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It would be easy to look at the offense other than against Oklahoma and just assume that the OU disaster was a fluke but I'm not ready to do that because I haven't seen Ohio State's offense look good against a competent defense in a long time.  
Against OU:

• 19/35 passing for 183 yards (9.6 per completion, 5.2 per attempt), 0TD, 1INT
• 34 rushes for 167 yards (4.9 per), 1 TD.  Dobbins (13 for 72) and Weber (3 for 29) averaged 5.5 and 9.7 per carry which is great but the problem was that they combined for only 16 carries while Barrett got 18.  Barrett's carries were much less effective gaining only 66 yards on his 18 carries (3.7 per)

Against Clemson:

• 19 of 33 passing for 127 yards (6.7 per completion, 3.8 per attempt), 0TD, 2INT
• 23 rushes for 88 yards (3.8 per), 0TD.  Like the Oklahoma game, the RB's actually did ok.  Samuel had 6 carries for 67 yards and Weber had 5 for 24.  Samuel's 64 yard scamper accounts for about 3/4 of the yardage but the bigger issue is that Barrett got as many carries (11) as the two RB's combined and had negative yardage.  

Against Michigan:

• 15/32 passing for 124 yards (8.3 per completion, 3.9 per attempt), 0TD, 1INT
• 50 rushes for 206 yards (4.1 per), 3TD.  Once again, Barrett got the bulk of the carries (30 of 50).  

Against Michigan State:

• 10 of 22 passing for 86 yards (8.6 per completion, 3.9 per attempt), 1TD, 0INT
• 45 rushes for 224 yards (5.0 per), 1TD.  Once again, Barrett got the bulk of the carries (24 of 45) despite the presence of a RB who was doing better (Weber had 14 carries for 111 yards

Ordinarily an offense that is one of the best against bad defenses will also be one of the best against good defenses.  However, that is not always the case.  Some offenses are REALLY good at beating the tar out of bad defenses without being correspondingly good against good defenses.  That is what I am worried about.  Maybe Ohio State is simply REALLY good at embarrassing bad defenses.  It has been a long time since we have seen Ohio State's offense look good against a good defense and I'm not going to assume it will happen.  I'll believe it when I see it.  

So here's the thing, that list is a compilation of big name teams with recent success. But that's not a list of competent defenses. 

Here's where those defenses rank
Oklahoma: 85
Clemson: 6
Michigan: 2
MSU: 41

That MSU one is worse than the Nebraska defense OSU savaged (33rd) two games earlier. Right now the IU defense OSU was OK against for a half and then destroyed in the final two quarters is No. 20. 

This is all to say, the collection of performances above is less about "competent defenses," and more about days where OSU's offense didn't look good. And yes, four days they didn't look good don't look good. Four such games in the past 10 is not ideal, though there were some circumstances in two. Just thought it worth clarifying. Things are quite THAT bad, while not being as good as many hope. 

early forecast is for some pretty crappy weather in Columbus. that will most likely put a damper on gameday festivities.

I'm not totally sure who that favors. Might make it easier for OSU to focus on stopping Barkley run if the wind/rain eliminates some of the passing game.

Meanwhile OSU runs JK, Weber, Barrett all equally, maybe that's a slight edge vs Barkley the best overall runner on the field? maybe a push, not sure.

early forecast is for some pretty crappy weather in Columbus. that will most likely put a damper on gameday festivities.

I'm not totally sure who that favors. Might make it easier for OSU to focus on stopping Barkley run if the wind/rain eliminates some of the passing game.

Meanwhile OSU runs JK, Weber, Barrett all equally, maybe that's a slight edge vs Barkley the best overall runner on the field? maybe a push, not sure.

McSorley isn't a bad runner, either.  I think rain ends up being a push, hard cuts are tougher in wet conditions, but harder on defenses that have to react to those cuts.

By the time the whistle blew to end the game last week in Happy Valley, it became clear that the Big Ten's marquee regular season event would not wait until the final week of the season, but take place just a week later.  It's refreshing to hear Urban Meyer say of course revenge is a factor this week.  There's a difference between letting that help you, and letting it drive you, and so long as Meyer can make sure his players keep the Lion in the cage til kickoff, I think it will pay off.  The game last year changed the trajectory of James Franklins' program at Penn State.  It was in fairness the third game of what is now Penn State's 16 game regular season winning streak, but spiraling towards another middle of the pack finish and December bowl game, that was the game that turned the tides.  Ohio State had a 21-7 4th quarter lead, and was shutting Penn State's offense down.  By win probability, Ohio State entered the 4th quarter with a 97.2% chance to win.  Then the Nittany Lions got back to back 35 yard plays to cut it to 7.  Then a blocked punt set up a field goal.  And finally a blocked punt won the game.  Even still, Trace McSorley completed only 33% of his passes, for 154 yards, and they were entirely dependent on big plays, with 5 plays of over 20 yards, including 3 over 35, and still were outgained 413-276.  McSorley has become more comfortable in the offense since, and last week may have been his finest performance yet, and he picked apart the previously vaunted Michigan defense for 42 points.  Now Ohio State needs their "show me" game.  They had one chance, and Baker Mayfield ripped them apart, and put himself atop the Heisman list.  Since then they've been rolling everybody, but this is the first chance to prove it against real competition.  Penn State's offense has been great, but it's been the defense that's been the real surprise.  Is it for a real, or a product of the opposition?  The Nittany Lions rank 2nd in the Big Ten in scoring defense, and 4th in total defense, but their four opponents have been Iowa, Indiana, Northwestern and Michigan.  When Northwestern is the most statistically potent offense you've faced, questions are fair.  The Buckeye offense is a whole other monster, leading the conference in every major statistical category, by a wide margin.  55.8 ppg is 21 ppg better than #2 Penn State.  610.3 ypg is 150 ypg more than #2 Penn State.  281.8 rushing ypg is 40 ypg more than #2 Wisconsin.  328.5 passing ypg is 35 ypg more than #2 Penn State.  When a segment of the Ohio State fan base is still criticizing J.T. Barrett, as he leads the conference's top passing attack, while leading the conference in passing efficiency, and is 4th in the nation in Total QBR, it tells me things on offense must be going pretty well to get that nitpicky.
OHIO STATE 31, PENN STATE 30

I'm holding you to it ELA and take my beating from HB later

HAHA. No beatings Mr. Nubbz.
If I had to guess- it will be a super game and PSU pulls it out.   Barrett will not be a star, but against this, how many QBs would be: (from Eleven Warriors)


    -     Penn State sent extra rushers on 62% of first down plays versus Michigan.

• Michigan quarterback John O'Korn was sacked at least once on every second half possession.
• Eight of 11 Michigan possessions featured at least one Penn State TFL.
• Penn State sits No. 1 nationally at 3.54 sacks per game.
• The Nittany Lions rank No. 8 nationally with 8.15 TFL per game.

       

        Sometimes the better thing to do against that is actually to run the QB. Sometimes. But If the play calling does its job, which is to keep the defense honest, JT will be as OK as any QB would be against that.

They have plenty to do with the type of quarterbacks teams build their systems around

Am I reading this correctly that the implication is the rash of mobile, lower-ceilinged passing QBs is a problem for the sport?

In JT's last 3 marquee matchups  his QBR  vs Michigan 38.2,vs Clemson 15.2,vs Ok 21.1.He waterboards the bottom feeders and stumbles against the studs.After the Clemson curb stomping Urban said things would change and there would be open competition.Yet after 3 pedestrian series in the spring game JT was awarded the starting position.Buckeye Boards were on fire - really.Working Haskins or Burrow in for specific situations was the popular preference.Didn't happen Urban stood by his pet project..Burrow did break his hand at the end of fall camp.It's healed now but only him & Haskins will stretch the field
Take a look

2016                                                                         2017                          

tOSU beat Rutgers 58-0                                                   56-0

" " " "  " " "Indy 38-17                                                        49-21

" " " " " " " Nebraska 62-3                                                   56-14

" " " " " " "Maryland 62-3                                                    62-14

For a total of        220-23                                                  223-48

Factoring in we lost to OU this season and won last where is this drastic difference ?.So why should one be confident - asking for a friend

I'll try to hit all the points, so this will be disjointed. 

Three marquee matchups: This is true, and he might eat it Saturday. But CFB is a sport of small samples and if he has two good ones in a row, y'all are back in the playoff. They're bad, but not rending of garments bad.

Spring game: Spring practices are 15 or so practices. Three series does not a performance make. Maybe Burrow was beating JT the whole time, but spring games don't mean much. 

Rotating QBs: Not a lot of folks do it. Maybe it works. I dunno. I know sating angry people who are not very expert is not a way to run things. It's also weird calling JT a "pet project." He is by any measure a very good football player. Is he 99th percentile great? Probably not. But he's probably at least 90th percentile. 

Stretching the field: Do we know they can? Neither has faced a defense JT couldn't whip. I'm not going to dig deep to start analyzing exactly how good the passes against overmatched defenses looked. If someone can point me to a compilation, I'd love to. 

You last asked about being confident looking back a year, and push comes to shove, I'm not telling you that you should be. But if the answer is punting Saturday, then have at I guess, but don't expect a coach will do it. If OSU's defense holds, do you trust a novice over JT to not lose you the game with mistakes? Probably not. If PSU is scoring, chances are the stop-and-start of a first-year guy isn't getting it done. Maybe in some unlikely world, you get the glory of 59-0, but much like every inside zone can go the distance, you're not counting on it doing so. 

(Look at Clemson for this. Kelly Bryant is fine. His backup was a top-250 player. His backup was bad, bad, bad at Syracuse. New isn't always better, and there's often, but not all the time, a reason starters start)