2022-2023 B1G Basketball Thread

[ELA]

pretty sure i read somewhere he grew up an msu fan. and that's who most bama 'in the know' peoples are worried about.

I don't think he grew up an MSU fan, I think he was more of an Izzo fan as a coach, and when the Bama AD reached out to Izzo, he recommend Oats

Among the first calls Greg Byrne placed when it became apparent he would be looking for a new head men’s basketball coach was to one of the game’s preeminent coaches: Michigan State’s Tom Izzo.

No, this wasn’t to gauge Izzo’s interest in leaving a Spartans program he has established into a national powerhouse over the last 24 years. Rather, it was to seek out nonpartisan and unfiltered advice from one of the most respected coaches in college basketball today.

And it was that conversation that helped facilitate Byrne’s under-the-radar hiring of former Buffalo head coach Nate Oats as Alabama’s 21st men’s basketball coach on Wednesday.  “We talked about different names, but as soon as Nate Oats’ name came up he was, ‘Hey that guy’s a grinder,’ I think were his first words to me,” Byrne said Thursday following Oats’ introductory news conference.

Oats’ connection with Tom Izzo started simply enough as a fan.


Izzo’s first year as Michigan State’s head coach (1995, which also coincided with Saban’s first season as the Spartans’ head football coach) was also Oats’ junior season at Division III Maranatha Baptist University, which is located in Oats’ hometown of 23,000-population Watertown, Wisconsin.

Five years later (2000), Izzo won his lone NCAA Tournament title at Michigan State.

That next season, during the first of a two-year run at eventual Division III powerhouse Wisconsin-Whitewater, Oats made it a priority to implement much of the same drills that the defending national champion Spartans did during their practices.

“He was a big-time Izzo fan, studied their program and what they did (at Michigan State),” longtime Whitewater head coach Pat Miller said of Oats. “(So) when he first came to me, he’d say, ‘We have to do this drill, this is what Michigan State does. We have to do this rebounding drill.’ And he was adamant about it.”


In 2002, Oats accepted the head coaching job at Romulus High in metropolitan Detroit, where he spent the next 11 years coaching basketball and teaching five math classes per day — algebra, geometry and statistics — according to Yahoo article last month.

But school didn’t end at 5 p.m. for Oats.

During his time in Michigan, Oats took full advantage of his proximity to East Lansing and regularly made the 84-mile drive up Interstate-96 to the Jack Breslin Student Events Center just to be around Izzo and the Michigan State program as much as possible.

“I was working Michigan State camps while I was still a Division III assistant back in Wisconsin. I was driving to Michigan to work their camps because I respected Izzo that much,” Oats said Thursday. “When I got to Michigan … we went to their team camp every year. I couldn’t begin to count the number of practices — like 100s — (I spent) up there all-time. … As much as they would let me be involved in, that’s how much I was involved at Michigan State. I had that much respect for what Tom Izzo did. I never worked for him, but he was great to me.”


If Romulus had an off day and Michigan State was practicing, Oats was in East Lansing soaking up all he could, even visiting game-day shootarounds or team walk-throughs in hotels when the Spartans were off playing on the road.

[847badgerfan]

That's a hard-working man right there. 

[rolltidefan]

That's a hard-working man right there.

yep. and he's busy. come back in about 25 years, you can talk to him then.

[medinabuckeye1]

Jim O'Brien had two losing seasons, so and Holtmann is flirting with having his first one, so probably not much comparison there. I dunno, the way things are now I feel like moving on from Holtmann will send us straight into Minnesota/Nebraska levels of competence. If there was a clear guy out there it would be one thing. If you knew Nate Oats would leave Alabama for OSU you could pull the trigger. But if you are looking at the usual cast of randos then...

So first, if I were just being a random, anonymous internet a-hole I'd say this was a loser mentality, call you a loser, and move on.  I'm not because:

• I think this place is generally better than that, and
• I respect you as a poster enough to not think that.  

I hope we are on the same page.  My point, in general, is that I'm not simply being argumentative, I disagree and I'm genuinely curious as to the basis for your opinion.  

I'll give you the basis for mine:
First is the way I would view this decision if I were an AD:  
This would apply anywhere.  I would use the same method if I were AD at tOSU, UNC, or Kent State.  I would formulate a baseline which, to me, is "historical program performance".  Historical, in this context doesn't really include anything that happened on B&W TV's but it also doesn't just mean the 10-15 years before the current coach.  I want my historical period to be:

• Recent enough to be plausibly relevant
• Long enough such that I'm not comparing to a historically anomalous high or low.  

For BB the expansion of the Tournament to 64 teams in 1985 works as a good starting point, IMHO.  That is about 40 years (38 to be exact) and 37 tournaments due to scrapping the 2020 Tournament for COVID reasons.  

In the 38 seasons from 1985-2022 the Buckeyes won 7 regular season league titles.  That works out to one every 5.42 years.  

In the 37 NCAA Tournaments from 1985-2022 the Buckeyes had:

• 22 appearances, one every 1.68 years.  
• 8 S16's, one every 4.63 years.  
• 5 E8's, one every 7.40 years.  
• 3 F4's, one every 12.33 years.  

Holtman is in year six.  The Buckeyes CLEARLY are not going to win the league title this year so looking at all of the above:

• He is behind in league titles.  
• He is ahead in appearances.  
• He is behind in S16's.  
• He hasn't been to an E8's although he has another couple years before he gets below the average.  
• He hasn't been to a F4 although he has another seven years before he gets below the average.  

Literally the ONLY thing Holtman is ahead of tOSU's long-term average in is NCAA Appearances.  He has made it every year which is better than tOSU's average.  However, IMHO, that is simply too low of a bar.  In our league it is typical for .500 teams to make the tournament and not unusual for sub .500 teams to sneak in.  That wouldn't be good enough for me if I were AD both because the other metrics are more important and, more importantly to the AD, because being a .500 team isn't enough to generate excitement and sell tickets/merchandise.  

Ultimately, for the AD, money is the deciding factor and attendance is a good proxy for money because attendees pay to attend and because excitement generates attendees and also induces people to buy merchandise and make contributions. Ohio State plays in one of the larger arenas in College Basketball but they *SHOULD* be able to fill it because unlike a LOT of schools they are IN a major urban area and they also have a humongous student body on campus.  Attendance for league games this year:

• 12/8 Rutgers:  14k, 74%
• 1/5 Purdue:  17k, 90%
• 1/12 Minnesota:  11k, 59%
• 1/21 Iowa:  14k, 72%

That is, quite simply, not getting it done.  The only game over 75% capacity was when we hosted #1 Purdue.  Fans aren't excited because Holtmann has given them nothing to be excited about.  Our team hasn't won a league title since 2012 and hasn't been close since Holtmann's first year (with Matta's guys).  

Second is a more personal view of "MY" program at MY Alma Mater:
You seem to be concerned that things will get worse if we move on and I simply don't share that concern at all.  I do understand where you are coming from.  Minnesota and Nebraska ARE worse than Ohio State but, two things:

First, Minnesota's and Nebraska's long-term historical success is VASTLY below Ohio State's.  
Comparison of MN/UNL/tOSU (1985-2022):

• League Titles:  7 tOSU, 1 MN, ? UNL (Didn't look up their B12/B8 history but none here and I would guess none there)
• NCAA Appearances:  22 tOSU, 12 MN, 7 UNL
• S16's:  8 tOSU, 3 MN, 0 UNL
• E8's:  5 tOSU, 2 MN, 0 UNL
• F4's:  3 tOSU, 1 MN, 0 UNL

This is simply not an apples-to-apples comparison.  Minnesota and Nebraska suck but they've pretty much always sucked.  Ohio State hasn't.  


Second, I simply don't care.  
Making the tournament doesn't move the needle for me.  I measure success on two yardsticks:

• Winning (or at least being seriously competitive for) League Titles, and
• Trips beyond the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament.  

Since Holtmann has achieved literally nothing on those two yardsticks, my view is that Ohio State has literally nothing to lose by moving on.  If you aren't doing the two above things then you aren't relevant.  We aren't winning or even seriously competing for league titles and we aren't getting beyond the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament so our program is irrelevant.  It is time to move on.  

[MaximumSam]

So first, if I were just being a random, anonymous internet a-hole I'd say this was a loser mentality, call you a loser, and move on.  I'm not because:

• I think this place is generally better than that, and
• I respect you as a poster enough to not think that. 

I hope we are on the same page.  My point, in general, is that I'm not simply being argumentative, I disagree and I'm genuinely curious as to the basis for your opinion. 

I'll give you the basis for mine:
First is the way I would view this decision if I were an AD: 
This would apply anywhere.  I would use the same method if I were AD at tOSU, UNC, or Kent State.  I would formulate a baseline which, to me, is "historical program performance".  Historical, in this context doesn't really include anything that happened on B&W TV's but it also doesn't just mean the 10-15 years before the current coach.  I want my historical period to be:

• Recent enough to be plausibly relevant
• Long enough such that I'm not comparing to a historically anomalous high or low. 

For BB the expansion of the Tournament to 64 teams in 1985 works as a good starting point, IMHO.  That is about 40 years (38 to be exact) and 37 tournaments due to scrapping the 2020 Tournament for COVID reasons. 

In the 38 seasons from 1985-2022 the Buckeyes won 7 regular season league titles.  That works out to one every 5.42 years. 

In the 37 NCAA Tournaments from 1985-2022 the Buckeyes had:

• 22 appearances, one every 1.68 years. 
• 8 S16's, one every 4.63 years. 
• 5 E8's, one every 7.40 years. 
• 3 F4's, one every 12.33 years. 

Holtman is in year six.  The Buckeyes CLEARLY are not going to win the league title this year so looking at all of the above:

• He is behind in league titles. 
• He is ahead in appearances. 
• He is behind in S16's. 
• He hasn't been to an E8's although he has another couple years before he gets below the average. 
• He hasn't been to a F4 although he has another seven years before he gets below the average. 

Literally the ONLY thing Holtman is ahead of tOSU's long-term average in is NCAA Appearances.  He has made it every year which is better than tOSU's average.  However, IMHO, that is simply too low of a bar.  In our league it is typical for .500 teams to make the tournament and not unusual for sub .500 teams to sneak in.  That wouldn't be good enough for me if I were AD both because the other metrics are more important and, more importantly to the AD, because being a .500 team isn't enough to generate excitement and sell tickets/merchandise. 

Ultimately, for the AD, money is the deciding factor and attendance is a good proxy for money because attendees pay to attend and because excitement generates attendees and also induces people to buy merchandise and make contributions. Ohio State plays in one of the larger arenas in College Basketball but they *SHOULD* be able to fill it because unlike a LOT of schools they are IN a major urban area and they also have a humongous student body on campus.  Attendance for league games this year:

• 12/8 Rutgers:  14k, 74%
• 1/5 Purdue:  17k, 90%
• 1/12 Minnesota:  11k, 59%
• 1/21 Iowa:  14k, 72%

That is, quite simply, not getting it done.  The only game over 75% capacity was when we hosted #1 Purdue.  Fans aren't excited because Holtmann has given them nothing to be excited about.  Our team hasn't won a league title since 2012 and hasn't been close since Holtmann's first year (with Matta's guys). 

Second is a more personal view of "MY" program at MY Alma Mater:
You seem to be concerned that things will get worse if we move on and I simply don't share that concern at all.  I do understand where you are coming from.  Minnesota and Nebraska ARE worse than Ohio State but, two things:

First, Minnesota's and Nebraska's long-term historical success is VASTLY below Ohio State's. 
Comparison of MN/UNL/tOSU (1985-2022):

• League Titles:  7 tOSU, 1 MN, ? UNL (Didn't look up their B12/B8 history but none here and I would guess none there)
• NCAA Appearances:  22 tOSU, 12 MN, 7 UNL
• S16's:  8 tOSU, 3 MN, 0 UNL
• E8's:  5 tOSU, 2 MN, 0 UNL
• F4's:  3 tOSU, 1 MN, 0 UNL

This is simply not an apples-to-apples comparison.  Minnesota and Nebraska suck but they've pretty much always sucked.  Ohio State hasn't. 


Second, I simply don't care. 
Making the tournament doesn't move the needle for me.  I measure success on two yardsticks:

• Winning (or at least being seriously competitive for) League Titles, and
• Trips beyond the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament. 

Since Holtmann has achieved literally nothing on those two yardsticks, my view is that Ohio State has literally nothing to lose by moving on.  If you aren't doing the two above things then you aren't relevant.  We aren't winning or even seriously competing for league titles and we aren't getting beyond the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament so our program is irrelevant.  It is time to move on. 

I understand all of that. It is the exact arguments Nebraska used to shoot Frank Solich into the sun and consign their football program to two decades of mediocrity. Holtmann has been consistently good and never great and that is where we are. I agree, I want better than what we've gotten, but I also have criteria.

1) Does the program suck?

I've watched nearly every OSU men's basketball game since Thad Matta was hired. I enjoy watching them. When they blow, this is not a great experience. Holtmann's teams have consistently not sucked and made for a fun watch. Even this year they are still top 25 in efficiency which means even in their many losses, they are competitive. That's fun. Starting over is a roll of the dice, but likely means everyone leaves and we start with the mishmash of crap that many other teams have to deal with. That's not fun. So, certainly, we have a lot to lose by starting over. 

2) Can it get better?

I am with you that I want some greatness here and there and it hasn't happened. Maybe it never will. However, the recruiting is in a much better place than it has been in a decade. The NBA is sniffing around, which sucks sometimes (Sensabaugh is gone) but overall makes for a healthy program that attracts good players. I don't see a lot of upside in jettisoning that in the hopes that you hit the lotto on a better coach.

[bayareabadger]

Is Holtman worse than Jim O'Brien? He obviously recruits a lot better, but Obie had the Final Four run, two Big Ten Titles, and a few other seasons where he fell just short of a Big Ten Title. Even in his bad years, he'd muster a monster upset of MSU, or some such.

In some ways yes, others no. 

JOB had better highs, worse lows, plus the cheating and such. I think it’s an interesting comp, but I think the mood around OSU seems bad enough, this might be it. 

[bayareabadger]

I have this funny feeling that this may just be it for Coach Gard.

The AD showed he's not playing around when he whacked a supposedly untouchable* Paul Chryst.

I wonder who might be on his short list of hoops coaches? If he can get the home run, I think he'll do it.


* 2022 College Football Hot Seat Rankings: Evaluating the job security of all 131 FBS coaches - CBSSports.com

Speculation aside, this would be … odd.

See how the season wraps, I suppose. I feel like Oats had a sketchy rep, but I’m not totally sure what that means anymore.

[medinabuckeye1]

I know you are really sour. What coach out there would you like to see in Columbus?

I've got it and this is GENIUS!

The Ohio State Buckeyes should hire, as their next Basketball Coach . . .

Ready?

John Beilein!

Advantages:

• Deprive Michigan of their existing "safety valve" for when Howard inevitably does something stupid enough to get himself canned.  
• Very good career record, see below.  

Beilein's major college coaching record:
Five years at WVU:

• 2 NCAA Appearances (I know @MaximumSam will  not like that)
• 2 S16's
• 1 E8

12 years at Michigan:

• 9 NCAA Appearances
• 2 league titles
• 5 S16's
• 3 E8's
• 2 F4's

[847badgerfan]

That would make some heads spin.

[MaximumSam]

In some ways yes, others no.

JOB had better highs, worse lows, plus the cheating and such. I think it’s an interesting comp, but I think the mood around OSU seems bad enough, this might be it.

I dunno that the mood is really that bad. If OSU had any expectations this year it might be different. I suppose it depends on how things end up - pop a few wins in a row and everyone is hunky dory again. 

[ELA]

I've got it and this is GENIUS!

The Ohio State Buckeyes should hire, as their next Basketball Coach . . .

Ready?

John Beilein!

Advantages:

• Deprive Michigan of their existing "safety valve" for when Howard inevitably does something stupid enough to get himself canned. 
• Very good career record, see below. 

Beilein's major college coaching record:
Five years at WVU:

• 2 NCAA Appearances (I know @MaximumSam will  not like that)
• 2 S16's
• 1 E8

12 years at Michigan:

• 9 NCAA Appearances
• 2 league titles
• 5 S16's
• 3 E8's
• 2 F4's

Michigan should have taken their out last year, fired Howard for cause, and brought back Beilein with a succession plan.

He still lives in Ann Arbor.

Which also means I doubt he's going to Columbus

[MaximumSam]

Michigan should have taken their out last year, fired Howard for cause, and brought back Beilein with a succession plan.

He still lives in Ann Arbor.

Which also means I doubt he's going to Columbus

He also turns 70 next month. Which means its time for him to run for president.

[ELA]

I dunno that the mood is really that bad. If OSU had any expectations this year it might be different. I suppose it depends on how things end up - pop a few wins in a row and everyone is hunky dory again.

Mark Titus went on a pretty solid rant about how the most annoying part about OSU basketball is all of the fans who tune in for the first time after football is done, check out the record, and then yell loudly, either pro or con.  And those folks have too loud of a voice.

He said he's not saying Holtzman should stay, but that the narrative is wrong.

That said, apparently he's high on Notre Dame's wish list.  CBS named him their #1 target.  That might be a good amicable split.  But yeah, it's not simple.  Texas has had back to back "slam dunk" hires, that failed for different reasons.  North Carolina whiffed on back to back hires, before getting Roy Williams.  Anyone remember when Kentucky fired Tubby Smith for Billy Gillespie?  Duke is off to their worst non-COVD year start since 1996 in their first year without K.  Hell, three of the best coaches in recent Big Ten history (Izzo, Painter, Beilein) delivered the season they needed to (Izzo in 1998, Painter in 2015, Beilein in 2011) when their seats were incredibly hot.  That's all forgotten now.  The rosters in basketball aren't as deep.  The coach is WAY more important than in football.  You get it wrong, things go south quickly.  And the line between hot seat and elite can be one year of the right roster combination.  Holtzman a little got screwed by how Malakhi Branham was mediocre for half a season, then so great for the other half that he left

[ELA]

He also turns 70 next month. Which means its time for him to run for president.

Yeah, that's why I said the move was for Michigan to bring him back last year.  Bring in a defensive minded coach as his #2, with a 3 year succession plan