Teams with 1st Loss Week 9:
Liberty
Navy
Teams with 2nd Loss Week 9:
Syracuse
UNLV
Illinois
Louisiana State
Missouri
Duke
Louisiana-Monroe
Teams with 1st Win Week 9:
(Kennesaw State)
Percent of Teams with 1st Loss:
Week 1: 28.4% (38 of 134)
Week 2: 37.5% (36 of 96)
Week 3: 28.3% (17 of 60)
Week 4: 39.5% (17 of 43)
Week 5: 26.9% (7 of 26)
Week 6: 36.8% (7 of 19)
Week 7: 8.3% (1 of 12)
Week 8: 9.1% (1 of 11)
Week 9: 20% (2 of 10)
Maximum number of Undefeated Teams at the End of the Regular Season: 5
-We are down one this week as we lost our last undefeated in Conference USA after Liberty got stunned by Kennesaw State. Before the conference championship games, we can have 3 undefeated teams in the Big Ten if they all win out (Oregon, Indiana, and Penn State). That leaves our remaining possibilities of undefeateds at the end of the regular season as 2 of Indiana/Oregon/Penn State, plus Pitt/Miami (FL), BYU/Iowa State, and Army.
Maximum Number of Games between Undefeated Teams in the Regular Season: 3
-We can no longer have an undefeated Army vs. Navy. Our only remaining games between undefeated teams the rest of the year will be in the conference championship games in the Big Ten, ACC, and Big 12.
Week 9 Thoughts:
-Kennesaw State was transitioning to FBS and winless. Liberty was coming off a New Years Six bowl and and undefeated. Kennesaw State got its its first win and Liberty got its first loss. That is a way for your first win as as an FBS member. Only Kent State remains winless.
-The Texas A&M Aggies are atop the SEC all by themselves. By beating LSU they improbably sit alone atop the standings. LSU has no margin of error left in the playoff chase as they now have two losses and likely cannot afford a 3rd. Meanwhile, Texas survived against Vandy and Alabama beat a Missouri team that had been winning, but not looking great.
-Ohio State looked less than impressive, but came back from behind at home to beat Nebraska. Penn State won on the road against Wisconsin to set-up the Big Ten for another huge game this weekend. Meanwhile, Oregon easily beat a ranked Illinois and Indiana is still undefeated after beating Washington.
-Pitt has gone kind of under the radar for an undefeated team, but they looked good in a Thursday win over Syracuse and are moving up the rankings. SMU survived a battle of 1-loss teams vs. Duke and the magical season continues. They play each other next week. The ACC still has 4 undefeated and 1-loss teams and its best chance at getting two in is to have at least two of those at the end.
-BYU ended up an underdog at UCF, but won and stays unbeaten while Kansas State had a come from behind win to beat instate rival Kansas. Iowa State was off. Those 3 remain with 1-loss or undefeated and two of them finishing that way is the Big 12's the best chance for two in. Colorado won this week vs. Cincinnati. Their only path in the playoff is probably through a Big 12 Championship, but they are 4-1 in conference.
-Notre Dame almost certainly controls their destiny for the playoff. Texas A&M winning continues to help the cause along with Army and Navy being better.
Group of 5 Race:
-Liberty's loss to FBS transitioning Kennesaw State, combined with a schedule the committee isn't going to love means they and Conference USA are pretty much out of the playoff race this year (although how amazing it was to get the NY6 spot last year was after losing so much was still a great story). They join the MAC in this sense, which leaves the race something like this:
Mountain West: Boise State beat UNLV and is the highest ranked Group of 5 conference team. Winning out they'll beat out anyone except an undefeated Army. With a loss, them or a 2-loss UNLV will still be in the race, but would need some help.
American: Army is the last undefeated team in the Group of 5 after Liberty and Navy lost. They control their destiny 100%, but winning out would mean beating Notre Dame. Should they lose 1, I believe a 1-loss Boise State has an advantage over them. If we are talking a 2-loss American champ (Army, Navy, Tulane, or Memphis) it could probably go either way vs. a 2-loss Mountain West champ and maybe a 1-loss Sun Belt champ.
Sun Belt: Louisiana-Monroe lost last week, which leaves only Louisiana-Lafayette with 1-loss. They need to win out and need at least two loss champs in the Mountain West and American and likely need some help even there (3 loss champs would be better). Their one loss was to Tulane which doesn't help in an American champ comparison if the American champ is Tulane or beat Tulane.
Week 10 Thoughts:
-We have 2 games between an undefeated and 1-loss teams this week.
1-loss Ohio State at undefeated Penn State: The knock on Franklin at Penn State has been he wins the games he is supposed to, but never against the top teams of the country. This is a huge chance to change that against an Ohio State team who did not look good against Nebraska last week. Ohio State will be unlikely to make it to Indianapolis with a loss, but would still be a strong playoff contender (but be looking around nervously). Penn State would likely still control their playoff destiny, but not their Big Ten destiny with a loss.
Undefeated Pitt vs. 1-loss SMU: A large surprising very big game in the ACC. This might be SMU's hardest remaining regular season game. Win it and they legitimately need to be looked at as a team with a road to the ACC Championship. They don't play Clemson or Miami. If Pitt wins, it potentially sets up a monster game between them and Clemson in two weeks. SMU is a 7.5 point favorite.
1-loss Louisiana-Lafayette at Texas State (Tuesday): I think Louisiana is the last Group of 5 conference school outside the Mountain West or American with a realistic shot at the playoff, but they need a lot of help. They are a 3 point favorite in this and must win it to maintain any chance. Winning big would help the cause.
Jacksonville State at 1-loss Liberty (Wednesday): Liberty is a 1-point home favorite. They are out of the playoff race, but need wins still to stay in the Conference USA race. A loss here likely wouldn't sink that, but they would need some help with 2 conference losses.
Undefeated Oregon at Michigan: Oregon looked very good vs. a ranked Illinois that beat Michigan two weeks ago last week. On the flip side, Michigan beat a Michigan State team that seemed to be improving last week and are at home with Oregon having to go cross country. It's a long shot, but it wouldn't shock me to see Oregon lose this or the game at Wisconsin. They are two touchdown favorites.
Undefeated Indiana at Michigan State: The Hoosiers go on the road as 7 point favorites. Does the magic continue?
1-loss Texas A&M at South Carolina: On the one hand, Texas A&M is alone atop the SEC. On the other hand, they have a loss against the other USC and it wouldn't take much to take them out of the playoff race. They are only a 3.5 point favorite here.
Louisville at 1-loss Clemson: Clemson keeps trucking since the opening week loss to Georgia and has looked very good since. Louisville has disappointed a little this year, but not been terrible. They are 11.5 point underdogs.
1-loss Memphis at UTSA: Memphis is an 8.5 point favorite. It's better for the American if they keep winning.
Texas Tech at undefeated Iowa State and 1-loss Kansas State at Houston. Iowa State and Kansas State both about 2 touchdown favorites, but a loss for either would hurt the Big 12's chances for two by a decent bit.
Ole Miss at Arkansas: Ole Miss is still in the playoff race with 2 losses, but needs to win and look decent doing it. They are 6.5 point favorites.
Remaining Undefeated Teams: ACC: 2, American: 1, Big 12: 2, Big Ten: 3, Conference USA: 0, total: 8
Miami (FL)
Iowa State
Pittsburgh
Indiana
Penn State
Brigham Young
Oregon
Army
1-Loss Teams: ACC: 2, American: 2, Big 12: 1, Big Ten: 1, Conference USA: 1, Mountain West: 1, PAC-12: 1, SEC: 4, Sun Belt: 1, independents: 1, total 15
Clemson
Southern Methodist
Memphis
Kansas State
Boise State
Washington State
Texas A&M
Georgia
Louisiana-Lafayette
Notre Dame
Tennessee
Ohio State
Texas
Liberty
Navy
Remaining Winless Teams: Conference USA: 0, MAC: 1, total: 1
Kent State
