B1G Regular Season Title Race:
The Buckeyes, Hawkeyes, and Boilermakers all still have a mathematical chance but it is only theoretical. Purdue and the IA/tOSU loser would need Michigan to lose all of their last five games while the tOSU/IA winner would need Michigan to lose at least four out of their last five.
Thus, the only team still practically chasing the Wolverines is Illinois. The Illini's chances frankly took a big hit when Michigan won in Columbus because the Illini can't get there by themselves, they need help.
Michigan is 11-1 with five games to go. Illinois is 12-3 with five games to go. Illinois is scheduled to play 20 games while Michigan is scheduled to play 17 so there is no mathematical possibility of a tie. If the Illini and Wolverines end up with the same number of losses, Illinois wins because they will have more wins and thus a superior winning percentage. Thus, here is what needs to happen:
- If Michigan goes 4-1 or better in their last five they finish 15-2 or better and win the league no matter what.
- If Michigan goes 3-2 in their last five they finish 14-3. Illinois could win the league but only by winning out to finish 17-3.
- If Michigan goes 2-3 in their last five they finish 13-4. Illinois could win the league by going 4-1 or better to finish 16-4 or better.
- If Michigan goes 1-4 in their last five they finish 12-5. Illinois could win the league by going 3-2 or better to finish 15-5 or better. Also, either Iowa or Ohio State could be in the mix by winning out.
- If Michigan goes 0-5 in their last five they finish 11-6. Illinois could win the league by going 2-3 or better to finish 14-6 or better. Also, Iowa, Ohio State, and Purdue could potentially be in the mix.
How good (or not) is Wisconsin? Wisconsin is 10-7 which is great but they are 0-5 against B1G teams with .500 or better records in the league. That 10-7 consists of:
- 0-2 against 11-1 Michigan
- 0-1 at 12-3 Illinois - home game remaining
- 0-1 vs 12-5 Ohio State
- 0-1 vs 11-5 Iowa - road game remaining
- 0-0 vs 10-6 Purdue - road game remaining
- 1-0 @ 8-9 Rutgers (Wisconsin's best win)
- 1-1 against 8-9 Maryland
- 1-0 vs 7-8 Indiana
- 1-0 vs 6-10 Minnesota
- 1-0 @ 5-9 Michigan State
- 1-1 against 4-11 Penn State
- 2-0 against 3-13 Northwestern
- 2-0 against 1-12 Nebraska
If Wisconsin wins again before the BTT, that win will be their best of the year so far.
At their current 10-7/16-8 the Badgers would clearly be in if the Tournament started today but they have a serious deficiency in the "signature win" category. Their best win is an absolute demolition of Louisville at home but that happened before Christmas. Since we flipped our calendars to 2021 the Badgers' wins have come almost exclusively against teams that will NOT be Dancing. That is a concern particularly if Wisconsin loses out to finish 10-11 in games against B1G opponents and 16-12 overall. My guess is that would still be enough to get them in, but not by much and they'd be looking at a REALLY tough match-up in the second round.