--particularly in the CFP era, where it's going to be real hard for anyone to argue that it's a MNC.
But in a world in which Ohio State loses to Notre Dame? Pretty sure that loss to Michigan goes back to being a big deal (along with the loss to ND).

It's not that hard to figure out. I would trade at least 10 losses to Iowa in a row for one national championship--particularly if those losses came in years that Wisconsin otherwise had strong seasons. Now, Wisconsin doesn't have any NCs, so maybe if your school has several, the calculus is a little different, but I'm guessing most folks would trade losing to their bitter rival for winning a national title--particularly in the CFP era, where it's going to be real hard for anyone to argue that it's a MNC.
But in a world in which Ohio State loses to Notre Dame? Pretty sure that loss to Michigan goes back to being a big deal (along with the loss to ND).

Exactly... I find it really weird that fans of 8-5(!) Michigan are trying to flex on a fan base about to play for the national title, because of a regular season game that ultimately didn't matter because it didn't keep OSU out of the playoff. If OSU wins on Monday, that loss to Michigan doesn't matter at all.

But as you state, if OSU loses, then the Michigan loss can become a big deal again.

I can't even fathom a Purdue NC in football, but to make it more realistic... I'd take getting swept and going 0-3 (regular season + conference tourney) against an IU team that doesn't make the tourney at all in a season of basketball 100 times out of 100, if it was also a year that Purdue won the NCAA Tournament. Let 'em crow about how they beat us three times. Whatever. We won the games when it mattered.

Nobody puts banners up on the stadium marquee of years they beat their rival (surprisingly, not even A&M).  They do put up banners of years they win conference championships or National Championships. 

but, usually the banner years include beating their rivals