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Topic: 2024 Big Ten Team Wins Predictions

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Temp430

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2024 Big Ten Team Wins Predictions
« on: July 18, 2024, 11:22:27 AM »
By Sports Illustrated...

1. Ohio State, 10.5
1. Oregon, 10.5
3. Penn State, 10
4. Michigan, 9
5. USC, 8.5
6. Iowa, 7.5
6. Nebraska, 7.5
8. Washington, 7
9. Maryland, 6.5
9. Wisconsin, 6.5
11. Rutgers, 6
12. Illinois, 5.5
12. Indiana, 5.5
12. UCLA, 5.5
15. Michigan State, 5
16. Minnesota, 5
17. Northwestern, 4.5
18. Purdue, 4


https://www.si.com/fannation/college/cfb-hq/picks/big-ten-football-win-total-predictions-for-2024-01hxsh9jbe0f

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medinabuckeye1

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Re: 2024 Big Ten Team Wins Predictions
« Reply #1 on: July 18, 2024, 11:34:42 AM »
Quote from: Temp430 on July 18, 2024, 11:22:27 AM
By Sports Illustrated...

1. Ohio State, 10.5
1. Oregon, 10.5
3. Penn State, 10
4. Michigan, 9
5. USC, 8.5
6. Iowa, 7.5
6. Nebraska, 7.5
8. Washington, 7
9. Maryland, 6.5
9. Wisconsin, 6.5
11. Rutgers, 6
12. Illinois, 5.5
12. Indiana, 5.5
12. UCLA, 5.5
15. Michigan State, 5
16. Minnesota, 5
17. Northwestern, 4.5
18. Purdue, 4
https://www.si.com/fannation/college/cfb-hq/picks/big-ten-football-win-total-predictions-for-2024-01hxsh9jbe0f
I assume this is regular season only?

Nowadays it pretty much has to be. Not that long ago everybody played 11 regular season games and maybe a bowl. I think the maximum now is 17:
  • 12 regular season
  • 1 CG
  • 1 CFP opening round game
  • 1 CFP Quarterfinal
  • 1 CFP Semi-final
  • 1 CFP Championship

So Ohio State's 10.5 could theoretically be 10-7 or 11-6:
  • Regular season 8-4
  • Lose CG to go to 8-5
  • Win CFP opener to go to 9-5
  • Win CFP Quarterfinal to go to 10-5
  • Win CFP Semi-final to go to 11-5
  • Lose CFP CG to finish 11-6

Granted, they probably wouldn't make the CG at 8-4 nor the CFP at 8-5.
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ELA

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Re: 2024 Big Ten Team Wins Predictions
« Reply #2 on: July 18, 2024, 11:58:11 AM »
Seems like the smart money is on unders, including probably MSU
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ELA

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Re: 2024 Big Ten Team Wins Predictions
« Reply #3 on: July 18, 2024, 11:59:04 AM »
Also, I thought Indiana is a mess.  MSU, Indiana, Rutgers, Maryland seem like obvious unders
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847badgerfan

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Re: 2024 Big Ten Team Wins Predictions
« Reply #4 on: July 18, 2024, 12:56:44 PM »
I'll take the over on UW. I'm bullish on them this season.
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bayareabadger

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Re: 2024 Big Ten Team Wins Predictions
« Reply #5 on: July 18, 2024, 01:51:10 PM »
Stats not liking UW for next year, but that’s mostly on the offense. If they get that in line and can survive a challenging schedule, could be interesting. 
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: 2024 Big Ten Team Wins Predictions
« Reply #6 on: July 18, 2024, 03:13:17 PM »
I'm not sure for Ohio State because there are two competing realities:

On the one hand, Ohio State is retuning a LOT, got a LOT in the portal, and hasn't lost more than one regular season game much lately:

  • 11-1 in 2023 with the loss to the eventual NC
  • 11-1 in 2022 with the loss to a CFP team
  • 10-2 in 2021 with losses to a PacCG loser and a CFP team
  • 6-0 in 2020
  • 12-0 in 2019
  • 11-1 in 2018 with a blowout loss to a sub .500 Purdue team
  • 10-2 in 2017 with a loss to a CFP team and a blowout loss to a mediocre Iowa
  • 11-1 in 2016 with a loss to the B1G Champs
  • 11-1 in 2015 with a loss to the B1G Champs
  • 11-1 in 2014 with an early season loss to a good-but-not-great VaTech
  • 12-0 in 2013
  • 12-0 in 2012
  • 6-6 in 2011 bad year, Tresselball without Tressel doesn't work
  • 11-1 in 2010 with a loss to B1G co-Champs
  • 10-2 in 2009 with a loss to a great USC team and one to a sub .500 Purdue team
  • 10-2 in 2008 with losses to VERY good USC and PSU teams
  • 11-1 in 2007 with a loss to Illinois
  • 12-0 in 2006
  • 9-2 in 2005 with a loss to the NC and another to the B1G Champs
  • 7-4 in 2004 bad year
  • 10-2 in 2003 with losses at Wisconsin and at Michigan
  • 13-0 in 2002
  • 7-4 in 2001 bad year
  • 8-3 in 2000 with losses to mediocre Purdue and Minnesota teams and a good-but-not-great Michigan
  • 6-6 in 1999 bad year
So in the last 25 years the Buckeyes have finished the regular season:
  • Undefeated 6 times, 24%
  • 1 loss 8 times, 32% (cumulative 14, 56%)
  • 2 losses 6 times, 24% (cumulative 20, 80%)
  • 3 losses once, 4% (cumulative 21, 84%)
  • 4 losses twice, 8% (cumulative 23, 92%)
  • 6 losses twice, 8% (cumulative 25, 100%)

Just based on the 25 years of history they've finished better than 10-2 well over 1/2 the time.  

On the other hand, when you get to numbers north of 10, there is VERY little margin for error.  If you pick the over you can only afford one loss.  
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847badgerfan

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Re: 2024 Big Ten Team Wins Predictions
« Reply #7 on: July 18, 2024, 03:18:34 PM »
I don't see an obvious loss here.

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LittlePig

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Re: 2024 Big Ten Team Wins Predictions
« Reply #8 on: July 18, 2024, 03:31:11 PM »
It seems like every single year Iowa is predicted to have 7.5 wins but lately they always seem to win 2 to 3 wins more than they should,. Usually by winning a lot of close, low-scoring games,  even when the other team dominates the stats.  It will be interesting if that trend continues in 2024 or will IOWA'S luck finally run out.

NW is another team that can sometimes win more games than it should,  but only every other year,  not every year.  Will this be a good year or bad year for NW? 

The opposite trend recently seems to be Nebraska.  Always losing more games than they should.  Team seems to be snake bit,  just can't pull it out, always losing close games in the 4Q.  Will 2024 be the year they finally turn it around?

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FearlessF

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Re: 2024 Big Ten Team Wins Predictions
« Reply #9 on: July 18, 2024, 04:56:03 PM »
I sure as hell hope so

Rhule seems to be too good of a guy to have that luck
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Temp430

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Re: 2024 Big Ten Team Wins Predictions
« Reply #10 on: July 19, 2024, 07:20:21 AM »
IMO Ohio State's toughest game is at Oregon on Oct. 12th.  Ohio State is breaking in a new QB and offense, kind of, while Oregon is not.  Also, Autzen Stadium can be a tough place to play, so I would guess the Buckeyes have a <50% chance of winning there at this time.
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Cincydawg

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Re: 2024 Big Ten Team Wins Predictions
« Reply #11 on: July 19, 2024, 08:18:18 AM »
Someone noted that taking "above" with 10.5 means only one loss of course.  That heppens, but is kind of rare for any single team in a given year, even a very good one.  I'd probably take over with Ohio State while expecting to lose at least half the time.

Then there is the vig.

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Hawkinole

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Re: 2024 Big Ten Team Wins Predictions
« Reply #12 on: July 22, 2024, 10:53:59 AM »
Quote from: Temp430 on July 18, 2024, 11:22:27 AM
By Sports Illustrated...

1. Ohio State, 10.5
1. Oregon, 10.5
3. Penn State, 10
4. Michigan, 9
5. USC, 8.5
6. Iowa, 7.5
6. Nebraska, 7.5
8. Washington, 7
9. Maryland, 6.5
9. Wisconsin, 6.5
11. Rutgers, 6
12. Illinois, 5.5
12. Indiana, 5.5
12. UCLA, 5.5
15. Michigan State, 5
16. Minnesota, 5
17. Northwestern, 4.5
18. Purdue, 4


https://www.si.com/fannation/college/cfb-hq/picks/big-ten-football-win-total-predictions-for-2024-01hxsh9jbe0f
By USA Today sports journalists:

  • 1. Ohio State (8 first place votes)
  • 2. Oregon (5 first place votes)
  • 3. (tie) Michigan
  • 3. (tie) Penn State
  • 5. USC
  • 6. Iowa
  • 7. Wisconsin
  • 8. Nebraska
  • 9. Washington
  • 10. Rutgers
  • 11. Maryland
  • 12. Michigan State
  • 13. Minnesota
  • 14. UCLA
  • 15. Illinois
  • 16. Indiana
  • 17. Northwestern
  • 18. Purdue

Iowa has a favorable conference schedule, and thusly could finish higher: Ohio State (1), Wisconsin (7), Nebraska (8), Washington (9), Maryland (11), Michigan State (12), Minnesota (13), UCLA (14), Northwestern (17).
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TyphonInc

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Re: 2024 Big Ten Team Wins Predictions
« Reply #13 on: July 23, 2024, 09:47:51 AM »
Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 18, 2024, 03:18:34 PM
I don't see an obvious loss here.

[img width=274.571 height=500]https://i.imgur.com/t2lvKkf.png[/img]
@Oregon - The Ducks will be favored in this game. On Paper the two most talented teams in the conference, time change and huge home field advantage tips the scales in Oregon's favor.
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