Every team has a chance, but in my opinion, OSU has not nearly a 40% chance.
Everything has to go right for them I think.
Maryland had a "chance" last Saturday despite deeper odds.
I'm not sure about "everything", but close to it. Michigan is a better team. If they play at their ceiling they will win. Full stop.
If Michigan plays at their ceiling then how well Ohio State plays will only determine the margin of the defeat. However, I do believe that Michigan's floor is WELL below Ohio State's ceiling.
Unsurprisingly, both teams looked off last week. Michigan only beat Indiana by 11. This is an Indiana team that lost by 14 to MSU, by 23 to tOSU, and by 26 to Iowa. Ohio State barely survived Maryland in OT. This is a Maryland team that lost by 21 to both Michigan Schools and by 23 to Iowa.
As I see it:
Michigan's ceiling:
Michigan's ceiling is the PSU and Nebraska wins. If they play like that they win.
Michigan's floor:
Michigan's floor is the loss to Notre Dame, the close win over NU, the win over MSU, and the win over IU. If Michigan plays like that then the Buckeyes certainly can beat them. It is no guarantee that they will, but they can beat that team.
Ohio State's ceiling:
I'm not sure that we've seen it. Maybe the RU game but RU is so terrible that it is hard to tell. Maybe the MSU game, but I honestly think the Buckeyes could play better. If Ohio State plays at their ceiling Michigan will have their hands full.
Ohio State's floor:
Ohio State's floor is bad, really bad. The blowout loss to PU and needing OT to survive Maryland are not good. If Ohio State plays like this they would lose by three TD's even to a Michigan team playing at their own floor.