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It's not sandbagging unless you don't believe what you write. I believe what I write. I don't see UW being able to come out of this one with a W. Too many things are against it.



From the Chicago Trib:



Michigan is getting Wisconsin at the perfect time.

The Badgers beat Nebraska handily Saturday night but got beat up in the process. Faion Hicks was the only starting defensive back to make it through 60 minutes. Caesar Williams (leg) missed the game. Deron Harrell exited with a head injury. The marvelous D'Cota Dixon limped off with what looked like a right foot injury. Scott Nelson got ejected for targeting and will miss the first half of the Michigan game.

Coach Paul Chryst had to use true freshmen Donte Burton and Rachad Wildgoose as Nebraska threw for 407 yards, completing 26 of 44 throws.

"A lot of guys played," Chryst said, "and it wasn't always pretty."

It begs the question: When will the sons of defensive coordinator and legendary 5-foot-8 walk-on Jim Leonhard be ready? Wait, Leonhard is only 35? Never mind.

Michigan doesn't strike much fear in opponents with a passing game that ranks ninth in the Big Ten and averages less than one pass play of 40-plus yards per game. But still. Shea Patterson has a cannon, at least by college standards, and field stretcher Tarik Black is getting closer to returning. Wolverines Wire reported that, five weeks past foot surgery, he has shed his walking boot.

Michigan is #13 in Coaches Poll and Wisconsin is #10.  In the AP Michigan is #12 and the Badgers are #15.   I like the Coaches poll better despite Michigan being favored by 7.5 points at this time.  Nor will I let the warm fuzzy from the pass blocking observed against Maryland make me very optimistic.  Wisconsin will be the best defense Michigan has seen to date despite Badgerfan's opening epitaph for the Badger defense.  The long range weather forecast for Saturday is for snow flurries and showers with an evening low of 38 the last time I looked.  Perfect weather for the Badgers to try their classic clock eating ball control running game.

Coaches/AP poll are pretty meaningless until the end of the year imo. S&P+ is probably more accurate.
Notre Dame is the best defense that Michigan has seen to date, including Wisconsin's. S&P+ has the Domers unit ranked #5. Wisconsin's is ranked 55th. ND might be the best defense they'll have seen all year.
It will be a close game just because Wisconsin is a good team and also because: Harboffense.
Michigan tends to play a lot better at home than they do on the road. That is the only thing giving me hope. They probably beat a good Wisconsin team at home in a close game this week, then turn around and get embarrassed in East Lansing the next.

It won't be until December that we know for sure which QB match-up was the best of the season, but this will be one of the good ones:

Weird stats, I wonder how they calculate them?

Haskins has more yards, more TDs, less interceptions, higher completion %, higher QBR, higher passing rating, and HIGHER YARDS PER COMPLETION.
He is ahead of even Bama’s qb in all these except yards per.  

Patterson and Hornibrook are not even in the top 20 in those ratings.  

Anyone see Hornibrook in Iowa City, 2.5 weeks ago? What he did against a bitter rival in the toughest venue in the conference was amazing.

Anyone see Hornibrook in Iowa City, 2.5 weeks ago? What he did against a bitter rival in the toughest venue in the conference was amazing.

Hey, I have been a Hornibrook fan for a long time.  I am not saying they aren’t both excellent QBs, because stat number 1 is called winning.
I am just curious how those PFF advanced stats look like that when they seem to ignore every single measure that you would look at for a qb, including QBR both adjusted and unadjusted- which take specific situations into account.

Anyone see Hornibrook in Iowa City, 2.5 weeks ago? What he did against a bitter rival in the toughest venue in the conference was amazing.

Iowa's defense isn't Michigan's defense.
Having said that, Michigan's safeties can be had in man coverage. Not sure Wisc has the guys to expose them though. Josh Metellus and Tyree Kinnel are both just average players at best. If Wisconsin wants big plays- those are the guys to target. Don Brown's scheme leaves them in man to man way more than they should be. They just can't do it. Aren't good enough athletes to man up.
The CB's 1-2-3-4 is about as good as it gets. LaVert Hill, David Long, and Ambry Thomas are all uber-talented and were Army All-Americans top 100 recruits. Thomas is one of the fastest guys in the B1G. Those 3 guys are all future NFL draft picks. And the funny thing is fifth year senior 3* Brandon Watson has taken his game to the next level and has been even better than that ballyhooed trio. It's honestly as good and deep as I have ever seen Michigan at CB.
Devin Bush is an animal. Basically the perfect LB'er. His closing speed is unreal for a LB. Josh Ross is a big hitter, great instincts in the run game but kinda so so in coverage. Devin Gil might be even faster than Bush, but he's nowhere near the player. Doesn't have the same kind of natural instincts. He flashes that speed from time to time though on blitzes and cleans up in the screen game. Khaleke Hudson is a blitzing TFL machine. 5th year Noah Furbush gets reps sprinkled in- he's more of a pass rush specialist than every down LB though.
They've been banged up along the DL but former 5* hot-shot Aubrey Solomon who started some games last year as a true freshman should be back this week or next. 5th year senior DT Lawrence Marshall was injured but he's back to 100% and playing pretty well the past few weeks. Sounds like Rashan Gary and DT Carlo Kemp are good to go. DT Mike Dwumfour is still up in the air. He was carted off against Maryland but word is it's not nearly as serious as originally thought. Dwumfour started off pretty bad first couple weeks, but last two weeks he's come alive and has been a terror on the inside as a pass rusher. If he can't go, they might wind up having to slide Gary inside on pass rush downs. Chase Winovich has been playing out of his mind all year. So have a pair of sophomore DE's Kwity Paye and Josh Uche. Paye and Uche are explosive pass rushing ends. Both of those guys have honestly been the most explosive pass rushers on the defense- Winoivch and Gary included. DL had been pretty banged up to start the season but it's rounding into form.

Michigan's defense is very legit. The more that offense carries it's own weight- man the scarier that defense has started to look. Maryland basically had like 80 yards and 0 points that game. 7 of their points were from a kickoff return, and the last 14 points and 140 of their 220 yards were in garbage time in the 4th QTR against mostly back-ups.