| 2004. Aside from the weird 2011 season that was the last time Ohio State lost multiple Big Ten games in the same season. Also, again 2011 aside, that was the last time Ohio State went into Michigan week playing for nothing but pride. To keep both of those streaks alive, Ohio State needs to find itself. On one hand, that tells you just how high the bar is for this program right now, that a team sitting in the top 10, at 8-1, still in control of their own destiny for a Big Ten title, has its fans concerned. On the other, how can a program that is jockying with Clemson for most talent outside of Tuscaloosa be getting blown out by Purdue, and locked in a fight with a 2-7 Nebraska team? Both of these programs pride themselves on their ability to run the ball and stop the run. Michigan State leads the nation in run defense, and Ohio State has been fine enough there. But neither team can run the ball. The Buckeyes sit 8th in the Big Ten averaging 4.0 ypc, and the Spartans are down at 12th with 3.6. Will either team be even competent on the ground, and how long will they try to force it. The difference is that the Buckeyes haven't minded relying on their passing attack, putting up 368.8 ypg against Big Ten opposition, tops in the conference, and on the season, third nationally. When you look at the most prolific passing offenses in the country, seeing Mike Leach and Kliff Kingsbury 1-2 is expected, but Urban Meyer #3? Give him credit for adjusting to fit his personnel. Dwayne Haskins has already thrown the ball at least 30 times in 7 of Ohio State's 9 games, and at least 38 times in 5 games. J.T. Barrett attempted 38 or more passes 3 times in his entire career. Michigan State is certainly more suseptible to the pass than the run, but their pass rush and coverage has improved leaps and bounds over where in was in September. In conference play the Spartans have held opponents to 6.3 ypa, 5th best in the Big Ten, and have recorded the third most sacks. Their adjusted sack rate on the year is still lower than you'd expect, but what they've excelled at is getting pressure with just their line, allowing their linebackers to play more in coverage, which they've done a better job at than most past units, when Narduzzi was a pretty strong believer in staying in your base defense. That jives with Michigan State ranking much higher in standard downs sack rate than passing downs sack rate. It's against the run though where those front four truly dominate. Michigan State ranks #1 or #2 nationally in 4 of the 6 metrics that Bill Connolly uses to judge defensive line success against the run. But while Ohio State has slogged few the past couple weeks, it's been against teams that, despite other weaknesses, could throw the ball on them. Minnesota, Purdue and Nebraska have the three highest yards per attempt in the conference aside from Ohio State. Michigan State's 5.8 ypa sits above only Rutgers. Brian Lewerke is celarly not healthy yet, but the staff thought he was close enough to give him the start against Maryland. I don't think anybody but Dantonio and offensive coordinator Dave Warner thought he looked healthy enough to go. Rocky Lombardi showed a lot against Purdue, but he got first team reps all week. When he came in against Maryland, he looked like a backup. So while Michigan State may like Option B if Lewerke is still hurt, I'm not sure Lombardi is a guy right now who looks the same coming off the bench as he does getting the start. So for all of the shakiness of the Ohio State back seven, it's unclear whether Michigan State, with a beat up Lewerke, missing Felton Davis, and playing Cody White with a cast on his hand, can do what Minnesota, Purdue and Nebraska did against it. But can Ohio State put up big numbers on Michigan State if the Spartans force them to be one dimensional. They tried that against Purdue, and while they moved up and down the field between the 20s, they slogged down in the red zone. That has to be Michigan State's strategy as well. Let the 4 up front hold their own, and don't get beat deep. Once it becomes a phone booth fight and you can negate Ohio State's athletic advantage, it's a fair fight. Purdue is good at that, their defense has the third best touchdown prevention rate in the red zone. Michigan State is one of two schools even better. Ohio State is more talented than they've shown, and every inch of me seems to think they'll have enough when they need it. That was my argument in picking them to go into West Lafayette and win, when every sign pointed to Purdue. Now I'm waiting for Ohio State to show me something that they haven't shown since gutting out that win in Happy Valley. Win this game, and not only am I a believer, but I think that gives them a ton of momentum with Michigan coming to the Shoe in two weeks. But again, you have to show me first. And I hope not to be proven wrong. |
