2020-2021 B1G Basketball Thread

[Brutus Buckeye]

it's bad when it happens to MSU, but it would behoove the Zags.

not sure a 2 week break is a good thing

[betarhoalphadelta]

Right, so is the WCC now a 2 bid league?  How does the committee treat that?

I would say the only upside would be the WCC tournament is a week early (usually), so by skipping it, the Zags would enter the NCAA tourney on a 2 week break

Yeah, but how many conferences have a situation like the Zags?

KenPom only has 3 teams in the top 30 from non-power conferences. Zags at #1, Houston at #6, and Loyola Chicago at #21. The NET rankings have more, but I suspect that any conference losses for some of those teams will dramatically drop them down the rankings, as they'll be tier 3 or tier 4 losses. 

I'd venture to say that anyone beyond 30 will probably be punished by the committee for not participating in the conference tournament. And any losses going forward for Loyola will probably drop them out of the top 30 in KenPom.

So we have maybe two potential bid-stealers, in the WCC and the American conferences? BYU wouldn't be a horrible auto-bid, and the American has quite a few teams in the top 100 of KenPom right now, so it's possible that Houston could get upset in their conference tourney, one of those teams make the auto-bid, and Houston still get in. The American isn't even what I'd call a one-bid league.

So I don't think it'll be a problem. There's maybe one or two teams in the entire country from one-bid leagues who can get in without an auto-bid. 

[ELA]

it's bad when it happens to MSU, but it would behoove the Zags.

Would it?  I don't think it's good for anyone.  I wonder if Gonzaga would try to schedule someone during that break, just as a one off?

[ELA]

not sure a 2 week break is a good thing

I meant the only upside to playing in it.  Sam had said it was almost all downside, which I agree with, but the one upside is not having that much down time.

[FearlessF]

at least they would still be practicing

[ELA]

at least they would still be practicing

Yeah, not all breaks are created equal.  And hell, Gonzaga might get better competition in a split squad scrimmage than playing Santa Clara.

But I still think 2 weeks off would be a disadvantage, absent an injured player getting healthy

[Brutus Buckeye]

Don't they generally get two bids? Seems like BYU pops up on the bracket most years. 

[ELA]

MSU podcast I was listening to wanted to remind everyone that Foster Loyer, as a junior, basically single-handidly beat Xavier Tillman and Duane Washington's team in the state championship.

That is all

[medinabuckeye1]

Yeah, but how many conferences have a situation like the Zags?

KenPom only has 3 teams in the top 30 from non-power conferences. Zags at #1, Houston at #6, and Loyola Chicago at #21. The NET rankings have more, but I suspect that any conference losses for some of those teams will dramatically drop them down the rankings, as they'll be tier 3 or tier 4 losses.

I'd venture to say that anyone beyond 30 will probably be punished by the committee for not participating in the conference tournament. And any losses going forward for Loyola will probably drop them out of the top 30 in KenPom.

So we have maybe two potential bid-stealers, in the WCC and the American conferences? BYU wouldn't be a horrible auto-bid, and the American has quite a few teams in the top 100 of KenPom right now, so it's possible that Houston could get upset in their conference tourney, one of those teams make the auto-bid, and Houston still get in. The American isn't even what I'd call a one-bid league.

So I don't think it'll be a problem. There's maybe one or two teams in the entire country from one-bid leagues who can get in without an auto-bid.

Testing your theory using the Worldwide Leader's BPI top-30:
The top-30 currently consists of:

• 6 B12, #1 Baylor, #8 TxTech, #13 TX, #17 OU, #19 WVU, #20 KU,
• 6 B1G, #3 IA, #7 M, #9 IL, #14 UW, #15 tOSU, #26 IU
• 5 SEC, #10 TN, #16 Bama, #21 UF, #24 Ark, #25 LSU
• 3 ACC, #4 UVA, #23 Cuse, #27 FSU
• 3 BigEast, #6 Nova, #11 Creighton, #28 UCONN
• 3 P12, #12 Colo, #29 Ore, #30 USC
• 1 WCC, #2 Gonzaga
• 1 American, #5 Houston
• 1 MVC, #18 Loyola-Chicago
• 1 MWC, #22 SDSU

The next three highest ranked team from each of those leagues is:

• B12, #60 OkSU, #108 TCU, #117 ISU
• B1G, #39 PU, #45 MSU, #51 MN
• SEC, #37 Mizzou, #44 Ole Miss, #65 UK
• ACC, #32 UNC, #40 VaTech, #43 NCST
• BigEast, #38 Seton Hall, #41 Xavier, #58 Providence
• P12, #34 UCLA, #35 Zona, #61 Stanford
• WCC, #33 BYU, #87 San Fran, #88 St. Mary's
• MVC, #47 Drake, #99 Bradley, #134 MizzouSt
• MWC, #36 Boise, #55 UtahSt, #81 ColoSt

It probably wouldn't make much difference because each of those leagues has at least one "bubble" team so either that team would win it and get in or they wouldn't and the winner would get in and that team would likely be left out. 


Where it could cause a difference is in a league that has just one bubble team that is REALLY close to getting in already.  Example:
Suppose SDSU sits out the MWC Tournament and in the Championship game UtahSt upsets #36 Boise.  Boise may have already sealed their bid by getting to the CG so that would become a three-bid league:

• #22 SDSU because they are top-30,
• #36 Boise because the UtahSt loss wouldn't be THAT bad and the wins prior to that might move them up enough to get in anyway, and
• #55 UtahSt because they get the auto-bid by winning the league. 

If that same upset happened in a normal year the MWC might end up as a 1-bid league.  That game would be a semi-final instead of the CG and losing in the semi-final would likely bounce #36 Boise without getting UtahSt the auto-bid, they'd still have to play #22 SDSU for that.  

I think the NCAA could just stipulate that if the regular season champion chooses NOT to play in their league tournament then the regular season champion gets the auto bid instead of the tournament champion.  If they did that I assume that each league would mandate that each of their teams play in the league tournament. 

[bayareabadger]

Almost no upside for the Zags to play in that, and if they get an outbreak right before the real tourney, considerable downside.

I mean, you also can’t let a conference get extra bids by letting teams bow out. Like the top of the Big Ten could all just say “nah” and let six teams battle it out. 

I think you gotta say that anyone who doesn’t show for the conference tourney is out. Inelegant, but logical. If the Zags wanna throw game 1, that happens, but they need to show. 

[MaximumSam]

I mean, you also can’t let a conference get extra bids by letting teams bow out. Like the top of the Big Ten could all just say “nah” and let six teams battle it out.

I think you gotta say that anyone who doesn’t show for the conference tourney is out. Inelegant, but logical. If the Zags wanna throw game 1, that happens, but they need to show.

Is that really a huge concern? How many leagues could actually get an extra team in by some lock teams forfeiting? Also, if a team doesn't want to play and claims COVID as the reason, who is going to argue?

[ELA]

MSU-Iowa game which was postponed is now scheduled for next week.

They also moved MSU-Nebraska into the postponed MSU-UM slot, to open up the MSU-Nebraska scheduled slot to make room for another makeup

[bayareabadger]

Is that really a huge concern? How many leagues could actually get an extra team in by some lock teams forfeiting? Also, if a team doesn't want to play and claims COVID as the reason, who is going to argue?

Hmm, as pointed out, the WCC might need BYU to step out two. 

I mean, maybe 10 conferences could game it. Maybe more? Granted, they might be trading spots with bubble teams that sit out. 

I'd still say go or you're out. Or cancel the conference tournament. I'd be fine with that. 

[ELA]

Thursday @ Rutgers
Sunday @ Ohio State
Tuesday @ Iowa

Yeesh, well then.  I'd take 1-2