A look at current standings and what remains, then some hypotheticals:
- 14-5 Purdue, vs IL
- 11-8 Indiana, vs M
- 11-8 Iowa, vs UNL
- 11-8 Maryland, at PSU
- 11-8 Illinois at PU
- 11-8 Northwestern, at RU
- 11-8 Michigan, at IU
- 10-8 Michigan State, vs tOSU
- 10-9 Rutgers, vs NU
- 9-10 Penn State, vs UMD
- 8-11 Wisconsin, at MN
- 8-11 Nebraska, at IA
- 5-14 Ohio State, at MSU
- 2-16 Minnesota, vs UW
The 11-8 teams:
So the Michigan/Indiana winner will finish in second place at 12-8 but they could be anything from alone in second place to in a five-way tie with any or all of Iowa (vsUNL), Maryland (atPSU), Illinois (atPU), and Northwestern (atRU).
Any of the 11-8 teams that win this weekend will be at least tied for 2nd and they will *PROBABLY* get a double-bye. The only way they would *NOT* get a double-bye is if there are more than three of them in which case the tiebreaker loser(s) would have to play on Thursday.
10-8 Michigan State:
Assuming they don't suddenly schedule a make-up of the MN game, the Spartans can't tie anyone. They'll either beat tOSU and finish 11-8 or lose to the Buckeyes (whom they obliterated a couple weeks ago in Columbus) and finish 10-9. If they win they'll be behind any 11-8 teams that win this weekend, if they lose they'll be behind all of the current 11-8 teams plus Rutgers if they beat NU.
10-9 Rutgers:
If Rutgers wins they'll catch any of the 11-8 teams that lose this weekend in a tie at 11-9. If they lose they'll tie PSU at 10-10 assuming that the Lions beat the Terps. Whether PSU wins or not is irrelevant because RU swept them this season so they would win a tie and WILL be seeded ahead of the Nittany Lions.
9-10 Penn State:
If they win they get the #10 seed (no matter what RU does). If they lose they could still finish alone in 10th place or tied with Wisconsin and/or Nebraska for 10th, 11th, and 12th. PSU swept the Badgers and split with the Huskers so they'd win a two-way tie with Wisconsin. They'd also win the three-way tie as the H2H2H would be:
- 3-1 Penn State (swept UW, split with UNL)
- 2-1 Nebraska (split with PSU, won only meeting with UW)
- 0-3 Wisconsin
The remaining possibility is a 2-way tie with Nebraska at 10-10. In that case H2H would not be determinative because they split. The next tiebreaker is record against the best team(s) in the league, then the next, etc. Since neither team beat Purdue that would move down to record against the teams that finish 12-8 which would *NOT* include Iowa since Nebraska would have to beat them to get into this tie. How that would come out depends on which teams finish 12-8.
8-11 Wisconsin and Nebraska:
Wisconsin will be playing on Wednesday because the best they could do is a tie with Penn State and they lose that tie regardless of whether or not Nebraska is also in it (see above). Thus, Wisconsin cannot overtake PSU for the #10 seed so they WILL play on Wednesday. Still, beating Minnesota increases the likelihood that they get to play Minnesota again rather than Ohio State.
Nebraska could theoretically get out of playing on Wednesday with a win at Iowa and a Penn State loss at home to Maryland but that is pretty unlikely. That said, they are tied with Wisconsin and won the only meeting between the two so if they win they'll at least get the #11 seed and a game against Minnesota on Wednesday.
The bottom feeders:
Ohio State and Minnesota are locked into the #13 and #14 seeds respectively.
