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@SFBadger96 , 15 voters.
I want to talk about this chart for a minute:
I call it the COTY/Hot Seat Chart. Buckeye Fans often complain that Ohio State's coach basically never wins COTY. It doesn't bother me. COTY is basically an award for the coach of the team that most exceeded expectations. Thus, Ohio State's coach is effectively ineligible because expectations in Columbus are so high that they can't be exceeded by enough to win this award.
This chart is a comparison of preseason power ranking to current power ranking. The teams on the left (in the positive) led by Maryland at 5.97 are substantially exceeding preseason expectations. The teams on the right (in the negative) "led" by Penn State at -8.30 are substantially trailing preseason expectations.
If your team is on the left, your coach is in the running for COTY. If your team is on the right then your coach should probably rent rather than buy a home in town.
What stands out to me is that I don't ever remember seeing a team as badly trailing preseason expectations as Penn State is right now. They started out ranked #2 and it was nearly unanimous (their average was 2.10 so barely below #2) and now they are tied with MSU for dead last.
Viewing the season as a whole, I think that PSU is underrated. Their 13 point loss to tOSU and their OT loss to IU are the second best performances all year against those two teams (worse only than IU against tOSU and tOSU against IU). However, the trend is alarming to say the least and the fact that they still haven't won a game is obviously beyond problematic. In the three games since those first two they have:
- A 16 point home loss to Maryland. This is, by far, Maryland's biggest win of the year as their other was an OT win over Minnesota at home. Worst performance so far this year against Maryland.
- A seven point loss to Nebraska. This is Nebraska's only win of the year. Worst performance so far this year against Nebraska.
- A 20 point home loss to Iowa. This is better in that Iowa has done better against two teams (42 point win vs MSU, 28 point win @MN) but it is still a three possession home loss.
Looking at this chart I feel like PSU/M is close to a must-win for both coaches:
- With a loss PSU would drop to 0-6. Even if they won in Picastaway and beat MSU they'd only finish 2-6 after starting the year as the presumed primary challenger to Ohio State in not only the B1G-E, but the whole league.
- With a loss M would drop to 2-4. That is better than PSU, obviously, but Michigan also has a tougher remaining schedule with a visit from Maryland and a trip to Columbus remaining. Thus, if they lose to PSU the Wolverines can't finish .500 without beating both Maryland and Ohio State.