Perhaps the BEST B1G Forum anywhere, here at College Football Fan Site, CFB51!!!

To be real, though, Michigan has been on the short list at the end of November throughout Harbaugh's tenure. That's the definition of a healthy program -- in the parlance of James Franklin: maybe a great team, not an elite one. It's also falling short of getting over the hump, which isn't sustainable long-term. Given 2008-2014, I'm satisfied and becoming satisfied took the program some doing. But of course there will eventually be a time when a lot more is expected. MDot is already there. So are other Michigan fans. But I don't think that's a majority. It might not even be close to a majority.

Absent some unforeseeable 5-7 type season, he's fine.  I think he needs at the minimum a CCG appearance (and at that point a win with the East being undefeated there) with OSU undergoing a coaching transition, PSU replacing the QB who saved Franklin's job, and MSU seemingly content to squander an elite defense by just rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic offensively, to ward off a very, very uncomfortable offseason next year.

Absent some unforeseeable 5-7 type season, he's fine.  I think he needs at the minimum a CCG appearance (and at that point a win with the East being undefeated there) with OSU undergoing a coaching transition, PSU replacing the QB who saved Franklin's job, and MSU seemingly content to squander an elite defense by just rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic offensively, to ward off a very, very uncomfortable offseason next year.

Honestly, I don't think that's necessarily true. It depends on who the losses are to. Looking at the schedule, this looks like another 10-2 kind of regular season. If the losses are to OSU and ND, Michigan could squeeze into the CCG, or they could miss it without much hand-wringing.

Now if one of the losses were to MSU (...) woof. Harbaugh would survive it; he wouldn't realistically even be at risk of getting fired by Warde for ... years, if ever (to be honest), but the town and media would become a hellscape.

If Michigan wins 10 games and one of those wins is MSU, the spirit will be "not perfect but that's not bad." It's funny what that means for the rivalry. In 2007 and before, it had become a bit of an afterthought. I think MSU hadn't won consecutive games in 40 years and Lloyd Carr went 10-3, including that 6 game streak lasting through Dantonio's first year. MSU really deserves credit for resurrecting that. Dantonio's record is now 8-4, but there was a real feast between 2008 and 2014, 6-1. That was absolutely and bar-none the hardest thing Michigan fans had to stomach through Rodriguez and Hoke.

And it adds up to there being zero chance for the fanbase to stay sane if they lose that game. There really isn't any game on the schedule that has more outsized rage than versus MSU. Unfortunately, though winning that game is essential, winning it is also unlikely to tilt the scales much in the Big Ten East race, at least not as much as the OSU game can.

I would think he has to go 2-1 vs ND/MSU/tOSU - all in AA.He's in year 5,he has his guys and URBZ has split.IMO barring a rash of injuries  his seat gets warm if he doesn't.

My intent is probably not the same as BB's but I agree, for example, that Harbaugh could win very few games versus OSU and still be the best possible hire. Fortunately, the odds of those wins always being few (presently none) have shifted with Meyer being on the outs. We just don't know to which extent. And we can't know for a half-decade or more.

a warm seat might motivate him to change some things

He just made the biggest change of his coaching career. For the first time, he removed himself from the offense.

I'd welcome that. I've seldom had a problem with his in-game decision making. My prevailing problem had been that he owned an offense that (1) was inflexible, (2) incapable of going no-huddle to speed up meaning the team didn't really have a 2-minute drill and (3) his offense telegraphed plays because the run and pass were coordinated by two guys and were never integrated, so they were too separate, and pass plays infrequently looked like they could *maybe* be runs and vice versa. These are all structural problems engrained through offseason camps.

This year the offense will perhaps never huddle and is being designed by one guy with lots of discussion about running formations that look like they could be anything. I don't know if it'll succeed, but I do think it's a superior way to think about offense.

If Harbaugh, with Gattis's system, ever wants to take over in a big moment -- cool. This isn't one of Harbaugh's problems.