2018-2019 B1G Basketball Thread

[MichiFan87]

Yes, my understanding is that tonight's win clinched a top 4 seed in the BTT for Michigan after Maryland and Wisconsin lost this week.

More importantly, tonight showed Michigan's potential, especially for next year, since Matthews was out, and he's the only player who could/should go pro this year (he's a 4th-yr Jr so he'll have his degree)..... It was great to finally see Castleton be the primary backup center over Johns and Davis, and he played well in limited minutes. DeJulius wasn't so great in the 2-PG lineup, but neither was Brooks so that backup role is still less decided. Johns is presumably the backup forward but wasn't forced to play because Brazdeikis and Livers stayed out of foul trouble.

[jhetfield99]

Man, MSU is having a season of 21st century Purdue-like injury luck.

[847badgerfan]

So is this just Miles burning down the locker room on his way out?

What happened?

[847badgerfan]

Fran suspended yesterday. No word on whether or not he is mad about it.

[medinabuckeye1]

Let the madness begin!

Entering March, as a reminder these are our tiers (with +/-):

• PU+1, MSU, M-3
• UMD-1, UW-3
• Iowa-1
• tOSU+2, MN+2, IL+1
• RU+1, IU+1, UNL, NU-2
• PSU+2

Based on those, here are the projected final standings/BTT seeds (with remaining games/projections):

• 17-3/26-5 Michigan State (@IU-W, vUNL-W, vM-W)
• 17-3/24-7 Purdue (vtOSU-W, @MN-W, @NU-W)
• 14-6/23-8 Maryland (vM-W, vMN-W, 
• 14-6/25-6 Michigan (@UMD-L, @MSU-L)
• 14-6/22-9 Wisconsin (vPSU-W, vIA-W, @tOSU-W)
• 12-8/23-8 Iowa (vRU-W, @UW-L, @UNL-W)
• 9-11/13-18 Illinois (vNU-W, vIU-W, @PSU-W)
• 8-12/18-13 Ohio State (@PU-L, @NU-L, vUW-L)
• 8-12/18-13 Minnesota (vPU-L, @UMD-L)
• 7-13/14-16 Rutgers (@IA-L, vPSU-W, @IU-L)
• 6-14/15-16 Indiana (vMSU-L, @IL-L, vRU-W)
• 5-15/12-19 Penn State (@UW-L, @RU-L, vIL-L)
• 5-15/15-16 Nebraska (@MSU-L, vIA-L)
• 4-16/13-18 Northwestern (@IL-L, vtOSU-W, vPU-L)

Tiebreakers:

• MSU wins their tie with PU based on record against the 14-6 teams.  
• Wisconsin loses their tie with UMD and M based on record against the 17-3 teams, Maryland beats Michigan based on record against Iowa.  
• Ohio State wins their tie with MN based on H2H but it only determines jersey color for the 8/9 game
• Penn State wins their tie with Nebraska based on their win over M

Based on these projections the BTT match-ups would be:
Wednesday, March 13:

• #11 Indiana vs #14 Northwestern, 9pm on BTN
• #12 Penn State vs #13 Nebraska, 6:30pm on BTN

Thursday, March 14 (Pi Day):

• #5 Wisconsin vs PSU/UNL, 3pm on BTN
• #6 Iowa vs IU/NU, 9:30pm on BTN
• #7 Illinois vs #10 Rutgers, 7pm on BTN
• #8 Ohio State vs #9 Minnesota, 12:30pm on BTN

Friday, March 15:

• #1 Michigan State vs tOSU/MN, 12:30pm on BTN
• #2 Purdue vs IL/RU, 7pm on BTN
• #3 Maryland vs IA/IU/NU, 9:30pm on BTN
• #4 Michigan vs UW/PSU/UNL, 3pm on BTN

Saturday, March 16:

• MSU/tOSU/MN vs M/UW/PSU/UNL, 1pm on CBS
• PU/IL/RU vs UMD/IA/IU/NU, 3:30pm on CBS

Sunday, March 17:

• MSU/tOSU/MN/M/UW/PSU/UNL vs PU/IL/RU/UMD/IA/IU/NU, 3:30pm on CBS

[ELA]

What happened?

He came out in the second half and benched his three best players for lack of effort

[ELA]

Not really a gambler, but Washington -13 at Cal and Michigan -13.5 at home against Nebraska seem like easy money tonight

Well, I hope I wouldn't have parlayed that at least.

[Brutus Buckeye]

You don't often a non-gambler display such an encyclopedic knowledge of Vegas odds and point spreads. 

[ELA]

You don't often a non-gambler display such an encyclopedic knowledge of Vegas odds and point spreads.

ESPN shows them now on their scoreboard page.  They just both jumped out to me when I was looking to see what Top 25 games were last night.  Follow some real gamblers on Twitter, and you'll see an actual encyclopedic knowledge.  Point spreads of Top 25 games are nothing.  They have bets out on O/U in SWAC games in a given night.

[ELA]

Not sure how I hadn't noticed it, but there's an article today about the relay process to alert Kyle Ahrens he's subbing in, because his back tightens up too much if he sits on the bench, so when he comes out, he stays in the tunnel to stay loose.

[medinabuckeye1]

Who is still in the race for what:

The League Championship:
There are three teams with 14 wins and two of them play each other which means that at least one team mathematically has to finish at least 15-5.  Thus, the other 11 teams in the conference are all mathematically eliminated because they each have at least six losses.  The league championship is between Michigan State (14-3), Purdue (14-3), and Michigan (14-4).  

As a practical matter, Michigan State and Purdue are co-favorites because they are a game ahead in the loss column and have easier remaining schedules.  Michigan has the opportunity to give the Spartans a fourth loss but other than that all they can do is win out and hope that Purdue stumbles (vtOSU, @MN, @NU).  

A top-4 seed and double-bye in the B1G Tournament at the United Center in Chicago, Illinois:
The three aforementioned teams still in the league championship race have clinched top-4 seeds and double-byes.  Mathematically there remains a possibility that one or two (but not all three) of them could end up tied with each other and/or Maryland and/or Wisconsin for 2nd/3rd/4th/5th but it wouldn't matter because the Badgers would lose any of those ties.  

The fourth and final top-4 seed and double bye is mathematically between the Terps (12-6), the Badgers (11-6), and the Hawkeyes (10-7).  Wisconsin loses all ties so they can only get it by finishing ahead of the Terps and Hawkeyes.  Maryland would also win a tie with Iowa so the Terps will get the #4 seed so long as they finish at least tied for 4th place.  Iowa would win a tie with Wisconsin or lose a tie with Maryland.  

A top-10 seed and single-bye in the B1G Tournament at the United Center in Chicago, Illinois:
Ohio State has clinched a top-10 seed and single-bye.  Mathematically the Buckeyes could finish as bad as 8-12 and behind MN, RU, and IL (along with the top-6) and tied with IU and PSU for 10th/11th/12th but the Buckeyes would win that tie and get the #10 seed even in that worst-case-scenario.  

The three remaining top-10 seeds and single-byes are mathematically between the Gophers (8-10), Scarlet Knights (6-11), Illini (6-11), Hoosiers (5-12), Nittany Lions (5-12), Cornhuskers (5-13), and Wildcats (3-14).  

Northwestern actually might be mathematically eliminated.  The best they could do is 6-14 and tied with Rutgers, Illinois, Indiana, and Penn State for 9th/10th/11th/12th/13th.  I'm not sure who would win that tie and I'm not going to bother figuring it out because the Wildcats will most likely eliminate themselves with a loss in Champaign on Sunday.  

[medinabuckeye1]

B1G Bubble Watch:
Locks 5:
MSU, PU, M, UMD, UW.  The worst-case-scenario for the worst of these teams would be 11-10/19-13 (UW) and the bubble is soft enough that that would get them in.  

Should be in 1:
Iowa.  The 10-7/21-7 Hawkeyes may already be a lock but I hesitate to give lock status to a team that could end up under .500 in league games and the Hawkeyes still could.  If they lost out they would finish 10-11/21-11.  That would probably get them in but finishing by losing five straight and six of seven including a home loss to Rutgers and a first-game exit from the BTT would make it at least debatable.  

Bubble 2:
Ohio State 8-9/18-10 has games remaining @PU, @NU, and vUW.  They are extremely unlikely to win in West Lafayette but the other two games could go either way.  Losing out would put the Buckeyes in a precarious position heading into the BTT.  

Minnesota 8-10/18-11 has games remaining vPU and @UMD.  They are extremely unlikely to win in College Park so taking out Purdue at home would REALLY help.  Their win at Northwestern was enough to get them back into Lunardi's field but they have been balanced right on the cut line for a while now.  If they lose both games to finish 8-12/18-13 then I think that they would need at least one win in Chicago.  

The league's other six teams would all need a miraculous finish.  

[medinabuckeye1]

This weekend's games:
Minnesota and Nebraska are off this weekend.  The other 12 teams are playing their 18th or 19th game.  

• Ohio State at Purdue:  The Buckeyes could certainly use a win here but losing will not hurt them much.  For the Boilermakers this is about staying on pace in the league championship race and maintaining/improving NCAA seed.  
• Michigan State at Indiana:  If the Hoosiers can make lightning strike a second time and accomplish another upset of the Spartans it might fire the Hoosiers NCAA talk back up.  For MSU this is about staying on pace in the league championship race and maintaining/improving NCAA seed.  
• Michigan at Maryland:  Michigan's slim league championship hopes are on the line here.  Mathematically they could get a share even with a loss but not practically.  For Maryland a win here would go a long way toward locking up a double-bye in Chicago.  
• Penn State at Wisconsin:  The suddenly surging Nittany Lions should not be overlooked in this game.  A loss for the Badgers could eliminate them from contention for a double-bye.  
• Rutgers at Iowa:  I believe that the Hawkeyes would lock up an NCAA bid with a win.  
• Northwestern at Illinois:  A loss for Northwestern would formally eliminate them from contention for a BTT bye (if they aren't already).  For the Illini this is about BTT seeding.  The Illini are tied for 9th/10th with Rutgers and the Scarlet Knights should lose in Iowa City.  The Illini are also only a game-and-a-half behind #8 Minnesota and only two games behind #7 Ohio State and have a much easier remaining schedule than either of those teams.  We are still projecting them to finish alone in 7th place but a home loss to Northwester would obviously change that.  

[ELA]

At first thought, you'd think if MSU lost when they had Ward, and Indiana played 3/4 of the game without Morgan, how well can they fare with that flipped?  But Ward was downright horrible.  I'd certainly rather have Ward than not, but I'd rather have no Ward than the Ward we had that game.