2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread

[SFBadger96]

It's a tough call. Oregon is on a hot streak, so this might be different than the usual 12-seed, and there are a lot of Ducks (and also a lot of Badgers) in the Bay Area. Plus, the 12-5 is always a hot topic, and the national media likes Oregon (as does the betting line, at least relative to a normal 12-5; the other 5-seeds are -4, -6, and -6.5, where as the Badgers are -1.5). But I think I'm going with playing the odds and heading down there without a ticket and seeing what happens. I don't mind missing the first five or ten minutes.

[ELA]

Sure, but my argument about it's importance was different - that the sport is biased to rank March at least equal and arguably well above the entire regular season. I never argued that a game that finishes 15 minutes before the bracket release will affect that bracket.

Then what exactly is the meaning?

[Anonymous Coward]

Does anyone know where I can find a list of teams for the NCAAT stat "Wins over expected (seed)" for 2009-2018? I'd be happy to do some grunt work to compile it myself, but I need to actually find the data for each season to do that.

[ELA]

Does anyone know where I can find a list of teams for the NCAAT stat "Wins over expected (seed)" for 2009-2018? I'd be happy to do some grunt work to compile it myself, but I need to actually find the data for each season to do that.

Using the assumption the higher seed wins every game, or based on the actual likelihood of each result?

And then beyond that, games where as a seed they weren't normally expected to win, but based on results were?  Like Kansas State as an 8 seed losing to an 11 seed Loyola in an Elite 8 would actually work against them?

[Anonymous Coward]

Then what exactly is the meaning?

Autobids and banners at the very least.

[ELA]

Autobids and banners at the very least.

MSU was already in, auto-bid or not, obviously.
And as I already said, MSU doesn't hang banners for BTT wins, just as they don't for winning Maui.
They are just fun weekends.  But one is in November, before a December that is a lighter month for games, primarily played against inferior competition, while the other ends 4 days before the actual tournament, when health and rest are vital.

[Anonymous Coward]

Using the assumption the higher seed wins every game, or based on the actual likelihood of each result?

And then beyond that, games where as a seed they weren't normally expected to win, but based on results were?  Like Kansas State as an 8 seed losing to an 11 seed Loyola in an Elite 8 would actually work against them?

Honestly, I could assemble either, but really I want to reproduce this ranking for a more recent time frame:

https://twitter.com/fivethirtyeight/status/976871909106376704

[Anonymous Coward]

MSU was already in, auto-bid or not, obviously.
And as I already said, MSU doesn't hang banners for BTT wins, just as they don't for winning Maui.
They are just fun weekends.  But one is in November, before a December that is a lighter month for games, primarily played against inferior competition, while the other ends 4 days before the actual tournament, when health and rest are vital.

I don't find that persuasive. Michigan does hang banners. Plus, even if your Maui thing were a perfect fit, the entire sport is set up to more respect "Maui in March" than "Maui in November." Because the sport is infinitely more amped now than it was then. This second one is handwaving, sure, but it's handwaving that the entire institution of NCAA MBB has deeply ingrained and will take to the grave.

[ELA]

I don't find that persuasive. Michigan does hang banners. Plus, even if your Maui thing were a perfect fit, the entire sport is set up to more respect "Maui in March" than "Maui in November." Because the sport is infinitely more amped now than it was then. This second one is handwaving, sure, but it's handwaving that the entire institution of NCAA MBB has deeply ingrained and will take to the grave.

More amped up?  I guess.  But at least Maui has some impact on your selection resume, where as the BTT clearly doesn't.  If you could tell me MSU could win, lose Ahrens, and be in Duke's bracket; or lose/sit out, have Ahrens, and be in Gonzaga's, I'll sign up for #2 every time.  Nothing was gained from winning, and something very tangible was lost by even playing that game.  When nothing is gained from winning, I consider that meaningless.

[Anonymous Coward]

Sure, but MSU isn't in Duke's bracket *because* they won. That's coincidental. The main point is about banners. MSU kept Michigan from hanging one.

[betarhoalphadelta]

Does anyone know where I can find a list of teams for the NCAAT stat "Wins over expected (seed)" for 2009-2018? I'd be happy to do some grunt work to compile it myself, but I need to actually find the data for each season to do that.

Here's expected wins by seed : http://bracketodds.cs.illinois.edu/seedadv.html
I just use Wikipedia for the rest, either by team or by coach. For any prominent program, it's really well documented .

[Brutus Buckeye]

Conference Titles are wasted on the blue bloods. 

[ELA]

Conference Titles are wasted on the blue bloods.

MSU already won the conference title they care about.  They were just playing in a tourney that was added 20 years ago for no reason other than to make money.  I care very much about conference titles.

[Brutus Buckeye]

So they only hang banners for regular season titles?