« on: October 26, 2022, 02:00:58 PM »
| Rutgers Scarlet Knights (1-3, 4-3) at Minnesota Golden Gophers (1-3, 4-3) |
| 2:30 - Minneapolis, MN - BTN |
| I don't think anybody thought Colorado or Michigan State were good wins, even at the time, but they were still blowout wins, on the road, against Power 5 teams. So we were ready to buy in to Rowing the Boat. Wisconsin and Iowa were down. Northwestern wasn't having a random Northwestern year. The Gophers dodged Michigan and Ohio State. They had a 6th year starting quarterback. Arguably the best running back in the conference decided to return to college, rather than go pro. If Minnesota was ever going to win the West, this was going to be the year. I guess they are never going to win the West. At this point failing to reach bowl eligibility is more realistic than winning the division. That's not going to happen...I don't think. They still have home games against Rutgers and Northwestern. But it's not ideal. The running game has to get going. Tanner Morgan, unless he's facing the Michigan State secondary, has zero prayer without a run game, and the run game has been largely absent. That, mroe than Morgan's injury was the problem against Penn State. Mo Ibrahim was held to 3.4 ypc, on 30 carries. Yes, Ohio State ran all over Rutgers, but the Scarlet Knights have otherwise been pretty stout against the run. They held Iowa to 3.4 ypc, Nebraska to 2.5 ypc, and Indiana to 3.3 ypc. Over those past two games combined, the longest carry they've allowed is 10 yards. But Rutgers' offense is still not doing anything either. The return of Noah Vedral hasn't helped anything. He actually has career lows (and it's a six year career) in passer rating and completion percentage. I don't think this will be fun for anyone, Minnesota fans, Rutgers fans(?), or any casual observer who accidentally turns on BTN, and then loses their remote. But as disappointing as this month has been for the Gophers, all three losses are understandable. The teams they should handle easily, they have. |
| MINNESOTA 28, RUTGERS 16 |
| #17 Illinois Fighting Illini (3-1, 6-1) at Nebraska Cornhuskers (2-2, 3-4) |
| 3:30 - Lincoln, NE - ABC |
| Just like we all predicted going into the season this is a critical matchup between two teams needing a win for different reasons. One team needing a win to stay in the driver's seat in the Big Ten West, while the other is trying to scrap towards bowl eligibility. We just had the teams flipped. With a win Bret Bielema likely gets Illinois to its highest AP Poll ranking since they were #13 to end the 2007 regular season; and their first 7 game win streak since 2001. This is certainly rarified air for the Illinois program. Nebraska has been playing better as of late, but, based on composite computer rankings, the Huskers' best opponent was #33 Oklahoma. They lost that game 49-14. Illinois is ranked 15 spots higher, at #18. One spot below Texas, who absolutely murdered said Oklahoma team. And as we know, the transitive property in college football is undefeated. Has Nebraska's improved play been due to moving away from the Scott Frost era, or simply an easier schedule? The main problem for Nebraska has been on offense, and they showed some life in a loss two weeks ago at Purdue. Are they turning a corner on that side of the ball? Their best offensive performance to date, heading right into a bye week to build, is needed against an Illinois defense, which, in Big Ten play is #1 in scoring, #2 in total, #1 in rushing, #2 in passing. Of particular concern is that Nebraska is 2nd, behind (ahead?) of only Minnesota, in interceptions thrown rate; while Illinois leads the Big Ten in interceptions caused rate. That's a risk Nebraska might have to live with though, because their more open passing game last week, opened up the running lanes a little bit more. Nobody is running on Illinois though, and the Illini seem to be playing better each week. |
| ILLINOIS 31, NEBRASKA 14 |
| Northwestern Wildcats (1-3, 1-6) at Iowa Hawkeyes (1-3, 3-4) |
| 3:30 - Iowa City, IA - espn2 |
| When this game opened, it had the lowest over/under of any game so far this year. It has already been bet up 6 points, and probably with good reason. Yes, Iowa's offense struggles. But I think because Rutgers takes up all of the air in the room for bad team jokes, people are somehow giving Northwestern a free pass. The Wildcats currently sit at #114 in the Massey composite rankings. Those rankings go back to 1998, and Northwestern currently ranks as the third worst Big Ten team in the past 25 years. And that's with a fluky conference win, across an ocean, seemingly the week after the 4th of July. Would anyone pick that to happen again? Iowa's offense is famously bad, but where do they rank in FPI? #101. Guess who is #100? Northwestern. And the Wildcats' defense is #69, not #1. For good measure they also have the 6th worst special teams in the FBS. Whatever chance Northwestern has, is, I guess, simply that Fitzgerald has done it before. In his 17th season at his alma mater, he trails only Kirk Ferentz in tenure among Big Ten coaches. Not only that, but he has won 3 straight road games in Kinnick, and is 6-3 for his career in that stadium. I wonder if any other programs have 6 wins in Kinnick in that time frame? Northwestern could use the defense that showed up in the rain in Happy Valley. Unfortunately, looking like 65 and sunny in Saturday in Iowa City. Even in losing 54-10 to Ohio State, the Hawkeye defense held the Buckeyes to just 360 yards, under 70 on the ground, AND scored a touchdown themselves. But the offense turned the ball over 6 times. Northwestern forced 5 turnovers against Penn State, on natural grass, in horrible weather, and still lost. Iowa's offense can play a lot more conservative this week, and that should be more than enough, against a historically bad Big Ten team. |
| IOWA 33, NORTHWESTERN 10 |
| Michigan State Spartans (1-3, 3-4) at #4 Michigan Wolverines (4-0, 7-0) |
| 7:30 - Ann Arbor, MI - ABC |
| The last time I felt this way about this game was 2016. Michigan State had controlled the recent results, and was having a down year, while Michigan was rolling and coming off a loss in the series that they felt they should have won. It's the last time I felt like the game meant as much to Michigan as it did to Michigan State, and I get similar vibes this year. Granted that game was in East Lansing, but that Michigan State team was WAY more down than this team, and I'm not sure how much home field advantage that was. Michigan controlled early, Michigan State battled back, and it was closer than expected. That Spartan team had some major locker room issues, but I think also had more talent. I'm not sure how Michigan State stops Michigan. The Spartans run defense is getting healthier, with the return last week of both starting defensive tackles, in Simeon Barrow and Jacob Slade, who had missed multiple games with injury, and the bye week should only help things. Is that enough against a Michigan offensive line that absolutely carved up Penn State on the ground the last we saw them. Or will Michigan just do what Minnesota did, and say, screw it, you can't stop anyone through the air. Cade McNamera had no problem carving up the Spartan secondary last year, with season highs in completions (28), attempts (44), and yards (383). So Harbaugh has shown a willingness to just torch Michigan State through the air, similar to what Fleck did with Tanner Morgan. I expect Michigan State to certainly throw the ball plenty, with as poor as their run blocking has looked. The one position of depth the Spartans appear to have is pass catchers, between receiver, with Jayden Reed back and healthy, and a pair of sure handed tight ends, who also struggle to block. Michigan State is going to give up yards, and have to force Michigan to rely on field goals in the red zone, as they did last year. Problem is Michigan's offensive line looks actually better to me than it did last year, so I don't think they have as much trouble fighting Sparty in a confined space. |
| MICHIGAN 37, MICHIGAN STATE 14 |
| BIG TEN GAME OF THE WEEK |
| #2 Ohio State Buckeyes (4-0, 7-0) at #13 Penn State Nittany Lions (3-1, 6-1) |
| NOON - State College, PA - FOX |
| Penn State's "success" against Ohio State is a little overblown. Yes, they had that 2016 comeback win to launch their Big Ten Championship run. But that is their only series win since 2011, going 1-9 against Urban Meyer and Ryan Day. But...this line seems a little high to me. The Nittany Lions have struggled to get over the hump, but they have consistently played Ohio State better than anyone over the past six years. Aside from that 2016 win, they lost by 1 in 2017 and 2018, 11 in 2019, and 9 in 2021. The biggest loss in the past 6 years was by 13 in 2020, which was Penn State's worst team in that time span vs. Ohio State's best. There are no moral victories in Happy Valley, but just staying within 13 points of Ohio State 6 straight games, is actually an accomplishment. In that same time period, Michigan only did it 3 times, Michigan State once. So, Ohio State might have to play a game that is somewhat in doubt in the fourth quarter for the first time since their season opener against Notre Dame. But can Penn State actually get over the hump? It will be up to their back seven. Against WR U, the pressure on the secondary is self explanatory, but I think this is on the linebackers. The defensive line got (rightfully) roasted for getting bullied by the Michigan offensive line, but that was much more on the linebackers. Michigan's game plan was to double Penn State's interior linemen, and trust their backs to beat linebackers one and one. And they did, over and over. Ohio State's offensive line isn't as good as Michigan's, but their running backs are pretty close. If the linebackers don't make the Buckeyes pay for doing the same thing, this could get ugly. If they do, that opens up the line to have more room to operate outside of those double teams. Then if you start getting pressure like that, your safeties and linebackers can be more dedicated to slowing down that aerial attack. I think much like all recent versions of this game, Penn State challenges the Buckeyes, but Ohio State's march to 11-0 moves on. |
| OHIO STATE 35, PENN STATE 24 |
« Last Edit: October 28, 2022, 03:00:31 PM by ELA »
Logged
